The Fourth Lectern
Basildon South & Thurrock had gone to a recount – there were fewer than eight hundred votes between Labour in first place and UKIP in third, with the Conservatives in second place, just a hundred behind Labour on first count.
“The Lib Dems have got their first MP of the night with Steve Webb in Thornbury and Yate – but with a decent swing to us. UKIP over ten thousand – a big chunk of those must have come from the Libs,” announced one of the activists. Coulson shook his head.
“Marcus Wood’s agent in Torbay has reported in,” called an activist on the South-West desk.
Coulson turned towards him, but without enthusiasm. “Please let it be some good news. He needs a three percent swing. How close is it?”
The activist looked uncomfortable. “It’s not declared yet – but it’s another swing away. Sorry, Andy.”
Hilton leaned forward. “Damn. We’re getting big swings to us where we don’t need them, and swings away in target seats. How?”
“I don’t know,” said Coulson, frustrated. “Oh look: Darlington – a safe seat for Labour. Don’t care about it, and... yep. Another good swing for us where it gets us twice the square root of sod all.”
“Well, we didn’t do so well in this one,” said Hilton. “Rutherglen and Hamilton West. We only held our deposit by a few bundles.”
Coulson glared at him. “Scotland. Doesn’t count, okay.”
“The Girl Wonder in Putney’s held on easily. Majority way up,” announced another activist
“Oh goody. Another big swing for us ... which nets us no extra benefit whatsoever. Still, she’s someone we could roll out to the Beeb for the early part of the morning.” Coulson nodded towards a staffer in the corner, who scurried off to set it up.
“Good little minion,” murmured Coulson.
“Another couple of Scottish safe Labour seats,” said Hilton.
“A risk of redundancy in that description,” muttered a nearby staffer.
Coulson leaned over to look at the result on the staffer’s laptop and recited the result to Hilton. “Can’t see exactly – I think it’s Motherwell and something, followed by East Kilbride, Scotlandshire & Let-me-go. Or something like that. Like I care about the utter no-hopers.”
The Northern Ireland desk announced that Hermon, standing as an Independent, had annihilated the UCUNF candidate in Down North. Coulson growled some words.
Easington, Sedgefield, Ynys Mon and Vale of Clwyd were easy Labour holds. Fourth in Easington and Sedgefield? thought Coulson. What the hell are we going to do about the North East? It’s getting worse than Scotland.
***
From The British General Election of 2010, by Kavanagh and Cowley
“By 1:30 am, a picture was beginning to form of large swings in irrelevant seats (aside from the astonishing victory of Naomi Long in Belfast East) and poor swings for the Conservatives – or even swings against – in key target seats. The first three such seats had declared, and in all three (Broxtowe, Birmingham Edgbaston and Kingswood) there had been a strong UKIP showing which more than exceeded the difference between the Conservative challenger and Labour victor. With 3 and a half hours elapsed since the close of polls, the seat count stood as follows (25 seats declared):
Labour:14
Conservative:2
Liberal Democrat: 2
Plaid Cymru: 1
DUP: 3
Sinn Fein: 1
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: 1
Independent (Sylvia Hermon) 1”
CHAPTER EIGHT
30 Millbank, 7 May, 1:30-2:00 am
The next half hour was a blur as the results accelerated in. Coulson had tried setting up a structure for declarations to come to a single whiteboard, but at some points they were forced to rely on Sky or BBC.
Hilton was gazing at the big screen with the BBC feed on it. “It might be a bit irrelevant right now, but it keeps crossing my mind,” he said. “A Boat Party? Why? Just… why?”
Announcements were being shouted across the room as the results came in
“Ming’s back in Fife North East, no surprises there.”
“David Laws back in Yeovil – a possible good link for any post-election negotiations. Amusingly, Labour came within a couple of bundles of losing their deposit.”
Coulson looked over to check the result.
Less amusingly, we only took second spot by a thousand votes or so from UKIP, he thought.
“We’ve got Battersea,” said Hilton, with a relieved smile.
“If we hadn’t, I’d have shot myself,” said Coulson. “Or, more probably, someone else. Like the candidate.”
Tooting and Telford were long shots, so Coulson wasn’t surprised when neither came in.
A swing away in Tooting? I think Mark Clarke had better reconsider his choice of career, he thought.
Gedling had been a little more hopeful, but also saw a swing away. UKIP’s nine thousand votes stood out as a decent excuse for Bruce Laughton. Amber Valley had been another fairly long shot – over 6% swing needed, and Nigel Mills got a 4.5% swing in his favour, which was creditable. Coulson looked at the UKIP score – nearly twenty percent.
Huh. Sodding Congdon.
Clwyd South had been talked about when the Conservatives had been at forty percent in the polls and ten points clear, so he supposed losing by over four thousand votes was pretty much par.
He glanced at the whiteboard where the assembled staffers were scrawling the results. No surprises or indeed anything interesting in Labour holds in Middlesborough, Lanark & Hamilton East, Durham North West, Dundee West, East Lothian, Islwyn, Kilmarnock & Loudon, Wrexham, Llanelli and Coatbridge, Chryston, & Bellshill. He noted the Labour holds in City of Durham and Glenrothes, however.
Oh. Goody. Two lost deposits for us to find to go with the lost deposit in Na h-Eil-whatsit. The Western Isles. Which unsurprisingly returned a Scots Nationalist.
Both Glenrothes and Falkirk saw the Conservatives in fifth spot.
At least we held our deposit in Falkirk. Bad night for the Scottish Tories.
The declaration from Gordon Brown’s constituency came in at quarter-to-two.
Well, we held our deposit in Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath, even if UKIP had pushed us into fifth in yet another Scottish seat.
Brown’s speech was noncommittal.
Unsurprising as no-one still knows where we’ll end up. It could be anywhere from a dead heat between us and Labour, or a narrow Labour majority. UKIP are killing us where we most needed it. And, to be fair, hurting Labour and the Lib Dems as well. On the plus side, The BNP have shed votes almost everywhere as they dropped to the core racists. It has to be just a matter of time before the words “UKIP GAIN” flashed across the screen.
“I notice that Brown’s short on details for his proposed Coalition with the Lib Dems,” said Coulson out loud.
“Yeah,” said Hilton, thoughtfully. “He barely mentioned it at all.”
“Probably keeping as much on the table as possible for his negotiations - assuming he gets close enough. The game’s not over yet.” Coulson’s words were braver than he felt inside.
“On the brighter side, we’ve built our majority in Newbury up to a hefty size even with UKIP present,” noted Hilton.
Coulson gratefully turned to look at the result. “And Labour lost their deposit. Hah!”
“Same in Guildford – expected to be squeaky bum time, but Anne Milton’s got a healthy majority now - and Labour lost their deposit there as well,” said Hilton.
A genuine smile briefly crossed Coulson’s face as he glanced back to the big whiteboard. Another flurry of results had come in.
Clacton, Rushcliffe, Bedfordshire South-West, Christchurch, Sevenoaks, The Wrekin, Staffs Moorlands and Filton & Bradley Stoke came up as Conservative holds as expected.
Ken Clarke will be disappointed he polled under 40%, though, and UKIP did pretty well in Staffordshir
e Moorlands – a quarter of the vote, but Karen Bradley’s made it through the challenge. Despite dipping to just over a third of the vote.
He spared a quick glance at the clock just as two am flashed up before flicking back to the whiteboard to tally the numbers.
We’re on thirteen declared, Labour on thirty-three, Lib Dems on four, Scots Nats on one, Plaid on one, DUP on four, Sinn Fein on two, SDLP on one, the Alliance Party on one (still can’t believe that) and Sylvia Hermon as an Indie. Two target seats going through recounts. So – fifty-three mainland seats down, only one changing hands so far – but most of the battleground seats are yet to come.
***
30 Millbank, 7 May, 2:00-2:30 am
Coulson rubbed his eyes. “Results now coming in like a Premiership footballer,” he commented to Hilton.
“Huh?” said Hilton
“Thick and fast,” explained Coulson with a smile. Hilton treated the weak joke with the indifference it deserved.
“Oh, a rare beast coming up,” said Hilton. “A target seat in Scotland.”
“After the earlier results, I’m not holding my breath,” said Coulson.
“Eh, we need a swing of just over two percent to take Angus away from the SNP,” protested Hilton. His phone beeped and he read the message. “Okay, next time we’ll need a swing of over six percent.” He looked crestfallen.
“Great. Can’t we give the Scots independence or something?” muttered Coulson under his breath.
After another couple of holds for the Conservatives at Canterbury and Staffordshire South, someone shouted out “Labour Gain!”
“What?” demanded Coulson. “Oh – it’s Blaenau Gwent. Hardly a surprise, really. That’s not a big deal”
“UKIP GAIN!” called someone.
Coulson spun on him. “Where?”
“It’s … um … Castle Point, Andy.”
“You berk, that’s a UKIP hold! It’s Spink. So he’s held on. Well, we’d have been doing bloody well to kick him out. How close did we get?”
“Just under two thousand votes behind.”
“What? That’s … that’s not too bad.”
Coulson was pleasantly surprised; he’d have guessed closer to five thousand. Still, it meant UKIP had an MP back in the Commons.
The Conservatives held Worcestershire Mid and Ribble Valley; Labour held Halton. The same staffer called out: “Um, kind of Labour gain...”
“What is it,” Coulson asked with a sigh.
“Glasgow East.”
“That’s the one they lost to the SNP in the by-election, right? Nah, we count ‘em from the General.”
He still looked miserable.
“What else is it?” Coulson asked. “Come on, it’s Glasgow – it’s not like we expect to get many votes. Let me guess – lost deposit?”
He nodded. “I think this is some kind of record, though.”
“Come on.”
“We got one hundred and two votes,” he said.
“Shit!”
Coulson glanced up. Ten past two. He stretched and looked back at the screens.
Labour held Newport West, Barnsley Central and Exeter. The Conservatives held Norfolk South.
Back up north of Hadrian’s Wall, there was yet another Labour hold.
Livingston, Dunfermline & Fife and Cumbernauld blah-de-blah. What is it with the Scottish Boundary Commission and absurdly long names? Do they want to make sure every sodding village got a mention?
Back south of the border and Labour held Bishop Auckland. Then there was a cheer and a shout of “Conservative gain!”
It was Aberconwy.
Well, we only needed a couple of percent swing, or something like that, so it was a high target – but at least we’ve netted the bugger. You can never tell with Wales. And I’ve seen better targets escape tonight. Coulson joined in the smiles.
His eyebrows went up when he saw the figures.
You don’t take many with a vote share still in the twenties!
“Oh God, more Scottish seats coming in,” he said to Hilton.
Airdrie & Shotts stayed with Labour, as did Inverclyde and Paisley & Renfrewshire. The SNP held onto Dundee East. At the other end of the country, the Conservatives held onto Devon East, but the UKIP candidate was second with 25%.
“Text from High Peak,” reported Carl.
“That’s somewhere around 40 on the target list, isn’t it?” he asked.
Carl nodded. “It’s gone to a bundle recount, requested by us. Surprised they gave it, really – apparently there were about a thousand votes in it”
Coulson dismissed it from consideration. “We’re not going to get that unless the counters needed Braille. How many did those UKIP bastards get?”
“Um – about ten thousand,” said Carl
“Bollocks!” snapped Coulson.
Hilton leaned over and whispered into Coulson’s ear. “You’re starting to tend a bit Malcolm Tucker, by the way.”
Coulson bit his lip.
Labour held Bolton North East, Glasgow Central, Midlothian, Stockton South and Stirling. Conservatives held onto Hertford & Stortford.
There was another cheer. It was for Vale of Glamorgan.
That’s a target somewhere in the low thirties isn’t it? he thought. He looked at the score. We’ve picked it up by over two thousand votes – hardly even close. Excellent. The UKIP gits were only on about ten percent. Maybe Wales will be our surprise package of the night – the Purple Peril are finding it harder to get traction there.
He suggested just that to Hilton, who grinned. “Wait ‘til you read this.”
Hilton passed over his iPhone. There was a text: Rcnt in Mont. – we’re abt a hundred ahead!!!
“Mont?” asked Coulson.
“Montgomeryshire. Lembit Öpik,” he replied with a broad smile.
“But...” Coulson hurriedly looked at the white board. Some overoptimistic soul had listed the top hundred target seats on it. He looked down at the text again.
“It’s not even a sodding target!” he said.
“I love the Welsh tonight,” said Hilton.
“Ollie held on!” called out another staffer. Letwin had increased his majority in Dorset West.
Still only about three thousand votes in it, but Ollie always looks in peril and always holds on.
Another Conservative gain – Tamworth.
Somewhere around 50 on the target list. So we’re losing ones in the thirties and picking them off with ease in the fifties – Chris Pincher’s now got a majority of five percent - and we’re even getting Öpik from way off the target list. Assuming we hold on after the recount, of course – a hundred votes isn’t much of a margin.
Labour held Hull West & Hessle, Paisley & Renfrewshire and Nuneaton - number eighty-five on the target list. Conservative hold at Folkestone. Plaid held onto Carmarthen East & Dinefwr.
Hardly a surprise – if you have to talk Welsh to pronounce the bloody constituency name, Plaid are always going to be in with a shout. Oh, and back in the Land of Sectarian Violence, the SDLP leader has just held Foyle.
After a hectic half-hour, two-thirty was showing on the clock. The number of seats declared had just topped one hundred. On the mainland, Labour had fifty-five seats, the Conservatives twenty-five, Liberal Democrats five, UKIP one, SNP three, and Plaid two. Coulson looked at the Northern Ireland board.
Right, the Shinners have two, the Bible Bashers four, Alliance one, SDLP two and one Indie.
Four seats were in recount – Kingswood, Basildon South & Thurrock East, High Peak and Montgomeryshire. Six mainland seats had already changed hands. Of the Conservative targets already declared, four had been picked up and five missed. Plaid had taken one seat from Labour, and Labour had gained Blaenau Gwent.
Still a lot of the night yet to come.
CHAPTER NINE
30 Millbank, 7 May, 2:30
-3:00 am
Coulson’s jaw tightened. He held up a hand and forestalled the young staffer from finishing his long recitation of seats. “No, I really don’t care about random safe seats declaring because I can’t give a flying toss so get out of my face unless you’ve got information on us hitting targets, missing targets, getting surprise wins or losing seats you young prat. Just put it on the damn whiteboard where you’re supposed to.”
The young staffer flushed and turned around.
“He took that well, I thought,” said Coulson to Hilton.
“Getting more Malcom Tucker…” warned Hilton, quietly.
Coulson shrugged.
The young staffer turned back. “Oh, we missed City of Chester by nine hundred votes; that’s a missed target,” he said. Seeing Coulson’s expression, he hurried off.
“Decent swing in Blackpool South, but we still missed it. Would have been a big ask, though,” said Hilton.
Coulson ignored him and looked up at the whiteboard again. They’d fallen a thousand votes short of the Lib Dems in Somerton & Frome. There was a small cheer - another target had come in.
We’ve picked up Leicestershire North West – that was an outside target. Excellent.
Steve spoke up again, looking worried. “I just got a text from Watford – apparently UKIP are ahead there.”
“Watford?” Coulson replied. “That well known hive of euroscepticism? The home of right-wing power and Thatcherism? Why the fuck are they winning in Watford?”
“Well, it’s apparently very, very close,” he said.
“Between who?”
“All four of us, I’m told,” he answered morosely.
“Any news from the other recounts?” Coulson asked.
Hilton showed Coulson a text message: 2 bndls in wrong pile
“That’s from Montgomeryshire,” he amplified.
“Which bundles and which pile?”
“That’s what I texted back to ask.”
"We’re surrounded by bloody amateurs, aren’t we?"
Just then there was a groan. “Lib Dem gain Eastbourne!” called out a staffer. “Bugger.”
Just then, Eastleigh declared. It had supposedly been high on the Conservative target list, but after Huhne had won the Liberal Democrat leadership, Coulson had written it off. Chris Huhne made his speech. Coulson turned up the volume and paid careful attention. First was the standard beginning to a winning candidate’s speech: thanking his electors and praising the defeated candidates. Then he got down to it.