“It is obvious that the country has rejected Labour and equally obvious that the Conservatives have not won the trust of the people, either. The country has also rejected the right-wing United Kingdom Independence Party. No Party will have the right to govern alone and we will desperately need a grown-up politics to take the country forward – especially in the economic climate that we are in.
“Our antiquated voting system has finally broken down, and the early signs from tonight are that many MPs will be returned to Westminster with the mandate of about a third of their voters – that is something about which we should not, as politicians, be proud. We must do something to reform this system and ensure that you – the voters - get the representation you have voted for.
“The Liberal Democrats will take stock of the situation at the end of the night and will work with whichever Party is most willing to support Liberal Democrat policies in the next Government. I have said before that we will first talk to whomever has the strongest mandate – but it does look like no-one has received a mandate that could be termed ‘strong’ by any stretch of the imagination. Apart from that, I cannot and will not commit further until we have had the chance to take stock of what you, the voters, have told us collectively.”
Well, nothing new there, but it does look as though he’s keeping his options open as well.
“News from Pendle!” called another. “Recount. But apparently we’re just ahead.”
Another seat scrolled across the BBC News screen – recount in Harrogate & Knaresborough.
Jesus – how many tight finishes are there going to be tonight?
“We’ve missed out on Erewash by just three percent,” reported another staffer.
Jonathon, isn’t he? thought Coulson. “Then again, it was only just on the target list and we got over a six percent swing,” he said.
“That’s not bad at all, under the circumstances,” said Coulson.
Boston and Skegness caught Coulson’s eye.
I was worried about that one, but we’ve held with no problem at all. UKIP have picked up 28% of the vote – which must prove they’re robbing all of the Big Three of vote share. Because if that had all come from us, we’d have lost horrifically.
Hilton had wandered into a back room just after Huhne finished his speech and came out looking grim – and, bizarrely, holding a bottle of champagne. Two young staffers followed him out, sheepishly.
“Guess what these prats were planning,” he said.
“Well, a stab in the dark would include something to do with champagne,” said Coulson.
Hilton glared at them. “They’d been planning to wait for the result from Buckingham, and if Farage won, they were going to pop the cork and shout ‘Conservative Gain’.”
Coulson’s lips twitched. “That was very bad,” he said sternly. “Baggins is on our side until he takes the chair.”
They dissolved in laughter as Hilton rolled his eyes.
Anyway – isn’t Bag End – sorry, Buckingham – counting tomorrow? Jokers I can handle – incompetent jokers aren’t impressive, though.
Meanwhile, news came through of a recount in Blackpool North & Cleveleys, which was low on the target list.
This night is going to take forever at this rate.
The results of the past half hour had been written on the whiteboard. Labour had held Caerphilly, City of Chester, Nottingham North, Ogmore, Blackpool South, Derbyshire North East, Swansea West, Glasgow North, Swansea East, Renfrewshire East, Aberavon, Edinburgh East, Workington, Erewash, Dunbartonshire West, Barnsley East, Glasgow South West, Hull East, Nottingham South, Hartlepool, Cardiff South & Penarth, Don Valley, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Knowlsey and Neath.
They had not held Leicestershire North West, or Derbyshire South, however; these were now in the ‘Conservative Gain’ column. There were Conservative holds in Hertsmere, Lichfield, Chesham & Amersham, Hemel Hempstead, Braintree, Yorkshire East, Gravesham, Totnes, Wyre & Preston North, Spelthorne, Weston-super-Mare, Thanet North, Bexhill & battle, Suffolk Central & Ipswich North, Boston & Skegness, Surrey South West, Somerset North, Aylesbury, Clwyd West, Eddisbury, Grantham & Stanford and Chelmsford.
Coulson’s lips thinned. They’d lost Eastbourne to the Lib Dems, to go with the Lib Dem holds in Somerset & Frome, Eastleigh and Taunton Dean. He glanced at the bottom rows on the board.
Three more seats joining the current four in Recount Hell, he mused, whilst the Nits have held Perth & Perthshire North (theoretically a target seat but seriously – Scotland?) as well as Moray. Plaid have picked up another unpronounceable seat – Dwyfor Meironnydd, and across the water, the DUP have had Antrim South and Belfast North added to their tally.
At 3 am, the standings were:
Labour 80
Conservatives 49
Lib Dems 9
UKIP 1
SNP 5
Plaid Cymru 3
Sinn Feinn 2
DUP 6
Alliance 1
SDLP 2
Independent (Harmon) 1
CHAPTER TEN
30 Millbank, 3am - 4am
The next hour was a fatigued haze for Coulson. The results were coming in at the rate of about two per minute, and too many of them were close contest, with eight further recounts in one hour.
Jonathon walked up to pass on some news. “Kingswood, Basildon South & Thurrock and High Peak have come out of Recount Hell, but unfortunately all stayed red.”
Coulson nodded. Cameron’s result in Witney had been declared and the Conservative Leader was about to make his speech.
“I believe it is already clear that the Labour party has lost its mandate to govern… We will do all that we can to bring strong, stable leadership to this country…”
Hilton and Coulson listened attentively. At its conclusion, they looked at each other.
“A bit downbeat,” said Hilton.
“Well, that’s probably because we haven’t won,” said Coulson, resisting the urge to roll his eyes. “The bit about ‘putting the national interest first’ could be worrying. What’s he got in mind?”
Hilton didn’t answer. While they were pondering, Carl bustled up. “We’ve suffered a bit of a scare in Bosworth, but we held it. David Tredinnick’s majority over the Lib Dem was cut from over ten percent to just over two percent.” Coulson nodded silently.
“We’ve held Bedfordshire Mid as well,” supplied Jonathon.
“Oh? Bit of a mixed blessing, that,” said Coulson. “How did Mad Nad do?”
“Undented majority. UKIP snuck into second, but a long way behind.”
Coulson’s lips thinned.
Jonathon noticed and searched for some good news. Fortunately, with results coming in at a flurry, one wasn’t long in arriving.
“Yes – we’ve finally taken Dover!”
Coulson’s expression lightened. “That was a high target, but I guess we still had to convert it”
“Yeah - Good job by the lads in Kent,” said Jonathon. Coulson shrugged.
“Stafford’s in a recount – that’s a target seat. Bad news from Loughborough, I’m afraid – missed target; Labour held,” added Carl.
“More good news from Kent,” said Jonathon. “Dartford’s ours”
Coulson let out a snort. “We only needed a smidge of a swing there, didn’t we?”
Jonathon peered at his iPhone screen. “Yeah, so an eight percent swing was possibly a bit excessive. Pissed all over them. That takes it from marginal almost to safe seat territory.”
Coulson finally smiled.
“We’ve also got Harlow, which was also really close, but that’s stayed just as close the other way. At least it’s in the bag, though,” said Carl.
Coulson stood up. He rubbed the bridge of his nose. These results, even filtered down to just the target seats, were starting to become overwhelming.
“Newton Abbott’s in a recount,” called out an
activist from the back of the room.
“Was that a target?” asked Hilton.
Jonathon nodded. “Yeah, from the Lib Dems. A bit remote there, so I guess that would be a bonus, really.” He turned and called out to the activist. “How close is it? And who’s ahead?”
The activist looked at his laptop screen. “We’re ahead – by thirty three votes on the first count.”
Coulson let out a breath. “That’s bloody close. No wonder the Lib Dems asked for it. You’re right though, Jonathon. I’d count that as a bonus if we got it.”
Carl looked at his phone and grimaced. “Bedford’s gone final and it’s stayed comfortably Labour.”
“I guess that could balance out Newton Abbott,” said Hilton, quietly.
“If we hold on after the recount,” said Coulson.
Hilton was looking over a staffer’s shoulder at a computer screen. “The Lib Dems seemed to be doing well against Labour,” he commented.
“Yeah?” asked Coulson, only half interested.
“Yeah. Oldham East and Saddleworth’s gone to a recount between Labour and the Lib Dems. So’s Burnley. And Rochdale. Oh – and… wow!” said Hilton.
Coulson waited patiently for Hilton to expand on his expression of disbelief,
“They’ve taken Redcar! That was a safe seat!”
“I can survive Labour misfortunes quite happily,” said Coulson.
“How about ours?” asked Jonathon. “They’ve pinched Solihull from us.”
That’ll teach me to get smug, thought Coulson, saying nothing.
“Hmm,” mused Hilton, looking carefully at the screen. Coulson assumed it was an aggregation of the notable Liberal Democrat performances.
“They’ve scared Labour in Ashfield – partial recount, but Labour held it. Majority down to three figures though. They’re pressing Jacob Rees-Mogg hard in Somerset North-East as well. Looks like it’s going to a recount.”
“It’s not all one way traffic, though,” Jonathon pointed out. “We’ve scared them in Oxford West and Abingdon. Looks like Nicola Blackwood pulled a big swing to come within a couple of percent of Evan Harris.”
“Yeah, he still held though. Decent performance, though,” said Hilton.
Watford was apparently switching leaders through the count, according to one breathless young staffer. Over a period of less than half an hour, he informed Coulson that Labour were ahead – no, the Conservatives had nosed in front – no, UKIP were back in the lead – no, it was now the Lib Dems.
With one eye on Hilton, who was bound to point out any ‘Malcolm Tuckerisation’, Coulson patiently told the youngster that he didn’t really care about it until after the inevitable recount. To his crestfallen expression, he explained that he understood it was a very close four way race and he was sure the geeks would love it, but he didn’t find it swapping back and forth to be as fascinating as the youngster obviously did.
“How are UKIP doing?” asked Hilton to another staffer.
“Strong performances in Doncaster North and Bridgwater & Somerset West, but were still well back in second place,” he reported.
“They’re two rather different constituencies,” Hilton said quietly to Coulson. Coulson understood what he meant: UKIP’s attacks weren’t just taking votes from the Conservatives.
“Again, strong performances in Mansfield and in Bournemouth West, but no reward for them,” added the young staffer. “And I’ve got news from both Dudleys: North and South. It looks like they’re in with a real shout in both constituencies.”
Coulson bit his lip again. However, despite his fears, there were still no direct gains for UKIP until 3:45, when Forest of Dean declared. Congdon was now an MP.
His speech was noncommittal, pledging to work for sound finances, freedom for the individual and towards a referendum on EU membership. There were some hints of support for electoral reform as well.
“He must be seriously dischuffed that UKIP only have two seats so far,” said Coulson out loud.
As the time ticked on towards 4 am, the Conservatives fell short in the target seats of Lincoln and Hastings & Rye. Coulson chugged down yet another coffee, reflecting on the situation.
Good news from Crewe & Nantwich – Edward Timpson hung on to his by-election gain by nearly a thousand votes. Looks like we’re going to fall short in Carlisle, which isn’t surprising. Rather low on the target list. At least we got South Ribble. And Crawley – our top target. Two more in the bank.
“We’ve got some news from Scotland that isn’t bad,” said Hilton, smiling at Coulson. “Mundell’s hung on in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale, with a small swing towards him.”
“Thank God for incumbency,” said Coulson.
“And Caroline Nokes in Romsey & Southampton North has unseated the Lib Dem’s Sandra Gidley. Another Conservative gain in the targets column,” said Carl, pleased to be passing on good news.
Two more Conservative target seats came up before the hour - Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South, taken by the Conservatives, and Cleethorpes, which went to a recount.
There was some surprising news from across the water – the independent Rodney Connor (in whose favour both UCUNF and the DUP had stood down their candidates) was neck and neck with his Sinn Fein target, Michelle Gildernew and it had gone to a recount, in an apparent dead heat.
As the hour struck, the gap between the Conservatives and Labour had closed appreciably. The score that greeted Coulson as he reflexively checked the board on the hour was:
Labour 137, Conservatives 119, Liberal Democrats 23, UKIP 2, SNP 6, Plaid 3, DUP 7, Sinn Fein 4, SDLP 3, Alliance 1, Independent 1. Eleven seats were being recounted.
The Conservatives had made fourteen gains and lost one seat to UKIP and two seats to the Liberal Democrats. Sixteen target seats had come and gone without changing hands and five more target seats were in recount, together with one surprise non-target seat - Montgomeryshire.
It’s looking like it’ll be a very long night, thought Coulson.
***
30 Millbank, 4:00 am to 5:00 am
For a night where the adrenaline’s running on full tap, how come I’m also bored and tired? wondered Coulson. Probably because I can’t actually do anything; I’m simply on receive mode. There’s not much point in trying to come up with any media strategy until we know what the overall result is, what options are theoretically on the table, and what David, George and – to a lesser extent, Steve – think about it all.
On the plus side, it’s coming up to the point where the guys should roll up. On the minus side, I’ve got a horrible feeling that my interest in the Conservative strategy might come to an abrupt end shortly after they arrive. After all, a month or so ago we were looking at an overall majority being on the cards. In my defence, there wasn’t much I could have done to stop the Congdon bandwagon from screwing us over without psychic powers, but hey - politicans often don’t cope very well with disappointment. Could be scapegoat time.
Coulson forced himself to break out of the destructive mindset, and paid fatigued attention to the rapid-fire incoming results. There were a slew of safe seats and then some news from one of the Conservative key targets in Scotland.
As if that’s not a contradiction in terms tonight. Will we break the Caledonian hoodoo in Dumfries & Galloway?
The Conservative’s sole MP in Scotland from 2001 to 2005 was recontesting the seat, so would whatever held over from his old personal vote see him home? Coulson knew that the Conservatives desperately wanted to regain some traction north of Hadrian’s Wall.
Coulson found himself holding his breath despite himself as they waited for an update from Peter Duncan’s election agent. He let it out with a disappointed puff as the update finally came in. It hadn’t even been close – he’d been nearly ten thousand votes behind, without even the excuse of a UKIP surge. It had been one of
the few seats where UKIP hadn’t stood.
The St Albans result came in – he’d been concerned about this marginal seat: Anne Main’s majority was a bare 1300 votes or so.
Hell – recount again. Could I please have some good news to show Cameron when he arrived? Coulson thought to himself.
Wyre Forest was coming up. Coulson’s eyes furrowed.
What was this one? Oh yes - we’re after snatching this from the Independent-type doctor. The Lib Dems rescinded their pledge not to stand against him, so he’s facing them and UKIP as well this time, as well as us and Labour. Might split the vote and let us in. And … ah. The bugger held on by over three thousand votes. Not good.
Another target swiftly followed: Hereford & Herefordshire South. Hilton nodded at Coulson before it was called – he’d already got the news. The Conservatives had taken it – narrowly.
At least I’ve got a bit more good news for when David and George arrive.
The clock ticked round with no sign from of Cameron and Osborne arriving. William Hague had easily held on in Richmond. Labour held onto Derby North with another low score – under a third of the vote again. The Conservatives fell short in the target seat of Carshalton & Wallington, but converted the target seat of Northampton South on a big swing.
“Corby and Dudley South just going final,” reported Jonathon.
Corby – that was one of the famous A-listers. A high target seat being contested by Louise Bagshaw. Cameron would want details of this one.
It had a swing away. Coulson rolled his eyes. The A-listers weren’t doing that well tonight.
Dudley South – that was one they’d been chasing hard a month ago, but the UKIP intervention and last minute entry were expected to knock their chances. The Black Country had been very fertile ground for UKIP; he’d written it off. The agent hadn’t got back to them before the declaration, which wasn’t usually a good sign. He turned the sound up: