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25. Parisa Hafezi, “Iran’s Ahmadinejad Calls on Palestinians to Fight On,” Reuters, September 3, 2010, www.reuters
.com/article/2010/09/03/us-iran-israel-palestinians-
idUSTRE6821EX20100903 (accessed November 10, 2011).
26. Sara Ghasemilee, “Egypt to Expel Iran Diplomat Spy Suspect, Security Officials Say,” Al Arabiya, May 29, 2011, www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/29/150974.html (accessed November 10, 2011). Khaled Nuaimat, “Jordan Arrests 20 over Hamas’ Plots, Seizes Iranian-Made Rockets,” Jordan Times, May 11, 2006, www.jordanembassyus.org
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27. Nada Bakri, “Iran Calls on Syria to Recognize Citizens’ Demands,” New York Times, August 27, 2011; and Fareed Zakaria, “Ahmadinejad on Gadhafi, Syria, Alleged Plot, Nuclear Weapons and America’s Role,” CNN, October 22, 2011, https://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/22
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28. Habib Toumi, “Kuwait Busts Alleged Iran and Hezbollah Spy Rings,” Gulf News, May 29, 2011, https://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/kuwait/kuwait-busts-alleged-iran-and-hezbollah-spy-rings-1.814033 (accessed November 10, 2011). On Bahrain, see Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), 281. See also “Country Studies: Saudia Arabia—Threats to Internal Security,” US Library of Congress, https://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/satoc
.html (accessed November 15, 2011); US Department of the Treasury, “Fact Sheet: U.S. Treasury Department Targets Iran’s Support for Terrorism, Treasury Announces New Sanctions against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Leadership,” news release, August 3, 2010, www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages
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Project, July 13, 2011, www.irantracker.org/analysis/irans-strategic-offensive-iraq (accessed November 15, 2011).
29. Danielle Pletka, Frederick W. Kagan, and Kimberly Kagan, Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq, and Afghanistan (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, February 19, 2008), www.aei.org/papers/foreign-and-defense-policy
/regional/asia/iranian-influence-in-the-levant-iraq-and-afghanistan.
30. ”Bin Laden’s Fatwa,” PBS News Hour, August 1996, www.pbs.org/newshour/terrorism/international/fatwa_
1996.html (accessed November 10, 2011).
31. John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, NY, and London: Cornell University Press, September 1985), 14.
32. Paul Huth, Christopher Gelpi, D. Scott Bennett, “The Escalation of Great Power Militarized Disputes,” American Political Science Review 87, no. 3 (September 1993): 610.
33. Samuel P. Huntington, “Conventional Deterrence and Conventional Retaliation in Europe,” International Security 8, no. 3 (Winter 1983–84): 32–56.
34. Dean Acheson, Power and Diplomacy (New York: Athenaeum, 1982), 85.
35. John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, NY, and London: Cornell University Press, September 1985), 14.
36. Quoted in David Sanger, “Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran,” New York Times, March 13, 2010.
37. See, for example, Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, “Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable,” World Politics 42, no. 3 (1990): 336–69; the essay is itself a review of the relevant literature, but the specific formulations in this paper are the authors’ own.
38. Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008).
39. Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995), 1.
40. US Energy Information Administration, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz,” February 2011, www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=WOTC (accessed October 31, 2011).
41. Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, eds., Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy to Iran (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus 72, July 2007), 1, www.washingtoninstitute
.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus72FinalWeb.pdf (accessed November 2, 2011); Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoush Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran’s Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era,” Rand Corporation, 2001, 82.
42. See Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival (New York: W.W. Norton, 2006).
43. Marc Lynch, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy toward Iran in a Changing Middle East,” Center for a New American Security, June 2011, 14.
44. “Iran Has Become a Great Power in the Middle East: General.” Tehran Times, July 25, 2010, https://old
.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=223599 (accessed October 31, 2011); and “Ahmadinejad Stresses Iran, China’s Role in Establishing New World Order,” Fars News Agency, March 1, 2011, https://english.farsnews.
com/newstext.php?nn=8912100952 (accessed October 31, 2011).
45. See, for example, Zbigniew Brzezinksi, The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership? (New York: Basic Books, 2004).
46. For sample discussions, see Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Global Ambition,” AEI Middle Eastern Outlook, no. 3 (March 2008), www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/irans-global-ambition; and Iran in the Western Hemisphere: Oral Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 111th Cong., 1st sess., October 27, 2009 (statement of Douglas Farah), https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/111/53136
.pdf (accessed November 2, 2011).
47. “Iran, Venezuela Promise ‘New World Order,’” CBS News Online, October 21, 2010, www.cbsnews.com
/stories/2010/10/21/world/main6977441.shtml (accessed October 31, 2011).
48. Ali Khamenei, “Remarks on Islamic Awakening,” (speech, First International Islamic Awakening Conference, Tehran, Iran, September 18, 2011).
49. Roger F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas, “The Mounting Hezbollah Threat in Latin America,” AEI Latin American Outlook, no. 3 (October 2011), www.aei.org/article
/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/latin-america/the-mounting-hezbollah-threat-in-latin-america.
50. Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, 112th Cong., 1st sess., July 26, 2011 (statement of General
Martin E. Dempsey), https://armed-services.senate.gov
/Transcripts/2011/07%20July/11-64%20-%207-26-11.pdf (accessed November 2, 2011)
51. Ibid.; and “Nominee to Head US Military Warns Iran,” AFP, July 26, 2011, www.breitbart.com/article.php
?id=CNG.76e922114da15368a3240ee909bcafce.d1&show_article=1 (accessed October 31, 2011).
52. Jay Solomon, “Iran Rejects Proposed U.S. Military Hot Line,” Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2011; and Rick Gladstone, “Iran Mass-Produces New Missile and Rejects ‘Hot Line’ Idea With America,” New York Times, September 28, 2011.
53. Kurt M. Campbell and Michele A. Flournoy, “The Inheritance and the Way Forward,” Center for a New American Security, June 2007, 9.
54. Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoush Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran’s Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era,” Rand Corporation, 2001, 7–8.
55. Frederic Wehrey et al., “Dangerous but Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East,” Rand Corporation, 2009, 157.
56. Ibid., 83.
57. Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards—A Rogue Outfit,” Middle East Quarterly 15, no. 4 (Fall 2008): 37–48.
58. Ali Alfoneh, “Ahmadinejad versus Khamenei: IRGC Wins, Civilians Lose,” AEI Middle Eastern Outlook, no. 3 (May 201
1), www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy
/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/ahmadinejad-
versus-khamenei-irgc-wins-civilians-lose.
59. David Schenker, “Hizballah Will Defend Iran—Not Palestinians,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch no. 1444, December 30, 2008, www
.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2977 (accessed November 1, 2011).
60. Patrick Bishop, “TV Star Nasrallah Impresses People on All Sides in Hopeful Lebanon,” Telegraph, August 29, 2006, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1527535/TV-star-
Nasrallah-impresses-people-on-all-sides-in-hopeful-Lebanon.html (accessed November 1, 2011).
61. Frederic Wehrey et al., “Dangerous but Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East,” Rand Corporation, 2009, 82–83.
62. Eyal Zisser, “Iranian Involvement in Lebanon,” Military and Strategic Affairs 3, no. 1 (May 2011), www.inss.org.il
/upload/(FILE)1308129458.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
63. Frederic Wehrey et al., “Dangerous but Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East,” Rand Corporation, 2009, 101.
64. See, for instance, US Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Targets Hizballah Financial Network,” news release, December 9, 2010, www.treasury.gov/press-
center/press-releases/Pages/tg997.aspx (accessed November 14, 2011); and US Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Targets Hizballah Network in Africa,” news release, May 27, 2009, www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg149.aspx (accessed November 14, 2011).
65. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Testimony before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, February 24, 2010, www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/02/137227.htm (accessed November 14, 2011).
66. John R. Bolton, Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 23, 2011, www.aei.org/article
/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran-and-syria-next-steps.
67. Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, eds., Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy to Iran (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus 72, July 2007), 1.
68. Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoush Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran’s Security Policy in the Post-
Revolutionary Era,” Rand Corporation, 2001, 2.
69. See Mark Bowden, Guests of the Ayatollah: The Iran Hostage Crisis; The First Battle in America’s War with Militant Islam (New York: Grove Press, 2006). Bowden’s narrative makes clear how chaotic, complex, and contingent the balance of Iranian politics was during the period of clerical consolidation of power. Even Ayatollah Khomeini’s control of the masses was extremely tenuous.
70. Danielle Pletka conversation with Ray Takeyh, September 27, 2011.
71. Peter Rodman, “The Hostage Crisis: How Not to Negotiate,” The Washington Quarterly 4, no. 3 (1981), 9–24.
72. Paul-Marie de La Gorce, “Iran: Encircled and Under Pressure,” Le Monde Diplomatique, July 2003, https://mondediplo.com/2003/07/02gorce (accessed November 1, 2011).
73. “Themes: Iranian Influence,” Institute for the Study of War, October 26, 2007, www.understandingwar.org/theme
/iranian-influence (accessed November 1, 2011).
74. “Iran ‘Behind Green Zone Attack,’” BBC, March 24, 2008, https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7311565.stm (accessed November 1, 2011).
75. Martin Chulov, “Moqtada al-Sadr Returns to Iraq after Exile,” Guardian, January 5, 2011, www.guardian.co
.uk/world/2011/jan/05/moqtada-al-sadr-returns-iraq (accessed November 1, 2011).
76. “Entekhab-e Safir-e Jadid-e Iran Dar Eragh Va Janjal-e Resaneh-ha-ye Arabi” [Appointment of new Iranian ambassador to Iraq and mayhem of the Arab media], Diplomasi-ye Irani (Tehran), January 24, 2010, available in Persian at www.irdiplomacy.ir/index.php?Lang=fa&Page
=24&TypeId=1&ArticleId=6790&Action=ArticleBodyView (accessed July 13, 2010); and Michael Rubin, “Understanding Iranian Strategy in Afghanistan,” in Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead, ed. Cheryl Benard et al. (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2008).
77. Kimberly Dozier, “NATO Forces Nab Iran Arms for Taliban,” Washington Times, March 9, 2011; and “Hague Fury as ‘Iranian Arms’ Bound for Taliban Seized,” BBC News, March 9, 2011, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12694266 (accessed November 1, 2011).
78. US Department of the Treasury, “Fact Sheet: U.S. Treasury Department Tarets Iran’s Support for Terrorism, Treasury Announces New Sanctions against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Leadership,” news release, August 3, 2010, www.treasury.gov/press-center
/press-releases/Pages/tg810.aspx (accessed November 1, 2011).
79. Ernesto Londoño, “Iran’s Hosting of Taliban Reflects Desire for Greater Role,” Washington Post, September 29, 2011.
80. Ahmad K. Majidyar and Ali Alfoneh, “Iranian Influence in Afghanistan: Imam Khomeini Relief Committee,” AEI Middle Eastern Outlook, no. 4 (July 2010), www.aei.org
/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional
/middle-east-and-north-africa/iranian-influence-in-afghanistan-outlook.
81. “Ba Hozour Dar Hamayesh-e Bozorg-e Mardomi-ye Aghsa Zemzemeh-ye Qur’an” [Presence at the large popular conference of Whispering the Quran], Rah-e Nejat (Kabul), September 4, 2009, available in Dari at www.rahenejatdaily.com/1265/88062612.html (accessed July 12, 2010).
82. “Iran IKRC Sending Aid to Afghanistan,” PressTV, September 15, 2007, available at https://edition.presstv.ir
/detail/23216.html (accessed November 9, 2011).
83. Ahmad K. Majidyar and Ali Alfoneh, “Iranian Influence in Afghanistan: Refugees as Political Instruments,” AEI Middle Eastern Outlook, no. 5 (November 2010), www.aei
.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/india-
pakistan-afghanistan/iranian-influence-in-afghanistan-
outlook-1.
84. Anand Gopal, “US-Iran Thaw Could Bolster Afghanistan Rebuilding Efforts,” Christian Science Monitor, April 3, 2009.
85. The process of enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels—above 90 percent purity—is not linear. Enriching uranium up to 20 percent represents 80 to 90 percent of the effort involved in producing weapons-grade uranium.
86. Gregory S. Jones, “An In-Depth Examination of Iran’s Centrifuge Enrichment Program and Its Efforts to Acquire Nuclear Weapons,” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, August 9, 2011, https://npolicy.org/article.php?aid=
1092&rid=4 (accessed November 1, 2011).
87. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General,” February 25, 2011, https://iaea.org/Publications/Documents/
Board/2011/gov2011-7.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
88. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General,” November 8, 2011, https://isis-online.org
/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Iran_8Nov2011
.pdf (accessed November 8, 2011).
89. Lally Weymouth, “IAEA’s Amano: Iran Still Steadily Producing Uranium,” Washington Post, February 14, 2011. In response to a question about the extent of damage that a malware virus inflicted on Iran’s centrifuges, Amano said, “Iran is somehow producing uranium enriched to 3.5 percent and 20 percent. They are producing it steadily, constantly.”
90. Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, “Iran’s Nuclear Timetable,” Iran Watch, September 12, 2011, www.iranwatch.org/ourpubs/articles/iranucleartimetable
.html (accessed November 1, 2011).
91. North Korea conducted the first of its two nuclear weapons tests in 2006 and reporti
ng indicates it may now have produced enough material for 8–12 nuclear warheads.
92. Technical experts at the Institute for Science and International Security have estimated that less than ten tons of UF6 is required to produce enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon.
93. Matthew Hill, “Zimbabwe, Iran Ink Deal on Uranium Mining—Report,” Mining Weekly, March 4, 2011, www.miningweekly.com/article/zim-to-supply-iran-with-uranium—-report-2011-03-04 (accessed November 1, 2011). In March 2011, Zimbabwe’s foreign minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi told a Zimbabwean newspaper that “Zimbabwe has rich uranium reserves, but is faced with a shortage of funds and does not possess the technical knowledge and equipment needed for extracting rich uranium ores. . . . If [Zimbabwe and Iran] can work together on uranium mining, it will improve the economic situation of both countries.”
94. US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, vi, www.defense.gov/npr/docs
/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20report.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
95. For a detailed discussion, see Thomas Donnelly and David Trachtenberg, “Toward a New ‘New Look’: U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Forces for the Third Atomic Age” (Center for Defense Studies Working Paper, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, March 2010), www.defensestudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08
/Toward-a-New-New-Look-final.pdf.
96. John S. Foster Jr. and Keith B. Payne, “What Are Nuclear Weapons For?” Forum on Physics and Society of the American Physical Society 36, no. 4 (October 2007).
97. Elaine M. Grossman, “Senior U.S. General Sees High Nuclear Threshold,” Global Security Newswire, October 22, 2007, https://gsn.nti.org/gsn/GSN_20071022_
58872303.php (accessed November 1, 2011).
98. See Thomas Donnelly and David Trachtenberg, “Toward a New ‘New Look’: U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Forces for the Third Atomic Age” (Center for Defense Studies Working Paper, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, March 2010), 26–36, www.defensestudies
.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Toward-a-New-New-Look-final.pdf.
99. Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. al-Rodhan, The Gulf Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric War (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2006), 5.
100. Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoush Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran’s Security Policy in the Post-
Revolutionary Era,” Rand Corporation, 2001, 28.
101. Ali Alfoneh, “Iran Primer: The Basij Resistance Force,” PBS.org, October 21, 2010, www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran-primer-the-basij-resistance-force.
102. Office of Naval Intelligence, “Iran’s Naval Forces: From Guerilla Warfare to a Modern Naval Strategy,” Fall 2009, www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/iran-navy.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
103. Alistair Johnson, “Iran Navy Produces Armed Copy of Bladerunner 51 Speedboat,” Telegraph, August 11, 2010; and Jo Becker, “Web of Shell Companies Veils Trade by Iran’s Ships,” New York Times, June 7, 2010.
104. See Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, Volume II: The Iran-Iraq War (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990), 353–95.
105. Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoush Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran’s Security Policy in the Post-
Revolutionary Era,” Rand Corporation, 2001, 94–95.
106. The UN Panel of Experts report has been not been officially released by the UN because Russian diplomats have blocked its publication. “Envoys: Russia Blocks UN Report on Iran Arms Sales,” Reuters, May 12, 2011. However, a copy of the report is available; see “Panel of Experts Established Pursuant to Resolution 1929 (2010): Final Report,” at www.innercitypress.com/1929r051711.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
107. Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. al-Rodhan, The Gulf Military forces in an Era of Asymmetric War (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2006), 72–73.
108. “Iran Puts Sat into Orbit for 1st Time,” Press TV, February 3, 2009, https://edition.presstv.ir/detail/84486.html (accessed November 1, 2011).
109. Defense Intelligence Agency, Unclassified Report on Military Power of Iran (Washington, DC, April 2010).
110. Ibid.
111. For background on Iran’s establishment of IED and EFP networks see Kimberly Kagan, Iran’s Proxy War against the United States and the Iraqi Government (Washington, DC: Institute for the Study of War and the Weekly
Standard, August 29, 2007), www.understandingwar
.org/files/reports/IraqReport06.pdf (accessed November 14, 2011).
112. George W. Bush, “Press Conference by the President,” news release, February 14, 2007, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/02/20070214-2.html (accessed November 1, 2011).
113. David H. Petraeus, remarks, “CENTCOM in 2010: Views from General David H. Petraeus,” The Institute for the Study of War, January 22, 2010, www.understandingwar
.org/press-media/webcast/centcom-2010-views-general-david-h-petraeus-video (accessed November 1, 2011).
114. For a good summary, see David Wood, “China, Iran Creating ‘No-Go’ Zones to Thwart U.S. Military Power,” Politics Daily, March 1, 2010, www.politicsdaily.com/2010
/03/01/china-iran-creating-no-go-zones-to-thwart-u-s-
military-power (accessed November 1, 2011).
115. Andrew F. Krepinevich, “Why AirSea Battle?” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, February 19, 2010, www.csbaonline.org/publications/2010/02/why-airsea-battle (accessed November 1, 2011).
116. Elaine M. Grossman, “Senior U.S. General Sees High Nuclear Threshold,” Global Security Newswire, October 22, 2007, https://gsn.nti.org/gsn/GSN_20071022_
58872303.php (accessed November 1, 2011).
117. Elizabeth Bumiller, “Nominee to Lead Joint Chiefs Warns against Deep Cuts,” New York Times, July 27, 2011.
118. Defending Defense: Warning: Hollow Force Ahead! The Effect of Ever More Defense Budget Cuts on U.S. Armed Forces (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation, and Foreign Policy Institute, July 2011), www
.aei.org/paper/foreign-and-defense-policy/defense
/warning-hollow-force-ahead.
119. Tony Capaccio and Violet Gienger, “Lockheed F-35 May Face Budget Cuts in Budget Review, Gates Says,” Bloomberg, June 29, 2011.
120. Caroline F. Ziemke, Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence: Deterring Iraq and Iran (Arlington, VA: Institute for Defense Analysis and Defense Threat Reduction Agency, 2001), 62–63.
121. Ibid., 63.
122. Mehdi Khalaji, “Apocalyptic Visions and Iran’s Security Policy,” in Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, eds., Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy to Iran (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus 72, July 2007), 30–31; and Mehdi Khalaji, “Apocalyptic Politics: On the Rationality of Iranian Politics” (Policy Focus no. 79, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, DC, January 2008).
123. Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), 422–23.
124. Scott Wilson, “Obama Announces Plan to Bring Home 33,000 ‘Surge’ Troops from Afghanistan,” Washington Post, June 22, 2011.
125. William J. Perry and Stephen P. Hadley, chairs, The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National Security Needs in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace, 2010), www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
126. Ibid., 24 and 26.
127. Ibid., 27.
128. Dean Acheson, Power and Diplomacy (New York: Athenaeum, 1982), 85.
129. Mike Shuster, “Iran Prompts Debate over Mideast Defense Umbrella,” National Public Radio, August 26, 2009, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=
112222260 (accessed November 1, 2011).
1
30. See Thomas Donnelly and David Trachtenberg, “Toward a New ‘New Look’: U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Forces for the Third Atomic Age” (Center for Defense Studies Working Paper, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, March 2010), www.defensestudies.org/wp-content
/uploads/2011/08/Toward-a-New-New-Look-final.pdf.
131. A thorough framework is provided by Anthony H. Cordesman, Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iran: A Speculative Analysis (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2007), https://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070305_
iran_israelius.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011). See also Lieutenant Colonel Leif Eckholm, “Invading Iran: Lessons from Iraq” (Policy Review No. 168, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, August 1, 2011), www.hoover.org/publications/
policy-review/article/87231 (accessed November 1, 2011); Kenneth Freeman, “Should We Attack Iran to Halt Its Perceived Nuclear Weapons Program?” Royal United Services Institute, November 17, 2010, www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary
/ref:C4CE3E15FF40BD (accessed November 1, 2011); and James Fallows, “Will Iran Be Next?” The Atlantic, December 2004, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599 (accessed November 1, 2011).
132. Richard Spencer, “Israel’s Former Spy Chief Says Iran Strike Would Be ‘Stupid,’” Telegraph, May 8, 2011, www
.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8501120/Israels-former-spy-chief-says-Iran-strike-would-be-
stupid.html (accessed November 1, 2011).
133. Richard Hallion, Storm over Iraq: Air Power and the Gulf War (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1992), 158.
134. See, among others, Richard Swain, “Lucky War”: Third Army in Dessert Storm (Fort Leavenworth, KS: US Army Command and General Staff College Press, 1994).
135. Bruce Watson, Bruce George, Peter Tsouras, and B. L. Cyr, Military Lessons of the Gulf War (Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 1991), 121–35.
136. Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review (London, HM Government, October 2010), www.direct.gov.uk/prod_consum_dg/
groups/dg_digitalassets/@dg/@en/documents/digitalasset
/dg_191634.pdf (accessed November 1, 2011).
137. Jonathan Rauch, “Containing Iran,” The Atlantic, July/August 2006, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive
/2006/07/containing-iran/4957 (accessed November 1, 2011).
138. Jay Solomon, “Saudi Suggests ‘Squeezing’ Iran over Nuclear Ambitions,” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2011.
139. José Cárdenas, “Why Is Iran Conspiring with Mexican Drug Dealers?” Foreign Policy, October 12, 2011, https://
shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/12/why_is_iran_conspiring_with_mexican_drug_dealers (accessed November 9, 2011).
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About the Authors
Thomas Donnelly, a defense and security policy analyst, is the director of the Center for Defense Studies at AEI. He is the coauthor of Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (AEI Press, 2010, with Frederick W. Kagan). Among his recent books are Ground Truth: The Future of US Land Power (AEI Press, 2008, with Mr. Kagan), Of Men and Materiel: The Crisis in Military Resources (AEI Press 2007, coedited with Gary J. Schmitt), The Military We Need (AEI Press, 2005), and Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Strategic Assessment (AEI Press, 2004). Mr. Donnelly was policy-group director and a professional staff member for the House Committee on Armed Services from 1995 to 1999, and he also served as a member of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is a former editor of Armed Forces Journal, Army Times, and Defense News.
Danielle Pletka is the vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI. Before joining AEI, she served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. She writes frequently on national security matters with a focus on domestic politics in the Middle East and South Asia regions, US national security, terrorism, and weapons proliferation. Ms. Pletka is the coeditor of Dissent and Reform in the Arab World: Empowering Democrats (AEI Press, 2008, with Michael Rubin and Jeffrey Azarva) and the coauthor of Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq, and Afghanistan (AEI Press, 2008, with Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan).
Maseh Zarif is the research manager and Iran team lead for AEI’s Critical Threats Project, which researches and analyzes key and emerging US national security issues. His research focuses on the security threat posed by Iran, particularly its regional activities and nuclear program, and on Iran’s internal politics. He has written on Iran and related regional issues for the Weekly Standard, Foreign Policy, National Review Online, the Daily Caller, and CNN. He is a member of the Foreign Policy Initiative’s Future Leaders Program for 2011–12. Before joining AEI, Mr. Zarif worked as a financial analyst and consultant in the private sector.
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