The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined

183. Overblown terrorist fears: Mueller, 2006.

  184. Rates of death: National Vital Statistics for the year 2007, Xu, Kochanek, & Tejada-Vera, 2009, table 2.

  185. More deaths from deer than terrorists: Mueller, 2006, note 1, pp. 199–200; National Safety Council statistics conveniently summarized in http://danger.mongabay.com/injurydeath.htm.

  186. Excess deaths from avoiding plane travel: Gigerenzer, 2006.

  187. Psychology of risk: Slovic, 1987; Slovic et al., 1982. See also Gigerenzer, 2006; Gigerenzer & Murray, 1987; Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky, 1982; Ropeik & Gray, 2002; Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, 1974, 1983.

  188. Other benefits of exaggerated fears: Daly & Wilson, 1988, pp. 231–32, 237, 260–61.

  189. Policy distortions from cognitive illusions: Mueller, 2006; Slovic, 1987; Slovic et al., 1982; Tetlock, 1999.

  190. Bin Laden bluster: “Timeline: The al-Qaida tapes,” Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/page/0,12643,839823,00.html. See also Mueller, 2006, p. 3.

  191. Kerry gaffe: Quoted in M. Bai, “Kerry’s undeclared war,” New York Times, Oct. 10, 2004.

  192. History of terrorism: Payne, 2004, pp. 137–40; Cronin, 2009, p. 89.

  193. Terrorists of the 1970s: Abrahms, 2006; Cronin, 2009; Payne, 2004.

  194. Most terrorist groups fail; all die: Abrahms, 2006; Cronin, 2009; Payne, 2004.

  195. Terrorism fails: See also Cronin, 2009, p. 91.

  196. States immortal, terrorist groups not: Cronin, 2009, p. 110.

  197. Terrorist groups never take over states: Cronin, 2009, p. 93. 6 percent success rate: Cronin, 2009, p. 215.

  198. Decency as an international language: Cronin, 2009, p. 114. The Oklahoma City death toll of 165 is taken from the Global Terrorism Database (see n. 182).

  199. Global Terrorism Database, START (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism), 2010; accessed on Apr. 6, 2010.

  200. Inclusion criteria: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2009.

  201. Increase in Islamist suicide terrorism: Atran, 2006.

  202. Proportion of deaths from Sunni terrorism: National Counterterrorism Center, 2009.

  203. Lethality of suicide terrorism: Cronin, 2009, p. 67; note 145, p. 242. Minority of attacks, majority of casualties: Atran, 2006.

  204. Ingredients of a suicide terrorist attack: Quoted in Atran, 2003.

  205. Playing the battlefield odds: Tooby & Cosmides, 1988.

  206. Cowardly warriors: Chagnon, 1997.

  207. “between the devil and the deep blue sea”: Valentino, 2004, p. 59.

  208. Support for kin selection: Gaulin & McBurney, 2001; Lieberman, Tooby, & Cosmides, 2002.

  209. Yanomamö village mates were related: Chagnon, 1988, 1997.

  210. Chimpanzee troops: Wilson & Wrangham, 2003.

  211. Perceived versus actual kinship: Daly, Salmon, & Wilson, 1997; Lieberman et al., 2002; Pinker, 1997.

  212. Cues to kinship: Johnson, Ratwik, & Sawyer, 1987; Lieberman et al., 2002; Salmon, 1998.

  213. Soldiers fight for bands of brothers: Mueller, 2004a; Thayer, 2004.

  214. Manchester on brothers in arms: Quoted in Thayer, 2004, p. 183.

  215. Why men love war: Broyles, 1984.

  216. Better odds for suicide missions: Rapoport, 1964, pp. 88–89; Tooby & Cosmides, 1988.

  217. Psychological profiles of suicide terrorists: Atran, 2003, 2006, 2010.

  218. Tamil Tiger file closers: Atran, 2006.

  219. Hamas carrots: Atran, 2003; Blackwell & Sugiyama, in press.

  220. Men do foolish things in groups: Willer et al., 2009.

  221. Sacred values and suicide terrorism: Atran, 2006, 2010; Ginges et al., 2007; McGraw & Tetlock, 2005.

  222. Testimony on suicide terrorism: Atran, 2010.

  223. Fate of suicide terrorism in Israel: Cronin, 2009, pp. 48–57, 66–67.

  224. Physical barriers to terrorism: Cronin, 2009, p. 67. Other examples include the United States in Baghdad, and governments in Northern Ireland, Cyprus, and Lebanon.

  225. Palestinian nonviolence: E. Bronner, “Palestinians try a less violent path to resistance,” New York Times, Apr. 6, 2010.

  226. Recent decline of suicide terrorism: S. Shane, “Rethinking which terror groups to fear,” New York Times, Sept. 26, 2009.

  227. Sinking favorables for Al Qaeda: Human Security Report Project, 2007.

  228. al-Odah, “fostering a culture”: Quoted in F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

  229. al-Odah, “My brother Osama”: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

  230. Favorable response to criticism of Al Qaeda: P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

  231. Mufti’s fatwa: F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

  232. Jihad as Sharia violation: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

  233. Killing innocents: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

  234. Endorsing violence against civilians: Quoted in F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

  235. Public opinion in war zones: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 19.

  236. Cratering: F. Zakaria, “The only thing we have to fear . . . ,” Newsweek, Jun. 2, 2008.

  237. Opposition to attacks on civilians: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 15.

  238. Iraq death toll: Iraq Body Count, http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/, accessed Nov. 24, 2010. See also Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 14.

  239. Sunni Awakening: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 15.

  240. The experts speak: Gardner, 2010; Mueller, 1995, 2010a.

  241. Muslim armed conflicts: Nineteen out of 36 armed conflicts for 2008 in the PRIO database involved a Muslim country: Israel-Hamas, Iraq–Al-Mahdi, Philippines-MILF, Sudan-JEM, Pakistan-BLA, Afghanistan-Taliban, Somalia–Al-Shabaab, Iran-Jandulla, Turkey-PKK, India–Kashmir Insurgents, Mali-ATNMC, Algeria-AQIM, Pakistan-TTP, United States–Al Qaeda, Thailand–Pattani insurgents, Niger-MNJ,Russia–CaucasusEmirate,India-PULF, Djibouti-Eritrea. Thirty of 44 foreign terrorist organizations in the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2008: http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122449.htm, accessed Apr. 21, 2010.

  242. Larger Muslim armies: Payne, 1989.

  243. Muslim terrorist organizations: Thirty of 44 foreign terrorist organizations in the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2008, http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122449.htm, accessed Apr. 21, 2010.

  244. Rarity of Muslim democracies: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 30.

  245. Dubious democracies: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 30.

  246. Fewer rights in Muslim countries: Pryor, 2007, pp. 155–56.

  247. Cruel punishments: Payne, 2004, p. 156.

  248. Oppression of women: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 117.

  249. Slavery in the Muslim world: Payne, 2004, p. 156.

  250. Witchcraft prosecution: A. Sandels, “Saudi Arabia: Kingdom steps up hunt for ‘witches’ and ‘black magicians,’ ” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 26, 2009.

  251. Exaggerated culture of honor: Fattah & Fierke, 2009; Ginges & Atran, 2008.

  252. Genocidal quotes: see Goldhagen, 2009, pp. 494–504; Mueller, 1989, pp. 255–56.

  253. Arab Human Development Report: United Nations Development Programme, 2003; see also R. Fisk, “UN highlights uncomfortable truths for Arab world,” Independent, Jul. 3, 2002.

  254. Insularity: “A special report on the Arab world,” Economist, Jul. 23, 2009.

  255. Muslim tolerance: Lewis, 2002, p. 114.

  256. Printing as desecration
: Lewis, 2002, p. 142.

  257. Subversive humanities: “Iran launches new crackdown on universities,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 26, 2010; http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Launches_New_Crackdown_On_Universities/2138387.html.

  258. Clash of civilizations: Huntington, 1993.

  259. What a billion Muslims really think: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007.

  260. Muslim political organizations that endorse violence: Asal, Johnson, & Wilkenfeld, 2008.

  261. Power law for terrorist attacks: Clauset & Young, 2005; Clauset et al., 2007.

  262. Time to plan terrorist attacks: Mueller, 2006, p. 179.

  263. Conjunction fallacy: Tversky & Kahneman, 1983.

  264. Counting scenarios versus summing probabilities: Slovic et al., 1982.

  265. Pay more for terrorism insurance: Johnson et al., 1993.

  266. Taylor prediction: Mueller, 2010a, p. 162.

  267. Allison prediction: Mueller, 2010a, p. 181.

  268. Falkenrath prediction: Quoted in Parachini, 2003.

  269. Negroponte and Garwin predictions: Mueller, 2010a, p. 181.

  270. Expert reputations immune to falsified predictions: Gardner, 2010.

  271. Assessing the risks of nuclear terrorism: Levi, 2007; Mueller, 2010a; Parachini, 2003; Schelling, 2005.

  272. Not so mass destruction: Mueller, 2006; Mueller, 2010a.

  273. Only three nonconventional terrorist attacks: Parachini, 2003.

  274. Nations take their nukes seriously: Quoted in Mueller, 2010a, p. 166.

  275. Pakistan won’t fall to extremists: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 19.

  276. Radioactive scrap metal: Mueller, 2010a, p. 166.

  277. Herculean challenges to nuclear terrorism: Quoted in Mueller, 2010a, p. 185.

  278. Murphy’s Law of Nuclear Terrorism: Levi, 2007, p. 8.

  279. Inevitable war with Iran: J. T. Kuhner, “The coming war with Iran: Real question is not if, but when,” Washington Times, Oct. 4, 2009.

  280. Not the end of the world: Mueller, 2010a, pp. 153–55; Lindsay & Takeyh, 2010; Procida, 2009; Riedel, 2010; P. Scoblic, “What are nukes good for?” New Republic, Apr. 7, 2010.

  281. Fatwa against Islamic bomb: “Iran breaks seals at nuclear plant,” CNN, Aug. 10, 2005, http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/08/10/iran.iaea.1350/index.html.

  282. Deadlines have passed: C. Krauthammer, “In Iran, arming for Armageddon,” Washington Post, Dec. 16, 2005. By 2009: Y. K. Halevi & M. Oren, “Contra Iran,” New Republic, Feb. 5, 2007.

  283. Ahmadinejad interview: M. Ahmadinejad, interview by A. Curry, NBC News, Sept. 18, 2009, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32913296/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/print/1/displaymode/1098/.

  284. “Wiping Israel off the map”: E. Bronner, “Just how far did they go, those words against Israel?” New York Times, Jun. 11, 2006.

  285. Predictions of consequences of North Korean nukes: Mueller, 2010a, p. 150.

  286. Unlikelihood of nuclear proxies: Mueller, 2010a; Procida, 2009.

  287. “Too precious to waste killing people”: Schelling, 2005.

  288. Climate stress as bad as nukes: T. F. Homer-Dixon, “Terror in the weather forecast,” New York Times, Apr. 24, 2007.

  289. Climate change justifies war on terror: Quoted in S. Giry, “Climate conflicts,” New York Times, Apr. 9, 2007; see also Salehyan, 2008.

  290. Climate change may not lead to war: Buhaug, 2010; Gleditsch, 1998; Salehyan, 2008; Theisen, 2008.

  291. Terrorists are not subsistence farmers: Atran, 2003.

  Chapter 7: The Rights Revolutions

  1. Rough-and-tumble play: Boulton & Smith, 1992; Geary, 2010; Maccoby & Jacklin, 1987.

  2. Recreational fighting: Geary, 2010; Ingle, 2004; Nisbett & Cohen, 1996.

  3. Deadly ethnic riots: Horowitz, 2001.

  4. Anatomy of a pogrom: Horowitz, 2001, chap. 1.

  5. Reading the Riot Act: Payne, 2004, pp. 173–75.

  6. American pogroms: Payne, 2004, pp. 180–81.

  7. History of American lynching: Waldrep, 2002.

  8. Antiblack communal violence: Payne, 2004, p. 180.

  9. Decline of rioting: Payne, 2004, pp. 174, 180–82; Horowitz, 2001, p. 300.

  10. Strange Fruit: “The best of the century,” Time, Dec. 31, 1999.

  11. FBI hate crime statistics: http://www.fbi.gov/hq/cid/civilrights/hate.htm.

  12. No more deadly ethnic riots in the West: Horowitz, 2001, p. 561.

  13. 1960s riots weren’t race riots: Horowitz, 2001, pp. 300–301.

  14. End of deadly ethnic riots in the West: Horowitz, 2001, p. 561.

  15. Ruby Nell Bridges: Steinbeck, 1962/1997, p. 194.

  16. No epidemic of hate crimes or church burnings: La Griffe du Lion, 2000; M. Fumento, “A church arson epidemic? It’s smoke and mirrors,” Wall Street Journal, Jul. 8, 1996.

  17. No fatal violence against Muslims: Human Rights First, 2008. The closest examples were (1) the fatal assault of a Danish teenager of Turkish descent, but the police ruled out racism as a motive, and (2) video footage of the execution-style slayings of two men, possibly Dagestani and Tajik, by a Russian neo-Nazi group.

  18. Policing riots: Horowitz, 2001, pp. 518–21.

  19. Discriminatory policies predict ethnic violence: Gurr & Monty, 2000; Asal & Pate, 2005, pp. 32–33.

  20. Decline of ethnic discrimination: Asal & Pate, 2005.

  21. Discrimination around the world: Asal & Pate, 2005, pp. 35–36.

  22. Discrimination in decline: Asal & Pate, 2005, p. 38.

  23. Prediction of African American rampages: A. Hacker, The end of the American era, quoted in Gardner, 2010, p. 96.

  24. “huge racial chasm”: Quote from p. 219.

  25. Bell on racism: Quoted in Bobo, 2001.

  26. Attitudes of whites toward blacks: Bobo, 2001; see also Patterson, 1997.

  27. Dropped from questionnaires: Bobo, 2001.

  28. Religious tolerance: Caplow, Hicks, & Wattenberg, 2001, p. 116.

  29. Racist Bugs Bunny: Search for “racist Bugs Bunny” on Youtube.com.

  30. Funny Face: http://theimaginaryworld.com/ffpac.html.

  31. Speech codes on campus: Kors & Silverglate, 1998. See also Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, www.thefire.org.

  32. Self-parody: “Political correctness versus freedom of thought—The Keith John Sampson story,” http://www.thefire.org/article/10067.html; “Brandeis University: Professor found guilty of harassment for protected speech,” http://www.thefire.org/case/755.html.

  33. Racial “insensitivity”: Kors & Silverglate, 1998.

  34. Rape in riots and genocides: Goldhagen, 2009; Horowitz, 2001; Rummel, 1994. Rape in war: Brownmiller, 1975; Rummel, 1994.

  35. Traditional conceptions of rape: Brownmiller, 1975; Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  36. Rape wisecrack by legal scholars: Brownmiller, 1975, p. 312.

  37. Rape wisecracks by the police: Brownmiller, 1975, pp. 364–66.

  38. Women barred from juries: Brownmiller, 1975, p. 296.

  39. Interested parties: Thornhill & Palmer, 2000; Wilson & Daly, 1992; Jones, 1999.

  40. Sexual economics: A. Dworkin, 1993, p. 119.

  41. Sexual selection: Archer, 2009; Clutton-Brock, 2007; Symons, 1979; Trivers, 1972.

  42. Harassment and rape in other species: Jones, 1999.

  43. Risk factors for rape: Jones, 1999, 2000; Thornhill & Palmer, 2000.

  44. Pregnancies from rape: Gottschall & Gottschall, 2003; Jones, 1999.

  45. Sexual jealousy: Buss, 2000; Symons, 1979; Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  46. Sex differences in jealousy: Buss, 2000.

  47. Women as the property of men: Brownmiller, 1975; Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  48. Changes in rape laws in the Middle Ages: Brownmiller, 1975. Current vestiges: Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  49. Illicit jury deliberation: Brownmiller, 1975, p. 374.

  50. Husband of rape victim: quote from Wilson & Daly, 1992. Divorce not uncommon: B
rownmiller, 1975.

  51. Evolution of abhorrence to rape: Symons, 1979; Thornhill & Palmer, 2000.

  52. Agony of violation: Buss, 1989; Thornhill & Palmer, 2000.

  53. Principle of autonomy: Hunt, 2007; Macklin, 2003.

  54. Changes in rape law: Brownmiller, 1975.

  55. Mary Astell: Quoted in Jaggar, 1983, p. 27.

  56. Newsweek review of A clockwork orange: Quoted in Brownmiller, 1975, p. 302.

  57. Kubrick: Quoted in Brownmiller, 1975, p. 302.

  58. Marital rape: United Nations Development Fund for Women, 2003.

  59. Rape taboo in video games: Personal communication from F. X. Shen, Jan. 13, 2007. Outrage at violations: http://www.gamegrene.com/node/447; http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/03/30/japan.video.game.rape/index.html.

  60. Rape may be overreported: Taylor & Johnson, 2008.

  61. Junk rape statistics: Sommers, 1994, chap. 10; MacDonald, 2008.

  62. Victimization survey: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Maston, 2010.

  63. Changes in attitudes toward women: Spence, Helmreich, & Stapp, 1973; Twenge, 1997.

  64. Abyss between the sexes: Salmon & Symons, 2001, p. 4.

  65. Men underestimate, women overestimate: Buss, 1989.

  66. Function of rape: Brownmiller, 1975, p. 15.

  67. Myrmidons: Brownmiller, 1975, p. 209.

  68. Problems with myrmidon theory: Check & Malamuth, 1985; Gottschall & Gottschall, 2001; Jones, 1999, 2000; MacDonald, 2008; Sommers, 1994; Thornhill & Palmer, 2000; Pinker, 2002, chap. 18.

  69. Marxist inspiration for myrmidon theory: Brownmiller, 1975, pp. 210–11.

  70. What guys want: MacDonald, 2008.

  71. Motives for spousal abuse: Kimmel, 2002; Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  72. Mate-guarding and domestic violence: Buss, 2000; Symons, 1979; Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  73. Women as property across the world: Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  74. Laws allowing husbands to chastise wives: Suk, 2009, p. 13.

  75. Changes in laws allowing mate-guarding: Wilson & Daly, 1992.

  76. Mandatory protection orders and prosecution: Suk, 2009, p. 10.

  77. Wife-beating no big deal, selling LSD worse than rape: Rossi, Waite, Bose, & Berk, 1974.

  78. When a man attacks a woman: Shotland & Straw, 1976.

  79. Wife-beating now important: Johnson & Sigler, 2000.