The Fourth Lectern

  “…Jonathon Brammall – Liberal Democrat – four thousand, six hundred and fifteen votes.

  Rachel Harris – Labour – ten thousand, three hundred and four votes…”

  That wasn’t going to be enough for her, surely? She’d lost the seat – but to whom?

  “Chris Kelly – Conservative – twelve thousand, five hundred and fifty seven votes…”

  A strangled cheer from inside the room. That might just be enough…

  “Philip Rowe – United Kingdom Independence Party – ten thousand eight hundred and seventy nine…”

  The rest past the “Ten thousand” bit was drowned out by cheers.

  We’ve snatched the bloody seat out from between Congdon’s sodding jaws! exulted Coulson.

  Another target seat – Brigg and Goole – went into a recount. Pendle announced a second recount. Blackpool North and Cleveleys came out of recount and declared for Labour. It didn’t matter to Coulson; he was still buzzing over Dudley South.

  Two more target seats came up in the next ten minutes – Stroud (Labour hold) and Swindon South (into recount). Then, just as Cameron and Osborne finally came in, the announcement came from Montgomeryshire: the recount had finished, it had declared – the Conservatives had taken it by over three hundred votes.

  It’s probably good for me that the first sounds David’s hearing as he comes into CCHQ are cheers, reflected Coulson.

  Cameron raised his hands and said a few words to the assembled staffers. He then gestured to Coulson and Hilton to accompany him and Osborne into a back room.

 

  ***

 

  Cameron called out for coffee and said: “First off, good work, guys.”

  He saw Coulson’s expression of disbelief.

  “I mean it. Seriously, Andy, do you have any idea what the number crunchers were saying?”

  “Umm, no – I kind of avoided them because I was depressed enough already.”

  “Just over a week ago, they were talking about us getting some unpredictable number. Anything between one hundred and two hundred seats. Getting the same number of seats out that we went in with was going to be – in their words – ‘improbably difficult’.”

  Coulson blinked in surprise. “One hundred? Christ on a stick, I knew it was bad, but that bad?”

  Osborne gave a half smile. “Oh yes. And even after all the hard work that you and Steve put in, the wonks crunched the numbers from the eve-of-election polls and told me I should expect somewhere between one-ninety-four seats and two-twenty-seven seats. Most probable would be a standstill like 2001, where we come out with almost exactly what we went in with. Labour were expected to get between two-ninety-three and three-thirty seats, the Lib Dems in the high sixties, and UKIP anywhere between six and twenty five, dependant on their assumptions.”

  Cameron chipped in again. “The scoreboard as we came in this room read one hundred and sixty two to Labour, one-forty-seven to us, twenty eight to the Lib Dems and two to UKIP. That’s out of more than half of the mainland seats declared. Seriously – I’m actually quite chuffed so far.”

  Osborne interjected, “Meh, I wouldn’t call it ‘chuffed’. More ‘a bit relieved’. We’ve still got the Party to deal with.”

  Hilton agreed. “Very true. What do we consider ‘panic level’?”

  There was an audible groan from next door, followed some seconds later by a cheer.

  Cameron said, “I’ve been making the rounds and lowering expectations. I was on the phone to William on the way down, before his count, and he’s fully on side – which should help with some of the right. Davis is a busted flush – he’s got no constituency in the Party any more – it’s Liam I’m worried about.”

  “What’s the upshot?” asked Hilton.

  Cameron frowned. “If we lost seats overall, I’d be toast. I’ve been using a hundred and ninety eight - like we had before the boundary changes - as a baseline to exaggerate any gains, but most of them can see through that.”

  Osborne spoke up. “Though you’d be surprised how many are dim enough to swallow that line whole.”

  Cameron continued, “…so I reckon under two hundred and twenty and I’ve got a real fight to placate the Right. Over two-thirty and there will be some rocky moments, but I’ll be allowed a second shot. I think. After all, it was supposed to be a two-election strategy in the first place. To be honest, I didn’t really expect a majority even when we were so far ahead. It’s between two-twenty and two-thirty that we’ll have to work hard. Over two hundred and forty and I’m in good shape.”

  Coulson had been silent for a while, but mused out loud. “It’s looking promising, then. I’d be shocked now at under two-twenty. I think you really should expect over two-thirty at least. So – it may be a little rocky, but we can look to the future. What’re your thoughts for the post-election scenario.”

  Osborne cleared his throat. “Actually, we could be looking at an ideal scenario – from a purely Party point of view.”

  Cameron added, “Country-wise, not so good.”

  Osborne continued, “Indeed. But if it breaks that Brown stays in power with a record low share of the vote – and absolute vote number – and is propped up by the Lib Dems, then we could be looking at a perfect storm in the next election.”

  Coulson could see what they were getting at. “Ah! Because they’ll have to institute the cuts.”

  Osborne nodded. “Exactly. I reckon Mandy didn’t expect any chance of staying in power – he was running an insurgency campaign and sowing salt. As long as Brown is damaged but still in Number 10…”

  Cameron interjected, “…and I can’t see how he could not be damaged…”

  “…then Darling stays at the Treasury and actions his ‘cuts harsher than Thatcher’. If Huhne props him up, then the Yellows take some of the poison onto themselves. The electorate expect us to cut. If Labour cut harshly – and the markets will force that on them – the electorate will feel betrayed. Labour will take a hell of a lot of pain.” Osborne said with a smile.

  Hilton murmured, “And then after one – maybe two – years, we try to get their Coalition to collapse and reap the rewards with the pain already being felt. We’ll then have five years to get to the sunny uplands against a toxic Opposition.”

  Osborne nodded.

  Coulson had one more question: “But what about UKIP?”

  Osborne answered. “Well, the good news is that they aren’t getting many seats. To be brutally honest, if Farage wins in Buckingham, we’re well and truly in the golden scenario.”

  Coulson interrupted, piously: “But we’ll miss Bercow, of course.”

  Osborne continued with a grin: “Oh, of course. It would be tragic, but overall beneficial for all of us in the long run. A peerage, certainly. But if we have Congdon, Spink and Farage all in the Commons, we’ll have a three-way split in UKIP in no time at all. And as they diminish, we’re best placed to make ground from them.”

  Cameron said: “So, as long as we get through the next month or so with no damage from the Right, we could well be in a good position. So our overall strategy is to let Brown do the talking and play his cards.”

  Coulson muttered, “‘Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake’.”

  “Indeed. Let’s go and see the scores,” said Cameron.

  It was now coming up to five am. Coulson flicked a now-practised eye down the white boards. While they’d been conferring, no fewer than five more targets had gone into recounts – Walsall South, York Outer, Croydon Central, Dorset Mid and Poole North, and Northampton North – which was reportedly going to come out of the election as a near four-way marginal, whoever ended up being declared the victor.

  They’d missed target seats at Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Pudsey, Chippenham, Worcester and Dewsbury. Labour had managed to take Enfield South from them.

  That must have been the groan we’d heard. The boundary changes had been mur
derous for us, but we should still have held on, really.

  They’d been more successful in the target seats of Rossendale & Darwen, Swindon North – and Redditch. Labour had taken Chesterfield from the Liberal Democrats. He scanned the list again - no, there weren’t any more UKIP seats. At least, not yet.

  “I don’t believe it! Fungus held on in Norwich South for Labour with under twenty-seven percent! And we’re fifth behind UKIP and the Greens!” exclaimed a nearby staffer.

  Coulson shrugged. “No need to worry – Clarke’s more damaging to Labour in the House than outside it.”

  Just before five am rolled around, the Conservatives picked up Stourbridge, which had been high on the target list. Cameron half-smiled as he looked at the running total on the whiteboard:

  Labour 191

  Conservatives 178

  Lib Dems 34

  UKIP 2

  SNP 6

  Plaid Cymru 3

  IKHH 1

  DUP 8

  Sinn Fein 4

  SDLP 3

  Alliance 1

  Independent 1 (Hermon)

  Seats declared: 428

  Seats in recount: 17.

  CHAPTER ELEVEN

  30 Millbank, 0500 - 0615

  “Right, I’m off to grab a quick nap,” said Cameron. "I might need to be on the ball in the morning.”

  Coulson nodded, still feeling relieved. Osborne and Hilton had adjourned back to the conference room to strategize, and Coulson felt at a loss for what to do.

  The routine of who’s got to speak to the press is well under way: The Girl Wonder was first up – she’s long finished, Cuddly Ken was next and – oh, I forget who was after him, but it was all planned out in advance. Good job too. Coulson fought off a yawn. He was feeling decidely fuzzy, despite the caffeine.

  It must have been the discussion with David – I’d obviously been tenser than I’d thought over the future, and now it does look somewhat rosier.

  He sat down at his desk.

  I’ll just close my eyes for a second or two to catch my breath…

  “Conservative Gain! Another one!” Coulson jolted upright, blinking. He focussed blearily on the time: 5:44.

  “We’ve got another one?” he asked.

  The nearby staffer – Carl - smiled wearily and put a steaming cup of coffee in front of him. Silently, Coulson blessed him.

  “More than one, Andy. Since you’ve been – resting your eyes – we’ve picked up Great Yarmouth, Burton, Colne Valley, Winchester, Dorset South, Chatham & Aylesford, and just now, you heard us getting Reading West. Oh, and Harrogate & Knaresborough came out of recount with us taking it by only a hundred-and-some votes. Stevenage has gone to a recount, as has Cardiff North, Hove, Camborne & Redruth, Sheffield Central (although that’s not us involved) and Bristol North West – that last one is apparently a four-way marginal right now. Oh, and Newton Abbot finished their recount and went straight into another one. And Dudley North has apparently had a really screwed up count and they’ve restarted about four times.”

  “Christ. How long was I asleep for? Four years?” asked Coulson with a smile.

  “Yeah, well, not all good news. We didn’t take Bury North, Westminster North, Bolton West, Wolverhampton South, Elmet & Rothwell or Plymouth Sutton & Devonport. Or Waveney. All of those are on the target list.”

  “Meh, a few of those were pretty damn low down on the list,” said Coulson.

  “Oh, and Stafford came out of recount with Labour holding on by just under two hundred votes. And there was a partial recount at Cleethorpes, but they hung on there as well.”

  While they were talking, Gloucester and Ipswich - both target seats - had gone final and the Conservatives had fallen short in both of them.

  Labour held on to Burnley after a recount against the Liberal Democrats before the Conservatives gained Gillingham and Rainham.

  “News from Richmond Park,” said Carl.

  “Richmond Park? Oh, that’s another bloody A-lister, isn’t it? Zac Goldsmith?” said Coulson. "Go on - hit me with it.”

  “He won,” said Carl.

  “Nice,” commented Coulson.

  “Oh, and it looks like the losing Lib Dem, Kramer, is seriously pissed off,” said Carl with a smirk. He didn’t give any further details. Coulson shrugged. There would be enough drama tonight without him seeking out more.

  Jonathon trotted up, looking as fresh as over. “Good news from Somerset North East: Jacob Ress Mogg just held on. The recount gave him a scarily thin margin over the Lib Dem, but a win is a win.”

  Coulson broke into a genuine smile. “Remind me to give his Nanny a bonus,” he said.

  Jonathon’s phone bleeped and he looked down at it. “Ah! Rochdale – home of Bigot-gate - is just declaring after its recount.”

  He looked crestfallen as he thumbed down the message. “Bugger – Labour just managed to hold on. That would have been so damn hilarious.”

  “Never mind,” said Coulson.

  He turned. Everyone was looking at the main screen.

  “The result from Brighton Pavilion’s in,” said Carl, helpfully. “It’s official. Lucas took it for the Greens.”

  “Christ,” said a staffer near the front. “They’ll need five lecterns next time!”

  There was a moment of absolute silence and then they all cracked up. The combination of exhaustion and excitement had left all of them on edge. Coulson hadn’t realised just how tense he’d been and the rest of the staff had obviously been the same way.

  “How about an SNP alliance with the English Democrats,” called someone. “That’d get us to six.”

  “Could Griffin win in Barking?” asked another.

  “Yeah - seven!” Carl was grinning.

  “That doctor bloke in Wyre Forest - can’t he get some sort of nationwide movement as well?”

  “Eight!”

  “I think Mebyon Kernow and Plaid would fall too short though,” suggested someone near the back of the room.

  “Now you’re just being silly...”

  ***

  30 Millbank, 0615 - 0730

  The sun had been up for a short while and some staffers had been dispatched on urgent business: getting breakfast. Coulson had ordered a large bacon-and-eggs bap and was willing to commit grievous bodily harm to anyone who prevented him from getting it.

  He blinked and stretched. He was starting to wake up properly now. He’d had long experience of the way fatigue ebbed and flowed when you worked through a night without pause. The way he had to fight the fatigue for a few hours between about two o’clock and five or six o’clock before his body and brain seemed to decide he was actually awake again was a familiar routine. Which, for him, was always accompanied by an internal demand for ‘Breakfast!’ at the point where his brain started to come back online properly.

  Pendle’s recount had finished without good news for the Conservatives – Labour held it by just over a hundred votes. The next fifteen seats were holds in non-target seats. Then at the stroke of 6:30, another target seat came up: Warrington South. He suppressed a twinge of disappointment – it hadn’t even been close.

  There was a series of holds – seven more for Labour (mainly in London), one more for the Conservatives and two more senior Lib Dems (Clegg and Hughes) - before another good result for the Conservatives, picking up Portsmouth North by a clear margin of over six thousand votes.

  An easy Labour hold by Yvette Cooper in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford was followed by success for the Conservatives in Meon Valley, turning the new constituency into a safe seat. Wells, a highly visible expenses scandal-hit-seat, was lost to the Liberal Democrats, UKIPs tally dwarfing the margin of the Conservative defeat. Three more targets came up in the half hour between 6:45 and 7:15: Halifax, Harrow East and Calder Valley. All of them were held by Labour. Sheffield Central was nearly taken from Labour by the Liberal Democrats, but just stayed red. Bradford East went
to a recount between Labour (the defenders) and the Lib Dems.

  As the flurry of seat declarations started to tail off, Coulson ordered his sources to be on the lookout for any movement from Labour or the Lib Dems on the subject of the post-election settlement. Unfortunately, the other campaigns seemed to be keeping their cards close to their chests; the only rumour that had been reported was that Mandelson himself was going to go on the Breakfast segment of the BBC. Coulson was disappointed to find out the rumour was ill-founded, with no sightings observed.

  Pity – it would have been great fun to see him have to keep his composure in the face of some of the inevitable inane questions, thought Coulson, idly.

  With nothing directly useful to do, Coulson and a few staffers amused themselves by sending out a YouTube clip of Gordon Brown being interviewed during the 1992 Election Night. At the time, it had looked as though Major was in the process of losing his majority and would end up with a Hung Parliament. In the interview they’d dug up, Brown had stated that a Government which lost its majority had lost its mandate to rule and should definitely make way for the Opposition. For half an hour, they aimed to get it onto as many friendly blogs and sites as they could to try to get it to go viral, but with limited success.

  There was a genuine motive behind the move: Although most of the staffers helping Coulson believed the intent was to increase the pressure on Brown to push him to resign, the real intent was precisely the reverse. Hilton and Coulson had assessed that the more such pressure was applied, the more Brown would resist. Despite the minimal chance of it having any real effect, they persisted for a while simply because they were having fun doing so.

  As 7:30 rolled around, the last crumbs of breakfast were brushed away.

  All right, second breakfast. When it comes to Election Night mornings, there’s a bit of hobbit in all of us.

  Another trio of targets came up.

  Come on, let us get some positives from the last hour or so. Rugby. Come on now. Yes! Conservative Gain! By over two thousand votes!

  Milton Keynes South… another one! Yes! Only six hundred votes in it, but a win is a win. That puts us on two hundred and twenty four seats.

  Eltham… nope. No hat-trick for us. Labour held more than four thousand votes. Two hundred and seventy nine for them, so far. Bloody London – the capital’s absolutely dire for us tonight.