“Of course, 93% of all Iraqi state revenue is derived from oil. You guys are in a better place. Your economy is a little more diversified. But, we both need oil prices to rise. We’ve got to build out our infrastructure more quickly. The greatest human tragedy over the last 100 years is that our rulers pocketed all the money from Allah’s resource, made for His people.
“Allah created oil for Muslims to prosper. Instead, kings and dictators consumed it for themselves. The world is buying less and less Middle Eastern oil. Now is the time to act. Every year, Americans pump more shale oil and buy more electric cars. Europe is similar. We can’t stop the flood, but we can realign our economies before the damn breaks.”
*
“General Shields,” said Becca, “I’ve worked non-stop to replicate the Swarmbot hack. I’ve tried everything I know. I haven’t had any success. For the past two weeks, I focused heavily on Swarmlink. After a conversation with Josh, I thought there could be a hole in the peer-to-peer comms. But, Swarmlink uses the same encryption libraries as the satellite comms, AES 256.
“The Swarmbot operating system is embedded SELinux, the hardened version of Linux developed by the NSA. I’ve checked the ports and protocols, over and over. Everything is correctly configured. I don’t have an answer for you. I can’t tell you how Rahmati did it.”
“Chris, what’s Swarmbot Corporation’s opinion regarding the hack?” asked Shields.
“Ken, Hideki, and I have looked at this from every angle. Now, anything can be hacked. But, none of us know how they did it. Our best guess is that Rahmati’s team used a zero-day exploit. We just haven’t found the source of the compromise yet. We all know that Iran is very good at hacking. We think Iraq is still in the Dark Ages. But, both of them are very chummy with the Russians and Chinese. They could have received a zero-day, or zero-days, from them—there could be more than one.”
A zero-day was a never-seen-before cybersecurity attack or virus. Hackers paid big dollars for zero-days. Since they were brand new assaults, no anti-virus software was able to recognize the attack’s signature. The NSA stockpiled zero-day attacks, as did may other nations. They’d be unleashed during times of heightened tension or war. Stuxnet contained multiple zero-day attacks.
“I’ve surfed the Darknet and trolled for any attacks that resembled the Swarmbot exploit. We couldn’t find any candidate hacks. We also offered big money in the hacker chat rooms for zero-days that match our parameters. So far, no one has responded to our offer. We’re stuck. But, we all feel a zero-day attack is the most likely scenario.
“We’ve considered if someone may have placed a backdoor in the Swarmbot’s chipset. That’s a favorite technique of the Chinese. But, we source all of our chips from US factories. Nobody has reported an exploit like this.”
Becca steadied her nerves. “General, I have to bring this up. It’s the only possibility that we haven’t seriously considered. What if Rahmati cracked the AES encryption algorithm?”
“That’s impossible,” responded Shields, tersely. “The NSA certifies those algorithms.”
The General directed his gaze to Josh. “Does the AI tell us anything new?”
“As we speak, I’m working through the files that Lin had delivered from the NSA Records Center. The ones relating to Rahmati’s father are old. The records include handwritten notes that need translation. Then, I have to digitize them for eM. Did you know that Abdullah Rahmati played a role in the Iran-Contra Affair?
“Also, there was an interesting Mossad file on Abdullah. It claims that Abdullah was one of the handlers for the guy that shot Pope John Paul II in 1981, Mehmet Ali Agca. Abdullah Rahmati was quite a colorful character.
“I’m working on training eM’s neural network to understand the Swarmbot technical documentation. That’s a bigger process than ingesting the Iran-Contra documents, because I have to teach the AI to understand technical literature.”
Becca added, “I’m also reviewing the Swarmbot technical documentation again. It’s possible someone leaked those documents. Perhaps the hackers identified a latent vulnerability by reading the documentation.”
“Swarmbot doesn’t think that’s likely,” said Chris. “We’ve carefully read through the technical literature many times. But we welcome a fresh set of eyes.”
“This is all very disappointing,” replied the General. “The best answers for the compromise of my $100M investment are: an unknown zero-day attack, I’ve got a mole, or Rahmati broke the Swarmbot’s AES-256. I can’t redeploy the Swarmbots until we identify the exploit. You guys have to do better.”
In measured tones, Becca said, “General Shields, I’m concerned that our problem is bigger than the compromised Swarmbots. Your SWARM analysts tell me that all of our assets in Iraq and Persia have gone offline. What if their disappearance and the Swarmbot hack is related?”
General Shields groaned. “The CIA has lost a substantial number of human assets in Iraq and Persia. We haven’t lost all of them, but we don’t trust the information from any of them. We’ve never seen a packet of SIGINT from Rahmati, not even an email. He’s in Babylon, using new fiber that’s recently been lit. It connects him to Tehran. I can tell you that plans are being worked to rectify this situation. But Becca, it’s not like you to be obtuse. What are you saying?”
A small ahem removed the frog from Becca’s throat. “I’m not trying to be an alarmist, but it’s not just that Rahmati hacked the Swarmbots and used them to execute our crew. He knew everything about our mission; from our names, to the fact that we were looking for the Ark. He was way too prepared.
“Couple that with that fact that our HUMINT in Iraq and Persia is totally compromised, and I think we need to extend our worst case thinking. There may be no mole. It could be that he’s derived an algorithm to defeat AES-256. Not just the AES in Swarmbots—all AES 256. I know we all think that’s impossible, but we’ve got to start considering that possibility, as remote as it is.”
General Shield’s eyes glazed over. “That would be unthinkably dangerous for America. It would be like Alan Turing’s mechanical computer, the Bombe. We used the Bombe to break the code for Hitler’s Enigma machine. If Rahmati has a digital Bombe, we need to destroy it. History tells us how it turned out for Germany—once we broke their codes.”
Becca focused on the word, digital. The thought crossed her mind, What if Rahmati isn’t using a digital computer?
Chapter 38 – Quantum Probabilities
10:05 a.m. (EDT), Thursday, April 29, 2021 – Columbia, MD
Suite 502, ElectricMind’s Offices, Defense Innovations Accelerator
General Shields looked deeply into Josh’s eyes. “Tell me again Josh. I’ve set up a meeting for later this morning with POTUS. I’ve requested the attendance of the new Director of the CIA, Roscoe Tanner, and POTUS’ National Security Advisor.”
Josh was afraid the General’s hopes for eM were too high. He replied sheepishly, “eM hasn’t made as definitive a prediction as when she located the Ark—”
“I certainly can’t tell the President about the Ark,” barked Shields.
“I know. I’m just trying to manage your expectations. eM is producing statistical representations based on mathematical models as to the cause of the Swarmbot’s compromise.”
“He means,” said Becca, “all we can give you are probabilities.”
Josh continued, “Not all of the predictions are mutually exclusive. But for the sake of simplicity, let’s just say they are.
“eM lists an outright hack at a 15% probability. This prediction incorporates her search of the Deep Web and examination of zero-day vulnerabilities.
“She also thinks there’s a 15% chance that a hacker somehow exfiltrated the AES encryption keys. This was Becca’s original line of inquiry. From there, the predictions are more dire.
“eM guesses a 25% chance that the information was leaked by a high-l
evel mole or moles, with access to the Swarmbot program. If the moles exist, they are probably members of the IC, with superuser privileges. This would mean that Becca, all of the Swarmbot team, and eM have overlooked an exploit—that the hacker recognized—in the technical documentation.
“Her most disconcerting statistical prediction is the one to which she assigns the single highest probability—a 35% chance. That’s the possibility that Rahmati has created a quantum computer that he's employing to break our encryption.”
Shields got more agitated than when he’d heard it the first time. “I just can’t see how that’s possible. I thought only public key encryption was susceptible to cracking by a quantum computer?”
Becca replied, “Maybe he’s developed other algorithms, in addition to Shor’s algorithm.”
“I think eM weights a quantum computer as most probable, because we came across some interesting facts in the archived files Lin had delivered,” said Josh.
“While the main action in Iran-Contra involved American weapons shipped to Iran, by way of Israel; valuable technical information was also included in the deal. Incidentally, I can’t believe that Bush didn’t get indicted for Iran-Contra. The then Vice President was involved up to his elbows!”
Shields laughed. “If he got away with Operation 40 and J. Edgar Hoover’s letter linking him with the Big Event in Dallas, Iran-Contra was never going to touch him. He pardoned most everybody when he became President. So, what sort of technical information?”
“Back then, it was cutting edge. We sent the latest US research on computing. This included information on Intel 386 processors, supercomputers, and quantum computation. All of this data went directly to Abdullah Rahmati. By then, he was a high-ranking member of the Revolutionary Guards.
“After the Iran-Iraq war, Abdullah Rahmati retired from the Revolutionary Guards and started Iran’s computer industry. I found little on Abdullah after that. But, it’s possible his company has been researching quantum computing since then. He looks to have substantial ties to Russian and Chinese academics.”
For the first time, Josh saw an apprehensive expression sweep over General Shields. It scared Josh.
“Damn, that’s a nightmare scenario,” said Shields. “No one was supposed to beat us to a quantum computer. It’s not like we haven’t considered this development. We just thought everyone was behind us. All we possess are prototypes. We’re not even close to a fully operational quantum computer. And, we were always just concerned about public key encryption. Cracking AES was deemed impossible—even by a quantum computer. By the way, that doesn’t add up to 100%, does it?”
“No,” replied Josh, “eM has a catchall. She guesses that there is a 10% chance that there’s some unknown cause for the Swarmbot’s hack, like a backdoor in the chips or sensors.”
General Shields sighed out all the breath from his lungs. “There’s no end to the damage that Muhammad Rahmati could do to our national security with a quantum computer that can crack public key and AES encryption. He’d essentially have the full resources of the US DoD and IC at his fingertips. He’d also have visibility into every single financial transaction in the world.
“POTUS loves this guy. He thinks he’s the new savior of the Middle East. He follows his Twitter and Snapchat accounts on his phone. He subscribes to his A-Tube channel. I’ve got to find some way to make the President worry about Rahmati, preferably without talking about the Swarmbots.
“Keep up this line of inquiry. If he does have a quantum computer, I need eM to figure out its location. I’ll try to get you more information on Persia, especially right before and after the Iran-Iraq war. And, I’ll get you everything else we have on Abdullah and his conglomerate.”
*
General Shields entered the Oval Office and greeted President Goodson. The DCIA, Roscoe Tanner, was already seated on the couch in the sitting area.
The Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, known more informally as the NSC Advisor, sat on the other couch, looking at the DCIA. The presidential seal was visible on the circular blue rug.
As they rose to greet General Shields, DIRNSA recognized an unexpected visitor. The Vice President, Alexander Cain, sat in a wing-backed chair, at the far end of the sitting area. He directly faced POTUS’ Oval Office desk. VPOTUS was a former governor of California. As a one-time Texas Senator, President Goodson selected Cain to appeal to the most moderate members of his party.
“General Shields, I asked Vice President Cain to join our meeting. Later this afternoon, we have to attend a lunch engagement. I thought his knowledge of the Middle East would be helpful.”
“Outstanding,” replied Shields, as he shook Cain’s limp hand.
Shields and Cain crossed each other’s paths occasionally during Goodson’s first term. They respected one another, although Shields thought Cain to be a soft liberal, and Cain pegged Shields as a digital cowboy.
“Mr. President,” said the General, “I’ve come in person to reiterate a very troubling issue regarding the Prime Minister of Iraq, Muhammad Rahmati. Of course, we’ve all been abuzz about Rahmati. He’s achieved a level of popularity—among Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shias, and worldwide—that no one ever even imagined.
“We’ve talked about the many positive developments in Iraq. Rahmati has become the unifying leader we hoped would rise after Saddam fell in 2003. He’s nearly wiped out the Caliphate in Iraq. He’s done significant damage to them in Syria. He’s dealt fairly with the Kurds and Sunnis. Of course, he’s a major ally of Persia, but this does fit nicely with our strategy of Persian rapprochement that we kicked-off with the nuclear deal. Rahmati is the most popular leader in the region. The closest thing to him in recent memory is Nasser, in the 1960s.”
POTUS knew Shields well. He expected, maybe just one more platitude, and then the other shoe would drop.
“However,” continued Shields, “as the chief signal collector for the United States of America, I can tell you that the NSA is completely in the dark regarding Iraq. And, we know less about Persia then after the Revolution toppled the Shah.”
“Our SIGINT on Rahmati and his inner circle is less than negligible. He’s a ghost. We’ve never intercepted any communications between Babylon and Tehran, even though we’ve got pictures of Rahmati and General Javan meeting regularly. His operational security in Babylon is impeccable.
“He appears to be assembling a robust, cyber-operations division, located with him at his new Babylonian headquarters. We assume that they’re working in close coordination with Tehran. Recently, we discovered that these cyber-forces have hijacked some US systems—in ways we can’t yet explain.
“Thinking beyond just SIGINT; Rahmati seems to anticipate our every move. In my opinion, he has access to some of our most classified information. Rahmati may have spies operating at the highest levels in the US or the UK. Mr. President, our analysts think it’s very likely that Muhammad Rahmati or General Javan have cracked our military encryption.”
President Goodson looked perturbed. “Bernie, all during my first term, you were on my ass to do more about the Caliphate. As you know, that was a tricky situation. We had to thread the needle with Syria. But, the Russians and the Persians stopped the Caliphate from overthrowing the Syrian government and drove them east, into the Syrian Desert.
“Rahmati destabilized the mullahs in Persia. Then, he did more dirty work for us in Iraq. Heck, even the Europeans had to pony up cash and air power. Now, the Caliphate is nullified. And it’s only negligibly impacted our $25-plus trillion national debt. Muhammad Rahmati has done the hard work for us. He’s a godsend.” Goodson looked to his Vice President.
General Shields felt a tag-team was in play.
Cain said, “Look, we all can admit that his popularity and tight relationship with Persia is somewhat disconcerting. But, between Rahmati and Javan, we’ve got two leaders in the region that are showin
g statesman-like interest in their countries. Failed states are a breeding ground for extremists. Both of them are pouring money into rebuilding and modernizing their infrastructures. They’re not stealing the oil money; they’re sharing it with their people.
“Granted, I don’t like that Javan is essentially a dictator, but as the people’s level of income rises, the strongmen will be forced to become more progressive. The most important thing is that both of them are extremely pragmatic.
“They’re not religious fanatics. Rahmati is even-handed in his policies toward all Iraqis. Economic growth is going to give their young people opportunities to become productive citizens. For the first time in over 50 years, there’s hope for the Middle East. And it doesn’t involve America. We can pivot our attention to more strategically important regions of the world—like Asia.”
“Mr. Vice President,” said the General. “I concur with everything you’ve articulated. I’m not saying we can’t admire Rahmati. I am saying that the NSA is collecting no valuable SIGINT on Muhammad Rahmati. We went from knowing more about the state of affairs in Iraq than Iraqis—to knowing almost nothing.” Shields looked to the DCIA. He had brought his own tag-team.
DCIA Tanner added, “Mr. President, I want to highlight General Shields’ main point. Something is very wrong. The Company has lost almost every asset inside Persia and Iraq. Some of these assets passed us secrets about Saddam and the first Ayatollah. They’d been assets for 40 years.
“We have no explanation. My analysts agree with the NSA. We have a critical intelligence problem. Any assets that we have in the region can’t be trusted. Our HUMINT in Persia and Iraq is zero.”
“What options do you propose?” asked the NSC advisor.
“First, I’d suggest we loosen the spigot on cash payouts for intel,” responded the DCIA. “We need new assets in Persia and Iraq, to replace the ones we’ve lost. Secondly, General Shields and I have planned a multi-pronged mission to tap the newly laid fiber between Babylon and Persia. Hopefully, that will increase both our HUMINT and SIGINT.”