The Bear and the Dragon

  Clark had himself a good chuckle and turned to look around the room. Just then, another uniform entered the room and looked around. He spotted General Kirillin and walked over.

  “Damn, who’s this recruiting poster?” Ding wondered aloud as he approached.

  “Tovarisch General,” the man said by way of greeting.

  “Anatoliy Ivan’ch,” Kirillin responded. “How are things at the Center?”

  Then the guy turned. “You are John Clark?”

  “That’s me,” the American confirmed. “Who are you?”

  “This is Major Anatoliy Shelepin,” General Kirillin answered. “He’s chief of personal security for Sergey Golovko.”

  “We know your boss.” Ding held out his hand. “Howdy. I’m Domingo Chavez.”

  Handshakes were exchanged all around.

  “Could we speak in a quieter place?” Shelepin asked. The four men took over a comer booth in the club. Falcone remained at the bar.

  “Sergey Nikolay’ch sent you over?” the Russian general asked.

  “You haven’t heard,” Major Shelepin answered. It was the way he said it that got everyone’s attention. He spoke in Russian, which Clark and Chavez understood well enough. “I want my people to train with you.”

  “Haven’t heard what?” Kirillin asked.

  “We found out who tried to kill the Chairman,” Shelepin announced.

  “Oh, he was the target? I thought they were after the pimp,” Kirillin objected.

  “You guys want to tell us what you’re talking about?” Clark asked.

  “A few weeks ago, there was an assassination attempt in Dzerzhinskiy Square,” Shelepin responded, explaining what they’d thought at the time. “But now it appears they hit the wrong target.”

  “Somebody tried to waste Golovko?” Domingo asked. “Damn.”

  “Who was it?”

  “The man who arranged it was a former KGB officer named Suvorov—so we believe, that is. He used two ex-Spetsnaz soldiers. They have both been murdered, probably to conceal their involvement, or at least to prevent them from discussing it with anyone.” Shelepin didn’t add anything else. “In any case, we have heard good things about your Rainbow troops, and we want you to help train my protective detail.”

  “It’s okay with me, so long as it’s okay with Washington.” Clark stared hard into the bodyguard’s eyes. He looked damned serious, but not very happy with the world at the moment.

  “We will make the formal request tomorrow.”

  “They are excellent, these Rainbow people,” Kirillin assured him. “We’re getting along well with them. Anatoliy used to work for me, back when I was a colonel.” The tone of voice told what he thought of the younger man.

  There was more to this, Clark thought. A senior Russian official didn’t just ask a former CIA officer for help with something related to his personal safety out of the clear blue. He caught Ding’s eye and saw the same thought. Suddenly both were back in the spook business.

  “Okay,” John said. “I’ll call home tonight if you want.” He’d do that from the American Embassy, probably on the STU-6 in the station chief’s office.

  CHAPTER 37

  Fallout

  The VC-137 landed without fanfare at Andrews Air Force Base. The base lacked a proper terminal and the attendant jetways, and so the passengers debarked on stairs grafted onto a flatbed truck. Cars waited at the bottom to take them into Washington. Mark Gant was met by two Secret Service agents who drove him at once to the Treasury Department building across the street from the White House. He’d barely gotten used to being on the ground when he found himself in the Secretary’s office.

  “How’d it go?” George Winston asked.

  “Interesting, to say the least,” Gant said, his mind trying to get used to the fact that his body didn’t have a clue where it was at the moment. “I thought I’d be going home to sleep it off.”

  “Ryan’s invoking the Trade Recovery Act against the Chinese.”

  “Oh? Well, that’s not all that much of a surprise, is it?”

  “Look at this,” SecTreas commanded, handing over a recently produced printout. “This” was a report on the current cash holdings of the People’s Republic of China.

  “How solid is this information?” TELESCOPE asked TRADER.

  The report was an intelligence estimate in all but name. Employees within the Treasury Department routinely kept track of international monetary transactions as a means of determining the day-to-day strength of the dollar and other internationally traded currencies. That included the Chinese yuan, which had been having a slightly bad time of late.

  “They’re this thin?” Gant asked. “I thought they were running short of cash, but I didn’t know it was quite this bad ...”

  “It surprised me, too,” SecTreas admitted. “It appears that they’ve been purchasing a lot of things on the international market lately, especially jet engines from France, and because they’re late paying for the last round, the French company has decided to take a harder line—they’re the only game in town. We won’t let GE or Pratt and Whitney bid on the order, and the Brits have similarly forbidden Rolls-Royce. That makes the French the sole source, which isn’t so bad for the French, is it? They’ve jacked up the price about fifteen percent, and they’re asking for cash up front.”

  “The yuan’s going to take a hit,” Gant predicted. “They’ve been trying to cover this up, eh?”

  “Yeah, and fairly successfully.”

  “That’s why they were hitting us so hard on the trade deal. They saw this one coming, and they wanted a favorable announcement to bail them out. But they sure didn’t play it very smart. Damn, you have this sort of a problem, you learn to crawl a little.”

  “I thought so, too. Why, do you think?”

  “They’re proud, George. Very, very proud. Like a rich family that’s lost its money but not its social position, and tries to make up for the one with the other. But it doesn’t work. Sooner or later, people find out that you’re not paying your bills, and then the whole world comes crashing in on you. You can put it off for a while, which makes sense if you have something coming in, but if the ship don’t dock, you sink.” Gant flipped some pages, thinking: The other problem is that countries are run by politicians, people with no real understanding of money, who figure they can always maneuver their way out of whatever comes up. They’re so used to having their own way that they never really think they can’t have it that way all the time. One of the things Gant had learned working in D.C. was that politics was just as much about illusion as the motion-picture business was, which perhaps explained the affinity the two communities had for each other. But even in Hollywood you had to pay the bills, and you had to show a profit. Politicians always had the option of using T-bills to finance their accounts, and they also printed the money. Nobody expected the government to show a profit, and the board of directors was the voters, the people whom politicians conned as a way of life. It was all crazy, but that was the political game.

  That’s probably what the PRC leaders were thinking, Gant surmised. But sooner or later, reality raised its ugly head, and when it did all the time spent trying to avoid it was what really bit you on the ass. That was when the whole world said gotcha. And then you were well and truly got. In this case, the gotcha could be the collapse of the Chinese economy, and it would happen virtually overnight.

  “George, I think State and CIA need to see this, and the President, too.”

  Lord.” The President was sitting in the Oval Office, smoking one of Ellen Sumter’s Virginia Slims and watching TV. This time it was C-SPAN. Members of the United States House of Representatives were speaking in the well about China. The content of the speeches was not complimentary, and the tone was decidedly inflammatory. All were speaking in favor of a resolution to condemn the People’s Republic of China. C-SPAN2 was covering much the same verbiage in the Senate. Though the language was a touch milder, the import of the words was not. Labor unions wer
e united with churches, liberals with conservatives, even free-traders with protectionists.

  More to the point, CNN and the other networks showed demonstrations in the streets, and it appeared that Taiwan’s “We’re the Good Guys” campaign had taken hold. Somebody (nobody was sure who yet) had even printed up stickers of the Red Chinese flag with the caption “We Kill Babies and Ministers.” They were being attached to products imported from China, and the protesters were also busy identifying the American firms that did a lot of business on the Chinese mainland, with the aim of boycotting them.

  Ryan’s head turned. “Talk to me, Arnie.”

  “This looks serious, Jack,” van Damm said.

  “Gee, Arnie, I can see that. How serious?”

  “Enough that I’d sell stock in those companies. They’re going to take a hit. And this movement may have legs ...”

  “What?”

  “I mean it might not go away real soon. Next you’re going to see posters with stills from the TV coverage of those two clerics being murdered. That’s an image that doesn’t go away. If there’s any product the Chinese sell here that we can get elsewhere, then a lot of Americans will start buying it elsewhere.”

  The picture on CNN changed to live coverage of a demonstration outside the PRC Embassy in Washington. The signs said things like MURDERERS, KILLERS, and BARBARIANS!

  “I wonder if Taiwan is helping to organize this ...”

  “Probably not—at least not yet,” van Damm thought. “If I were they, I wouldn’t exactly mind, but I wouldn’t need to play with this. They’ll probably increase their efforts to distinguish themselves from the mainland—and that amounts to the same thing. Look for the networks to do stories about the Republic of China, and how upset they are with all this crap in Beijing, how they don’t want to be tarred with the same brush and all that,” the Chief of Staff said. “You know, ‘Yes, we are Chinese, but we believe in human rights and freedom of religion.’ That sort of thing. It’s the smart move. They have some good PR advisers here in D.C. Hell, I probably know some of them, and if I were on the payroll, that’s what I would advise.”

  That’s when the phone rang. It was Ryan’s private line, the one that usually bypassed the secretaries. Jack lifted it. “Yeah?”

  “Jack, it’s George across the street. Got a minute? I want to show you something, buddy.”

  “Sure. Come on over.” Jack hung up and turned to Arnie. “SecTreas,” he explained. “Says it’s important.” The President paused. “Arnie?”

  “Yeah?”

  “How much maneuvering room do I have with this?”

  “The Chinese?” Arnie asked, getting a nod. “Not a hell of a lot, Jack. Sometimes the people themselves decide what our policy is. And the people will be making policy now by voting with their pocketbooks. Next we’ll see some companies announce that they’re suspending their commercial contracts with the PRC. The Chinese already fucked Boeing over, and in the full light of day, which wasn’t real smart. Now the people out there will want to fuck them back. You know, there are times when the average Joe Citizen stands up on his hind feet and gives the world the finger. When that happens, it’s your job mainly to follow them, not to lead them,” the Chief of Staff concluded. His Secret Service code name was CARPENTER, and he’d just constructed a box for his President to stay inside.

  Jack nodded and stubbed out the smoke. He might be the Most Powerful Man in the World, but his power came from the people, and as it was theirs to give, it was also sometimes theirs to exercise.

  Few people could simply open the door to the Oval Office and walk in, but George Winston was one of them, mainly because the Secret Service belonged to him. Mark Gant was with him, looking as though he’d just run a marathon chased by a dozen armed and angry Marines in jeeps.

  “Hey, Jack.”

  “George. Mark, you look like hell,” Ryan said. “Oh, you just flew in, didn’t you?”

  “Is this Washington or Shanghai?” Gant offered, as rather a wan joke.

  “We took the tunnel. Jesus, have you seen the demonstrators outside? I think they want you to nuke Beijing,” SecTreas observed. The President just pointed at his bank of television sets by way of an answer.

  “Hell, why are they demonstrating here? I’m on their side—at least I think I am. Anyway, what brings you over?”

  “Check this out.” Winston nodded to Gant.

  “Mr. President, these are the PRC’s current currency accounts. We keep tabs on currency trading worldwide to make sure we know where the dollar is—which means we pretty much know where all the hard currency is in the world.”

  “Okay.” Ryan knew about that—sort of. He didn’t worry much about it, since the dollar was in pretty good shape, and the nonsqueaky wheel didn’t need any grease. “So?”

  “So, the PRC’s liquidity situation is in the shitter,” Gant reported. “Maybe that’s why they were so pushy in the trade talks. If so, they picked the wrong way to approach us. They demanded instead of asked.”

  Ryan looked down the columns of numbers. “Damn, where have they been dumping all their money?”

  “Buying military hardware. France and Russia, mostly, but a lot went to Israel, too.” It was not widely known that the PRC had spent a considerable sum of money in Israel, mainly paid to IDI—Israel Defense Industries—to buy American-designed hardware manufactured under license in Israel. It was stuff the Chinese could not purchase directly from America, including guns for their tanks and air-to-air missiles for their fighter aircraft. America had winked at the transactions for years. In conducting this business, Israel had turned its back on Taiwan, despite the fact that both countries had produced their nuclear weapons as a joint venture, back when they’d stuck together—along with South Africa—as international pariahs with no other friends in that particular area. In polite company, it was called realpolitik. In other areas of human activity, it was called fuck your buddy.

  “And?” Ryan asked.

  “And they’ve spent their entire trade surplus this way,” Gant reported. “All of it, mainly on short-term purchase items, but some long-term as well, and for the long-term stuff they had to pay cash up front because of the nature of the transactions. The producers need the cash to run the production, and they don’t want to get stuck holding the bag. Not too many people need five thousand tank guns,” Gant explained. “The market is kinda exclusive.”

  “So?”

  “So, China is essentially out of cash. And they have real short-term cash needs. Like oil,” TELESCOPE went on. “China’s a net importer of oil. Production in their domestic fields falls well short, even though their needs are not really that great. Not too many Chinese citizens own cars. They have enough cash for three months’ worth of oil, and then they come up short. The international oil market demands prompt payment. They can skate for a month, maybe six weeks, but after that, the tankers will turn around in mid-ocean and go somewhere else—they can do that, you know—and then the PRC runs out. It’ll be like running into a wall, sir. Smack. No more oil, and then their country starts coming to a stop, including their military, which is their largest oil consumer. They’ve been running unusually high for some years because of increased activity in their maneuvers and training and stuff. They probably have strategic reserves, but we don’t know exactly how much. And that can run out, too. We’ve been expecting them to make a move on the Spratly Islands. There’s oil there, and they’ve been making noises about it off and on for about ten years, but the Philippines and other countries in the area have made claims, too, and they probably expect us to side with the Philippines for historical reasons. Not to mention, Seventh Fleet is still the biggest kid on the block in that part of the world.”

  “Yeah.” Ryan nodded. “If it came to a showdown, the Philippines appear to have the best claim on the islands, and we would back them up. We’ve shed blood together in the past, and that counts. Go on.”

  “So, John Chinaman is short of oil, and he may not have the cash t
o pay for it, especially if our trade with them goes down the toilet. They need our dollars. The yuan isn’t very strong anyway. International trading is also done in dollars, and as I just told you, sir, they’ve spent most of them.”

  “What are you telling me?”

  “Sir, the PRC is just about bankrupt. In a month or so, they’re going to find that out, and it’s going to be a bit of a shock for them.”

  “When did we find this out?”

  “That’s my doing, Jack,” the Secretary of the Treasury said. “I called up these documents earlier today, and then I had Mark go over them. He’s our best man for economic modeling, even whacked out with jet lag.”

  “So, we can squeeze them on this?”

  “That’s one option.”

  “What if these demonstrations take hold?”

  Gant and Winston shrugged simultaneously. “That’s where psychology enters into the equation,” said Winston. “We can predict it to some extent on Wall Street—that’s how I made most of my money—but psychoanalyzing a country is beyond my ken. That’s your job, pal. I just run your accounting office across the street.”

  “I need more than that, George.”

  Another shrug. “If the average citizen boycotts Chinese goods, and/or if American companies who do business over there start trimming their sails—”

  “That’s damned likely,” Gant interjected. “This has got to have a lot of CEOs shitting their pants.”

  “Well, if that happens, the Chinese get one in the guts, and it’s going to hurt, big time,” TRADER concluded.

  And how will they react to that? Ryan wondered. He punched his phone button. “Ellen, I need one.” His secretary appeared in a flash and handed him a cigarette. Ryan lit it and thanked her with a smile and a nod.

  “Have you talked this one over with State yet?”

  A shake of the head. “No, wanted to show it to you first.”

  “Hmm. Mark, what did you make of the negotiations?”