The Wizard and the Prophet2

  Qualms at geoengineering: Keith 2013: esp. chap. 5; Crutzen 2006 (“pious wish,” 217); Wagner and Weitzman 2012 (chemotherapy); Kintisch 2010:13 (time has come). Morton (2015) is especially good on this subject.

  Geoengineering side effects: Keith et al. 2016 (particles); Morton 2015: esp. 107–23; McCusker et al. 2014 (risks of stopping); Kravitz et al. 2014 (rainfall); Curry et al. 2014 (temperature extremes); Keith 2013:68–72; Pielke 2011 (2010):125–32; Robock et al. 2009; Robock 2008 (a brief, comprehensive negative brief).

  Rogue geoengineering: Wagner and Weitzman 2015:38–39, 116–27; Keith 2013:111–13, 152–56 (“weapons states,” 115); Victor 2008 (“on his own,” 324). The Forbes billionaire list is published annually at www.forbes.com.

  Planting eucalyptus or jatropha: Heimann 2014; Becker et al. 2013; Ornstein et al. 2009.

  Political feasibility: Becker and Lawrence 2014 (“local populations,” 32).

  Sahel drought: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, 2005—“Sahel Precipitation Index (20–10N, 20W–10E), 1900–November 2016.” Available at jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/sahel/; Hulme 2001; Mellor and Gavian 1987:235 (100,000 deaths). This is a conservative estimate. Winslow et al. (2004:5) estimated a death tally for the first famine wave alone of 200,000.

  Burkina Faso: Author’s visit, interviews, Chris Reij, Mathieu Ouédraogo, Aly Ouédraogo; Reij et al. 2005; Kabore and Reij 2004.

  Sawadogo: Author’s visits, interviews, Sawadogo, Ouédraogo, Reij; Fatondji et al. 2001.

  Jatropha calculation: Becker et al. 2013 (carbon estimates, 241). Per-capita emissions from World Bank (data.worldbank.org).

  Global greening: Zhu et al. 2016 and references therein.

  Reforesting the Sahel: Author’s visits, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali; interviews, Reij, Ouédraogo, Larwanou, Edwige Botoni; Reij 2014; Mann 2008; Nicholson et al. 1998. In East Africa, Ethiopia has permanently reforested hundreds of square miles of formerly barren land (Reij, pers. comm.).

  Rice sterility (footnote): Jagadish et al. 2015.

  Carbon farm sustainability: Bowring et al. 2014; Becker et al. 2014, 2013; Ornstein et al. 2009.

  Charcoal and climate change: Mao et al. 2012; Woolf et al. 2010 (1/8th); Mann 2008, 2006:344–49; Lehmann 2007; Lehmann et al. 2006; Okimori et al. 2003. Several sentences in this section are reworked from Mann 2006.

  Too many or too few people: Based on Wagner and Weitzman 2015: chap. 5.

  Chapter Eight: The Prophet

  Washington meeting: Memorandum, Informal Summary of Minutes of Meeting Held at the Request of Dr. Julian Huxley in the Board Room of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., at 10.00 a.m., December 23, 1947, Box 2, FF1, VDPL.

  Huxley and his family: Clark 1968. A eugenicist but (eventually) an antiracist, Huxley wanted “to ensure that mental defectives shall not have children” (1993 [1931]:98) even as he insisted that race was “a pseudo-scientific rather than scientific term”—it had no biological reality (1939 [1931]:216). Under his leadership UNESCO committed itself to combating racism, though he continued to hope that humankind would waken to the need to purge itself of “unfit” stock.

  Science-driven growth for all: Macekura 2015:17–30; Rist 2009 (1997): 69–79; Collins 2000:1–32; Public Law 79-304 (“purchasing power,” Sec. 2).

  Huxley’s fears: Macekura 2015:32–35; Deese 2015:150–54; Bashford 2014:273–78.

  Huxleys’ failures to make themselves heard: Deese 2015:155–56; Toye and Toye 2010:326–28.

  Harper’s article: Vogt 1948a (“hundred years,” 481; “million acres,” 484; “exploiters,” 486).

  Furor over Road: Sauvy 1972 (“Law of Population,” 968 [he reviewed Road in the same journal in 1949]); Memorandum, The Editorial Program, n.d. (1948), unsorted papers, William Sloane papers, Princeton University Archives (“the year”); letter, Vogt to G. Murphy, 29 Jun 1948, Box 2, FF4, VDPL (“ ‘Unclean’ ”).

  Scientists’ support for Vogt and Osborn: Bashford 2014:278–80; Robertson 2012:59; Nichols 1948 (“problem today”); Hutchinson 1948:396 (“real enough”). Ecological Society of America president Paul Sears called Road “the most convincing account of man’s material plight that has yet appeared” (Sears 1948).

  AAAS symposium: Jundt 2014a:17–26; Bliven 1948 (“Frightened People”); Department of State [1949]; [Associated Press?], “What Hope for Man?” Fitchburg (MA) Sentinel, 17 Sept 1948. At about the same time, the British Association for the Advancement of Sciences, the second-most influential scientific body, held an equally worried meeting on the same theme, addressed by U.N. Food and Agriculture head John Boyd Orr (Connelly 2008:131–33).

  Inter-American Conference: United States Department of State [1949] (“our century,” 1). Cushman (2006:348) notes the absence of birth control.

  Foundation of UNESCO, choice of Huxley: Maurel 2010:16–28; Toye and Toye 2010:322–30.

  UNESCO and “nature protection”: Holdgate 2013:30–36; Mahrane et al 2012:130–33; UNESCO 1949:9–14; Coolidge 1948; Informal Summary of Minutes of Meeting Held at the Request of Dr. Julian Huxley in the Board Room of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., at 10.00 a. m., December 23, 1947, Box 2, FF1, VDPL; Huxley 1946:45. To grab the issue for UNESCO, Huxley maneuvered past Boyd Orr at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, who wanted conservation for his agency.

  Muir-Pinchot clash: Bergandi and Blandin 2012:109–16; Miller 2001; Smith 1998; Shabecoff 1993:64–76; Fox 1981; Nash 1973 (1967):123–40, 162–81 (Yosemite as first wilderness park, 132).

  Muir quotations: Gifford 1996:301 (“the wilderness”); Muir 1901:1 (“of life”).

  Pinchot: Miller 2001 (leaves before ready, 88; “longest run,” 155; efforts to set up conference, 372–75, 441–42n); Pinchot 1909:72–73 (other quotes); 1905:2 (“wise use”).

  Dispossession at Yosemite and Yellowstone: Powell 2016:58–59, 76; Dowie 2009:4–11; Nabokov and Loendorf 2002, esp. 53–56, 87–92, 179–92, 227–36. For a general survey of indigenous environmental modification, see the sources cited in Mann 2005: Chaps. 8–9.

  Steps to U.N. conference: Jundt 2014b:44–48; Mahrane et al. 2012:4–7; Robertson 2009:33–36; Linnér 2003:32–35; Miller 2001:359–64; McCormick 1991:25–27; Nixon 1957: 2:1153, 1154, 1163–66, 1170–72; United Nations 1950:vii (Truman letter), 1947:491–92, 1947:469, 491–92 (conference announcement).

  Huxley’s plans: Holdgate 2013:18–28 (preliminary meetings), 39 (“and so on”); Wöbse 2011: 338–40; Informal Summary of Minutes of Meeting Held at the Request of Dr. Julian Huxley in the Board Room of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., at 10.00 a.m., December 23, 1947, Box 2, FF1, VDPL.

  Founding IUPN: Holdgate 2013 (1999):29–38; Wöbse 2011:340–41; Mence 1981:1–9; [Bernard?] 1948; Coolidge 1948; “green blob”: Paterson 2014.

  Vogt at Fontainebleau: McCormick 2005:179–83; Union Internationale pour la Protection de la Nature 1950 (“human ecology,” 28; “first victims,” 31).

  Huxley’s manifesto: Huxley 1946 (“scaffolding,” 8; “evolutionary progress,” 12; “world political unity,” 13). Huxley never directly mentioned birth control or abortion but his support for both is clear (45).

  Huxley’s continued conviction: See, e.g., J. Huxley, “What Are People For? Population Versus People,” address to Planned Parenthood, 19 Nov 1959, PPFA1, Box 14, FF13.

  Huxley inspired by five-year plans (footnote): Deese 2015:71–73.

  New York forum: New York Herald Tribune Forum 1948:11–46 (Osborn-Vogt session); Associated Press, “Unity-for-Peace Plea Is Renewed by Dewey,” 21 Oct 1948; Passenger Lists of Vessels Arriving at New York, 1820–1897, Microfilm Publication M237, Roll 7666, p. 75, U.S. Customs Service Records, RG 36, U.S. National Archives (ancestry.com).

  Point Four speech: Text from Truman Library (www.trumanlibrary.org).

  Point Four as surprise: Macekura 2015:26–32; Jundt 2014b: (“also strategic,” 47); Cleveland 2002:117–18 (“ ‘President meant?’ ”); Perkins 1997:144–51;
U.S. Department of State 1976, 1:757–88 (Acheson not consulted, 758n); Vogt 1949:17 (“ ‘it cost?’ ”); “Blueprints Drawn to Effect Point 4,” NYT, 6 May 1949.

  Point Four critiques: Robertson 2009:41–42 (Cornelia Pinchot); Vogt 1949 (other quotes).

  Conflict with PAU: Letter, Lleras to Vogt, 21 July 1949, Box 2, FF1, VDPL.

  UNSCCUR: United Nations 1950 (“of living,” 7; “to confusion,” 8; “enlightened,” 15); Levorsen 1950 (“world production,” 94); Hamilton 1949; Teltsch 1949; McGrory 1948 (Krug reads Vogt and Osborn). My discussion follows Jundt 2014b:48–52; one of my sentences is a rewritten version of one of his.

  ITCPN: Jundt 2014b:58–67 (“in motion,” 44; “double agent,” 53); Holdgate 2013:41–43; Wöbse 2011:341–47; Beeman 1995 (Friends of the Land); Union Internationale pour la Protection de la Nature 1950 (Osborn quotes, 17–19; Fink quotes, 215–16), 1949:68–69, 84–85 (“the economy?”); “Talks on Nature Slated,” NYT, 21 Aug 1949; “Deer in North America Starve, Wildlife Parley Is Told,” Evening Star (Washington, D.C.), 9 March 1949.

  Vogt resigns: Anonymous 1949; “Conservationist to Speak,” Evening Star (Washington, D.C.), 23 Oct 1949; letter, Vogt to Lleras, 17 Oct 1949, Box 2, FF1, VDPL; letter, Vogt to H.A. Moe, 12 Mar 1950, GFA.

  Moore: Bashford 2014:268–69 (“the Earth”); Critchfield 16–17, 30–33; Mosher 2008:36–40 (“CONFLAGRATION!,” 37); Fowler 1972; “The History of Dixie and the Dixie Cup,” James River promotional brochure (James River now owns the Dixie Cup company).

  Guggenheim and Fulbright: Letters, Moe to Vogt, 21 Dec 1950, 28 Mar 1950, GFA; Vogt, applications for 1938, 1939, 1940, and 1943 Guggenheim fellowships, GFA; ; Memorandum, Fulbright Awards for the Academic Years 1950–51: American Citizens, Fulbright Archives (libraries.uark.edu/SpecialCollections/FulbrightDirectories/).

  Scandinavian fertility laws: Connelly 2008:67, 103–4.

  Vogt in Scandinavia: Journal, Marjorie Vogt, Box 6, FF28, VDPL.

  Sanger: Good biographies include Baker 2011; Chesler 1992. See also Reed 1983 (1978): Part 2.

  Vogt at PPFA: Minutes, Annual Membership Meeting, 7 May 1952, Box 14, FF12; W. Vogt, “Report of the National Director,” 6 Mar 1952, Box 23, FF6; Minutes, Annual Membership Meeting, 23 Oct 1951, Box 14, FF11 (“better qualified”); Release, “World Population Authority Named Director of Planned Parenthood,” 18 May 1951. Box 23, FF26; Minutes, Executive Committee Meeting, 15 May 1951, Box 23, FF5; letter, R. L. Dickinson to M. Sanger, 26 Nov 1948. Box 70, FF4, all at PPFA1; letter, L. Campbell to W. Vogt, 26 Feb 1949, Box 1, FF13, VDPL. For examples of Sanger’s praise, see Sanger 1950, 1949.

  McCormick, Vogt, and the pill: Baker 2011:290–94; Chesler 1992:407–12, 430–34; Lewis 1991:107 (Bard); Reed 1983 (1978):335–45; letter, M. Sanger to K. McCormick, 23 Feb 1954; letter, M. Sanger to M. Ingersoll, 18 Feb 1954 (“his mind”); letter, K. McCormick to Sanger, 17 Feb 1954 (“mystifying”), all at PPFA1.

  Poor testing of pill (footnote): Liao and Dollin 2012; Leridon 2006.

  Vogt fired: McCormick 2005:198–202; letter, Vogt to Moe, 13 Jun 1961, GFA.

  Johanna: “Miss von Goeckingk Wed,” NYT, 27 Dec 1959; 1929 Radcliffe Prism; “Prayer Service to Open at Radcliffe,” Boston Herald, 29 Sep 1929; Enumeration District 7-155, Holyoke, MA, 1930 U.S. Census, entry for Marie von Goeckingk; Enumeration District 573, Ward 22, Kings County, NY, 1910 U.S. Census, entry for Leopold von Goeckingk. The marriage may have been in trouble for a while; the couple was taking separate vacations by 1955 (letter, Vogt to Moe, 16? Sep 1955, GFA). Summer house: letter, Vogt to Moe, 31 Jul 1962, GFA.

  Vogt’s work at Conservation Foundation: Lewis 1991:109–16 (“including man,” 113); United States Senate 1966:717–27 (“human habitat,” 725); [Vogt et al.] 1965; Vogt 1965; letter, Vogt to G. Heiner, 23 Oct 1964, Box 1, FF31, VDPL; letter, S. Ordway to Vogt, 31 Jan 1964, Box 2, FF6, VDPL; Vogt 1963 (“progress,” 13; “Latin America,” 16). The unpublished essays are in Box 4, FF14–17, VDPL.

  Denunciations of aid: Vogt 1965; Vogt 1966.

  Vogt’s last days, death: Duffy 1989; “William Vogt, Former Director of Planned Parenthood, Is Dead,” NYT, 12 Jul 1968; “Bobby’s Brood Gives Wrong Image for Victory,” Associated Press, 9 May 1968; letter, Vogt to B. Commoner, 18 May 1967, Box 1, FF17, VDPL (“being accelerated”); Obituary notice, Vogt—Johanna von Goeckingk, NYT, 29 Jan 1967.

  Population Bomb: Author’s interview, Ehrlich; Sabin 2013:10–49; Cushman 2013:272 (Vogt’s influence); Robertson 2012a:126–51; Ehrlich 2008, 1968; Tierney 1990; Goodell 1975:13–21; Webster 1969; Rosenfeld 1968. Ehrlich’s Tonight Show appearances from Wikipedia and IMDb.com. The oft-repeated claim that Ehrlich was on 20 times or more appears to be incorrect.

  Vogtian warnings: Hardin 1976 (“carrying capacity,” 134); Ehrlich and Holdren 1969:1065 (“population growth”); Platt 1969:116 (“this century”).

  Limits to Growth: Author’s interviews, D. Meadows; Meadows et al. 1972 (“by collapse,” 142; “stop soon,” 153); sales/translations from Club of Rome (the sponsors), clubofrome.org.

  Public-private network in population control: Connelly (2008) provides a remarkable portrait of the institutions in action.

  Critiques of population control: Connelly 2008; Hartmann 1995.

  Runaway population control programs: Jiang et al. 2016 (abortions); Greenhalgh 2008, esp. chaps. 4, 6 (rise of one-child policy); Connelly 2008, esp. 289–326 (“population problem,” 323); Song 1985 (influence of Western computer modelers, 2–3). An additional issue is that many Asian families, wanting a male child and only allowed one, aborted girls who would otherwise have been wanted. Estimates of the “missing” girls in China reach as high as 10 million (Ebenstein 2010: Table 2). I thank Betsy Hartmann for many discussions of these topics.

  “too many people”: Ehrlich 1968:66–67.

  Ehrlich in Delhi: Ehrlich 1968:15–16 (“of overpopulation”), 84. Vogt made the same argument in his Senate testimony, using New York’s then-polluted water and Los Angeles’s then-polluted air as examples. “Diminish the population of either city sufficiently and the problems would largely vanish” (United States Senate 1966:720). Ehrlich’s Delhi story was attacked as racist, a charge that pained him (author’s interview).

  Delhi, Paris, Tokyo population growth: Author’s interview, Narain; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2006: Table A.11.

  Hudson Valley, Europe forests: Forest Europe 2015 (current Europe forests); U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012 (available at www.census.gov); Canham 1999 (historic NY forests); Kauppi et al. 1992 (1970-1990 Europe forests); Considine and Frieswyk 1982: Table 87; Seaton 1877 (population).

  Replenishment of nature: Deer, turkey (Sterba 2012:87–89, 104–05, 150–60); Thames (see annual survey from Zoological Society of London, sites.zsl.org/inthe thames); Japan (United Nations World Health Organization 2016:Annexes 1, 2).

  Delhi/Denmark comparison: Wind-power data from energinet.dk; Delhi farm fires from worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov (1 Nov 2016, “fires and thermal anomalies” overlay); per-capita Delhi income (Rs212,219) from Economic Survey of Delhi 2014–15 (delhi.gov.in); per-capita Copenhagen income (DKK 322,000) from state website (denmark.dk); Copenhagen climate plan from the city website, www.kk.dk; WWF Living Planet Report 2014 (wwf.panda.org).

  Chapter Nine: The Wizard

  “In principle multiples”: Merton 1961:477.

  Examples of multiples: Skousen ed. 2007, 2:173 (“of the world”); Browne 2002:14–33 (Darwin, Wallace); Crease and Mann 1996:140–44 (Stueckelberg); Thompson 1910: 1:44–45 (quotes), 113.

  Swaminathan: Biographies include Dil 2004; Iyer 2002; Gopalkrishnan 2002; Erdélyi 2002. Many of his writings are collected in Rao 2015.

  Bengal famine: Ó Gráda 2015:38–91 (“the market,” 49; “the war,” 92). Refining a classic analysis by Amartya Sen, Ó Gráda concludes that the harvest shortfall “would have been manageable in peacetime…The famine was the product of the wart
ime priorities of the ruling colonial elite” (91).

  160 agriculture students: Saha 2012:xxii.

  Indian Agricultural Research Institute campus: Author’s visit, IARI.

  Nehru and science: Singh 2014; Government of India 1958; see also Nehru 1994 (1946), esp. 31–33. The decree is in Part IVA, 51A(h) of the Indian constitution.

  Nehru’s industrialization plans and agriculture: Cullather 2010:135–52ff, 198–200; Varshney 1998:25–47ff (land ownership, 29); Perkins 1997:161–75ff.

  Subsidy program: The program, authorized by the Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act of 1954—or Public Law 480—was a compromise that allowed U.S. farm states to keep subsidy-driven wheat, maize, and rice production high while disposing of the excess in Asia (author’s interviews, James Boyce; Cullather 2010:142–43).

  Swaminathan at IARI: Swaminathan 2015:1–2; 2010a:2–3; Dil 2004: Appendix IX (list of papers).

  Early wheat in Indus Valley: Fuller et al. 2007.

  Initial fertilizer and radiation experiments: Author’s interviews, Swaminathan, P. C. Kesavan; Chopra 2005; Pal et al. 1958; Swaminathan and Natarajan 1956.

  Swaminathan, Kihara, and Vogel: Author’s interviews, Swaminathan; Swaminathan 2015:2–3; 2010a:3; Crow 1994.

  JFK and Sino-Indian War: Reidel 2015: chap. 4 (“of guidance,” 119; “this subcontinent,” 138).

  Nehru’s weakness: Cullather 2010:196–97; Brown 1999:160–64.

  Foundation ends Mexico program: Rockefeller Foundation 1916–, Annual Report, 1959:30.

  Borlaug, bananas, FAO: VIET3:19–25; Borlaug 1994:iv; Bickel 1974:225–28.

  Borlaug India report: RFOI 206; Cullather 2010:192 (all quotes). In interviews, Swaminathan said that he hadn’t formed any special impression of Borlaug.

  Training program: VIET3:24–27, 35–37; Borlaug 1994:v–vi; Bickel 1974:233–36.