The Twilight of the Bombs

  27 “none of the other three …”: Campbell et al. (1991), p. 33.

  28 “Like the German rocket scientists …”: Ibid., p. 42.

  29 “such as the Middle East”: Ibid., p. 64.

  30 “There was a remarkable consensus …”: United States (1992a), p. 154.

  31 “a start”: Ibid., p. 257.

  32 “was as unfocused …”: Baker (1995), p. 559.

  33 “We will maintain …”: “Chicken Kiev Speech,” Wikisource, accessed 25 Sept. 2008.

  34 “I think Bush was realizing …”: Stanislav Shushkevich interview, Apr. 2003.

  35 “Dick wanted to see …”: Baker (1995), p. 560. Emphasis in original.

  36 “Yugoslavia with nukes”: e.g., ibid., p. 562.

  37 “though we all agreed …”: Ibid., p. 561.

  38 “Shevardnadze would leave his apartment …”: Ibid., p. 569.

  39 Baker’s Princeton speech: United States (1992a), pp. 223–37.

  40 “The President is a little late …”: United States (1992a), p. 258.

  41 “We received the equipment …”: Stanislav Shushkevich interview, Apr. 2003.

  42 “We do not envision any …”: Quoted in Paine and Cochran (1992), p. 14.

  43 “The administration was suggesting …”: Ibid., p. 15.

  44 “Throughout its first three years …”: NRDC (1992), p. iv.

  45 “a private venture …”: Ibid., p. i.

  46 “one senior official …”: Ibid., p. ii.

  47 “not to accept …”: Quoted in Reiss (1995), p. 92.

  48 a date the Russian military determined: Ibid., p. 93.

  49 “It was immediately apparent …”: Neff (1998), n.p.

  50 an op-ed essay: Thomas L. Neff, “A Grand Uranium Bargain,” New York Times, 24 Oct. 1991, p. A25.

  51 “If the material in each …”: Neff (1998), n.p.

  52 “We have spent too much …”: NRDC (1992), p. 15.

  53 “Mikhailov said that the weapons …”: Ibid., p. 14.

  54 “Jim, can you clean …”: Quoted in Lambright (2002), p. 55.

  55 “Watkins finalized decisions …”: Ibid., p. 74.

  56 “When I became head of state …”: A full transcript of Gorbachev’s televised resignation speech appears at Gorbachev (1996), pp. xxvi-xxix.

  57 “A second call confirmed …”: Reed (2004), p. 2.

  SEVEN WAITING FOR FORTY YEARS

  1 “Yasser Arafat, leader of the Palestine …”: Ustiugov (1993), p. 34.

  2 “With the support of the nation …”: Nazarbayev (2001), p. 47.

  3 “If the international community …”: Baker (1995), p. 581.

  4 “Shushkevich was at pains …”: Ibid., p. 582.

  5 “Kravchuk was similarly cooperative”: Ibid.

  6 “Prior preparation prevents …”: Baker (2006), p. 5.

  7 “Our mission … was to tell …”: Thomas Graham interview, 2004.

  8 “There was not much disagreement …”: Graham (2002), p. 134.

  9 “Early on they indicated …”: Ibid.

  10 “deep snow everywhere …”: Thomas Graham interview, 2004.

  11 “They were very desperate …”: Ibid.; Graham (2002), p. 134.

  12 “Kazakhstan, of course …”: Graham (2002), p. 135.

  13 At a traditional banquet … hers: Ibid.

  14 “new and very expensive …”: United States (1992a), p. 11.

  15 “Let me describe some …”: Ibid., pp. 11–12.

  16 “The brain drain problem …”: Quoted in Arms Control Today, January/February 1992, p. 40.

  17 “The United States judged …”: Graham and LaVera (2003), p. 372.

  18 a thorough 1988 U.S. Office of Technology Assessment study: U.S. Congress (1988), p. 126.

  19 “I propose that we find …”: Ronald Reagan, “Address to the 39th Session of the United Nations General Assembly,” New York, N.Y., 24 Sept. 1984.

  20 joint verification experiments, eliminating nuclear weapons: See “Joint Statement Following the Soviet–United States Summit Meeting in Moscow,” 1 June 1988, Reagan Papers, University of Texas.

  21 “a rip-roaring snowstorm”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), p. 7, p. 10.

  22 Miz and Contactor: Sandra Blakeslee, “Soviets Prepare for Verification at Nevada Test Site,” New York Times, 15 Aug. 1988.

  23 “He was then the director …”: Ibid., p. 7.

  24 “Then he said, ‘Don …’”: Ibid., p. 10.

  25 “They were absolutely …”: Los Alamos Laboratory group interview, 2007.

  26 “When we walked around …”: Mikhailov (1996), p. 70.

  27 “In contrast to our test site …”: Ibid., p. 71.

  28 someone from the … Russian royal family: Quoted in Blakeslee, “Soviets Prepare.”

  29 “the side product was …”: Sig Hecker interview, 2001.

  30 he and his allies … funding: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), p. 16.

  31 “Our guys came back from Geneva …”: Sig Hecker interview, 2001.

  32 “It was too radical …”: Ibid.

  33 “He said Bush is concerned …”: Ibid.

  34 “an astonishing suggestion …”: Younger (2009), p. 30.

  35 “I’ve been waiting for this moment …”: Sig Hecker lecture, Stanford University New Century Seminar, 18 Oct. 2005.

  36 “Then it was just born instantly …”: Sig Hecker interview, 2001.

  37 “From the moment we stepped …”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), p. 20.

  38 “Academician Khariton told us …”: Sig Hecker, “An American Tribute to Academician Yuli Borisovich Khariton,” lecture for presentation at the Khariton Scientific Conference, Arzamas-16, Russia, 27 Feb. 1999.

  39 “He said it was very simple …”: Hecker, Arzamas-16 lecture, 1999.

  40 “The cost of failure …”: Los Alamos group interview, 2007.

  41 “those who in case of failure …”: Hecker, Arzamas-16 lecture, 1999.

  42 “an oasis in a third-world country …”: Sig Hecker, “Today’s Nuclear Challenges,” unpublished notes, Director’s Colloquium, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, 7 Jan. 1998.

  43 “The problem wasn’t ‘loose nukes’ …”: Ibid.; Sig Hecker interview, 2001.

  44 “the system of grave consequences”: Hecker, “Today’s Nuclear Challenges,” 1998.

  45 “I started talking to the Russians …”: Sig Hecker interview, 2004.

  46 “The list of topics …”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), p. 22.

  47 “Just about instantly he gave us …”: Ibid., pp. 23–24.

  48 National Security Council balked: Ibid., p. 24.

  49 “from Secretary Cheney …”: United States (1992c), p. 40.

  50 “I was not the head …”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), pp. 24–25.

  51 “During that trip …”: Ibid., p. 25.

  52 “I’m tired of Americans …”: Ibid.

  53 “we were on extremely thin ice”: Ibid., p. 26.

  54 “There were many people …”: Ibid.

  55 “Prior to my first trip …”: Younger (2009), p. 31.

  56 “intended to prevent …”: Stephen Younger, “Why Are Nuclear Weapons Important?” Videotaped lecture, Los Alamos Study Group, 21 June 1999.

  57 Sam Nunn led a Senate delegation: see United States (1992b).

  58 “The success of these countries …”: United States (1992b), p. 2.

  59 “to generate funds …”: Ibid., p. 5.

  60 “will be very difficult at best”: Ibid.

  61 no Nunn-Lugar funds had yet been expended: Ibid., p. 11.

  62 “strong hints that Ukraine …”: Ibid., p. 12.

  63 “assailed by nationalists …”: Sigal (2000), p. 254.

  64 “an almost exclusive [Bush] administration focus …”: Goodman (1995), p. 148.

  65 “a potent memo”: Ibid.

  66 “a pathetically inadequate response”: Kalb (1994), p. 220.

  67 “hot-button issue …”: Ibid.,
p. 222.

  68 “The place in history …”: Quoted in ibid., p. 107.

  69 “Baker indicated that he …”: Goodman (1995), pp. 148–49.

  70 “The president opened the meeting …”: Ibid., p. 149.

  71 “And no one is sure …”: Quoted in Kalb (1994), p. 106.

  72 “was rather cagey …”: Baker (1995), p. 661.

  73 “haggled over the protocol …”: Ibid., p. 662.

  74 “Finally Zlenko got the message”: Ibid., p. 663.

  75 “The START protocol was done …”: Ibid., p. 664.

  76 “In Lisbon I made the rounds …”: Graham (2002), p. 136.

  77 “Early the next morning …”: Ibid.

  78 “infuriated” … “There’s nothing worse …”: Baker (1995), p. 664.

  79 “explained how each was to enter …”: Graham (2002), p. 136.

  80 “Finally … at 8:10 p.m.…”: Baker (1995), p. 665.

  81 Dick Cheney balked: Graham (2002), p. 137.

  EIGHT PREVENTIVE DEFENSE

  1 “Our deputies don’t care …”: Skootsky (1995), entry for 7 Jan. 1992.

  2 “all nuclear strategic offensive arms …”: Quoted in ibid., entry for 20 May 1992.

  3 At the United Nations’ Earth Summit … budget: Reported in Marples (1996), p. 131.

  4 Belarus signed a Nunn-Lugar agreement: Skootsky (1995), entry for 22 Oct. 1992.

  5 “We want to get rid …”: Quoted in ibid., entry for 6 Jan. 1993.

  6 preventive defense: See Carter and Perry (1999).

  7 “When we took office …”: Ibid., p. 77.

  8 “With Bill Perry leading …”: Talbott (2002), pp. 108–9.

  9 “Through the fall …”: Talbott (2002), p. 108.

  10 “because we started out …”: Linton Brooks interview, 2007.

  11 “It required a reduction …”: Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, personal communication, 18 Oct. 2005.

  12 “You listen to those folks …”: Quoted in Talbott (2002), p. 104.

  13 “It was all called nonproliferation …”: Linton Brooks interview, 2007.

  14 “bypassing his own government’s …”: Talbott (2002), p. 118.

  15 “Progress on the storage facility …”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996) p. 33.

  16 “a ‘concentration camp’ state …”: Potter et al. (1994), p. 47.

  17 “Nobody even considered …”: Quoted in Jessica Eve Stern, “Cooperative Activities to Improve Fissile Material Protection, Control, and Accounting,” in Shields and Potter (1997), p. 312.

  18 “As [our] contacts grew …”: Los Alamos Science 24 (1996), pp. 33–34.

  19 “I do not know who …”: Neff (1998) (online). All Neff quotations in this section come from this (unpaginated) source unless otherwise specified.

  20 “This process … would ensure …”: Timbie (2004), p. 166.

  21 each problem in turn was … resolved: For a detailed account, see Timbie (2004).

  22 “The Kazakh government had no idea …”: Graham Allison Senate testimony, Subcommittee on European Affairs (1995), p. 79.

  23 “By mid-1993 …”: William C. Potter, “Project Sapphire,” in Shields and Potter, eds. (1997), p. 348.

  24 “He found himself in a vault …”: Cockburn and Cockburn (1997), p. 142.

  25 Twenty-seven … signed on … technicians: Riedy (1995), p. 7.

  26 “was to assay …”: Background briefing, Kazakhstan’s nuclear fuel, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), 23 Nov. 1994 (online), p. 7.

  27 “emergency drills …”: Ibid.

  28 “I was running the meetings …”: Jessica Stern interview, 2004.

  29 “By fall, who was going to pay …”: Ibid.

  30 “It was a very big endeavor …”: Background briefing, Kazakhstan’s nuclear fuel, op. cit., p. 7.

  31 2.37 metric tons of material stock: Shields and Potter (1997), p. 355, n. 18; Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board memorandum for G. W. Cunningham, technical director, “Staff observations of Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Energy Systems’ (LMES) support of Project Sapphire,” 21 Dec. 1995, p. 2 (online).

  32 “But it came back not …”: Cockburn and Cockburn (1997), p. 157.

  33 Bill Perry was working … Nurmagambetov: Togzhan Kassenova, personal communication, 2007.

  34 the Ukrainian parliament voted: Jentleson (2000), p. 125.

  35 “when it pledged …”: William Martel in Schneider and Dowdy (1998), p. 93.

  36 “The team, I want to tell you …”: Hazel O’Leary, DOD News Briefing: Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, et al., 23 Nov. 1994 (online), p. 3.

  37 “Many of the new Republicans …”: Alfonsi (2006), pp. 347–48.

  38 “putting together an orientation …”: Ibid., p. 348.

  39 Acquiring it cost … supplies: “Kazakhstan: Project Sapphire,” Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library, www.NTI.org.

  40 “The joke was on …”: Cockburn and Cockburn (1997), p. 159.

  41 “were sitting there in the cockpit …”: Quoted in Tirpak (1995), p. 7.

  42 Memorandum on Security Guarantees: Togzhan Kassenova, personal communication, 2007.

  43 The United States … exchanged instruments: Jentleson (2000), p. 110.

  44 China also weighed in: Togzhan Kassenova, personal communication, 2007.

  45 “Under the Cooperative Threat …”: Perry (1996), online.

  46 “I joined my Russian …”: Perry (1996) (online).

  47 “the single most important accomplishment …”: Sig Hecker, New Century Seminar, Stanford University, 18 Oct. 2005.

  NINE LEAVING THE LAAGER

  1 forty thousand tons of … concentrate: Horton (1999), p. 4.

  2 “The secret income flows …”: David Fig, “Apartheid’s Nuclear Arsenal: Deviation from Development,” in Cock and Mckenzie (1998) (online).

  3 four kilograms of highly enriched uranium: U.S. State Dept. to American Embassy, Vienna, 31 Dec. 1964 (National Security Archive, online).

  4 “South Africa has imported …”: Bill Brubeck (of NSC) to McGeorge Bundy, 17 Aug. 1964 (National Security Archive, online).

  5 South Africa began … early 1960s: Albright, Berkhout, and Walker (1997), p. 379.

  6 demonstrated an indigenous … in 1967: Purkitt and Burgess (2005), p. 39.

  7 Construction … began in 1969: Ibid., p. 38.

  8 “proselytizing the PNE …”: Mark Hibbs, “South Africa’s Secret Nuclear Program: From a PNE to a Deterrent,” Nuclear Fuel 18(10), p. 3.

  9 South Africa began secretly in 1961: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, partly declassified top-secret report cited at Digital National Security Archive, South Africa chronology; South African agreements with Israel: Hersh (1991), p. 264.

  10 “During the 1970s …”: Stumpf (1995), p. 3.

  11 Stumpf cites: Ibid.

  12 “This pressure by the USA …”: Ibid.

  13 Stumpf complains further: Ibid.

  14 “South African scientists …”: Ibid., pp. 27–28.

  15 “Senior South African politicians …”: Ibid., p. 15.

  16 “In comparing a gun device …”: Hibbs (1993), pp. 1–2.

  17 three deep boreholes: Cochran (1994), p. 163.

  18 “an unmarked light aircraft …”: Richelson (2006), p. 279.

  19 In the days ahead … over Vastrap: Ibid.

  20 “romantic notion about …”: Quoted in ibid., p. 281.

  21 “the necessary channels …”: Leonid Brezhnev to James Callaghan, 10 Aug. 1977, quoted in Tweedie (2008), p. 1.

  22 “that although he knew …”: Quoted in ibid., pp. 1–2.

  23 “The United States and other …”: Richelson (2006), p. 281.

  24 “long-standing [South African] program …”: quoted in ibid.

  25 “continue to monitor …”: Quoted in ibid.

  26 “as the onset of …”: Purkitt and Burgess (2005), p. 43.

  27 (The share of its weapons budget
… 1982.): Ibid., p. 254.

  28 “assassinations, torture, and smuggling …”: Ibid., p. 60.

  29 “studies of implosion …”: Ibid., p. 62.

  30 An all-sky … double flash: Hones et al. (1981), pp. 7–8.

  31 “the Intelligence Community has high …”: National Security Council memorandum for the Secretary of State et al., “South African Nuclear Event,” 22 Oct. 1979, p. 1. (National Security Archive, online.)

  32 “might then support nuclear weapons …”: Ibid., p. 2.

  33 “the South Africans have the capability …”: Ibid., p. 8.

  34 “not clear that there …”: Quoted in Richelson (2006), p. 291.

  35 “‘If there was anything …’”: Quoted in CIA Interagency Intelligence memorandum, “The 22 September 1979 Event,” stamped Jan 25 1980, p. 9. (National Security Archive, online.)

  36 “might find out …”: Ibid., p. 8.

  37 Stanford Research Institute study gave odds: Oetzel and Johnson (1980).

  38 Alvarez: The Adventures of a Physicist: Luis W. Alvarez (New York: Basic Books, 1987). For Alvarez’s discussion of the ad-hoc Vela committee’s investigation, see p. 248ff.

  39 “My mandate was …”: Quoted in Hersh (1991), p. 277.

  40 “The Israelis might have conceivably …”: CIA, “The 22 September 1979 Event,” p. 9.

  41 “If the South Africans had considered …”: Ibid., p. 10.

  42 “former Israeli government officials …”: Hersh (1991), pp. 271–72.

  43 “We created the South …”: Chris McGreal, “Brothers in Arms: Israel’s Secret Pact with Pretoria,” The Guardian (U.K.), 7 Feb. 2006 (online).

  44 “When we came to the crossroads …”: Ibid.

  45 The number of South Africans drafted … doubled: Purkitt and Burgess (2005), p. 55.

  46 “would have been akin …”: Albright (1994) (online).

  47 thirty grams of Israeli tritium: Albright (1993), p. 6.

  48 “replace the seven …”: Quoted in ibid., p. 5.

  49 “Phase 1 called for …”: De Villiers et al. (1993), pp. 100–101.

  50 “the questions that must be answered …”: Pabian (1995), p. 18.

  51 “was due in large part …”: Ibid., p. 10.

  52 “questioned about the reasons …”: Quoted in ibid., p. 19, n. 80.

  53 “The Y Plant was closed …”: De Villiers et al. (1993), p. 104.