NATPAC proudly thought about how the Chinese leadership used very deep versions of these decision trees to their advantage. While the rest of the world was thinking, at best, 2-4 years ahead, which might be one node out in a country’s political decision tree, China’s leaders had mapped out the plan twenty or twenty-five nodes out – they were thinking in decades and centuries. They could do this because they did not have the burden of elections every few years like the West. We are smarter, NATPAC thought. China did not let any clown off the street get up and vote. The leaders knew what was best for everyone. NATPAC was proud that his job was to get the information that helped them make decisions.
But right now, NATPAC was using decision trees to analyze what could happen tomorrow. As he thought about it, he shifted in his chair to a more comfortable position. Tomorrow, when the Americans will try to insert this operative, he thought, if his friends in North Korea acted according to plan, the odds would favor them. If this operative makes his way to the compound, which NATPAC was still not sure he would attempt, he would be even more likely to get caught. In fact, as he mapped out the decision tree, he thought the probability of this operative succeeding had to be low. He had to land on the beach and avoid capture, make it through the land and avoid capture, get into the base and avoid capture, and make it back and avoid capture. At each node, capture became more unavoidable, if his friends followed the plan. When you multiplied the independent probabilities, the overall probability of this operative’s success had to be less than 5%. We can capture him and then learn everything we do not yet know about the CIA, he thought.
As he was more comfortable, NATPAC rose and left his office. He decided to go into the main room where his 15 hackers sat. He wanted to check on them before going home. He made his way down the dark hall outside his office and soon came to the bull-pen. His hacker-army was hard at work. He wanted to check in with his Lieutenant. His hacking skills were the strongest, hence why he was the one who found out about this CIA operation. The Lieutenant’s username was SLOTHMAN. NATPAC walked up right behind him and looked at the code on his screen.
“Any updates?” NATPAC asked.
“No,” SLOTHMAN answered. SLOTHMAN was not a talker.
“Did they figure out what we did? How we read that message. Did they see?”
“No. They are still sending out messages so they haven’t figured out what we are doing.”
“Anything about this operation tomorrow?”
“No. Most of the traffic is mundane stuff. They are sending updates to the lunch menus at the embassies. They are also sending the military information about sports scores in their country.”
NATPAC let out a conceited whiff of air as he smirked “Heh. You’re too good. You should at least let them think they are being hacked. This is like taking candy from a baby.”
“What do you mean, sir?”
“They have no idea we know about this operation tomorrow. They are proceeding with it, thinking everything is going according to plan.” NATPAC was slightly annoyed that SLOTHMAN was not keeping up. Maybe he was tired – he had a long day trying to find out more about the CIA’s plans.
“Yes, sir, that seems to be the case.”
“OK well stay on top of it. If you want to sleep here in the office feel free to do so.”
“Thank you, sir.”
NATPAC walked away. As he walked home he thought about how he had turned around what could have been a disaster to him. Now he was excited about the disaster that he would deliver to the CIA.