WILL A GIVEN STAND-UP COMEDIAN DO WELL ON A TALK SHOW NEXT WEEK? (predicted by Peter Lassally)
36 highly predictable
(This prediction ranks higher than that of a regular guest because we all share a common definition of what it means for a comedian to do well: The audience laughs. The definition of what it means for a regular guest to do well is more fluid—the audience could be informed, amused, or moved. This prediction also scores higher because a comedian’s performance can be replicated with another audience first.)
WILL THERE BE A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN LOS ANGELES THIS YEAR? (predicted by geologist, Gregory Dern)
22 mere chance
WILL THE PLANE I AM ON CRASH? (predicted by Tom Nolan, member “Million Mile Club” while flying smoothly cross-country)
24 low success prediction
WILL MY SIX-YEAR OLD LIKE A PARTICULAR FOOD? (predicted by Lisa Gordon, parent)
34 highly predictable
WILL I QUIT SMOKING NEXT WEEK? (predicted by a smoker who has quit in the past, but started again)
35 highly predictable
WHICH PASSENGER BOARDING A FLIGHT, IF ANY, WILL ATTEMPT TO HIJACK THE PLANE? (predicted by the ticket agent)
19 mere chance
WHICH PERSON IN THE FRONT ROW, IF ANY, WILL LEAVE HIS SEAT AND TRY TO GET ON STAGE DURING A CONCERT?
(predicted during show by Jeff Marquart, professional bodyguard trained in “AMMO,” Audience Management, Monitoring, and Observation)
33 highly predictable
WILL A GIVEN EMPLOYEE WHO KNOWS HE IS TO BE FIRED GO ON A SHOOTING SPREE? (predicted by David Batza, Director of TAM at Gavin de Becker, Incorporated)
35 highly predictable
WILL AN ABUSIVE HUSBAND ESCALATE HIS VIOLENCE WHEN HE LEARNS HIS WIFE HAS FILED FOR DIVORCE? (predicted by his wife)
35 highly predictable
▪ APPENDIX SEVEN ▪
QUESTIONS FOR YOUR CHILD’S SCHOOL
Do you have a policy manual or teacher’s handbook? May I have a copy or review it here?
Is the safety of students the first item addressed in the policy or handbook? If not, why not?
Is the safety of students addressed at all?
Are there policies addressing violence, weapons, drug use, sexual abuse, child-on-child sexual abuse, unauthorized visitors?
Are background investigations performed on all staff?
What areas are reviewed during these background inquiries?
Who gathers the information?
Who in administration reviews the information and determines the suitability for employment?
What are the criteria for disqualifying an applicant?
Does the screening process apply to all employees (teachers, janitors, lunchroom staff, security personnel, part-time employees, etc.)?
Is there a nurse on-site at all times while children are present (including before and after school)?
What is the nurse’s education or training?
Can my child call me at any time?
May I visit my child at any time?
What is your criteria for when to contact parents?
What are the parent notification procedures?
What are the student pick-up procedures?
How is it determined that someone other than me can pick up my child?
How does the school address special situations (custody disputes, child kidnapping concerns, etc.)?
Are older children separated from younger children during recess, lunch, restroom breaks, etc.?
Are acts of violence or criminality at the school documented? Are statistics maintained?
May I review the statistics?
What violence or criminality has occurred at the school during the last three years?
Is there a regular briefing of teachers and administrators to discuss safety and security issues?
Are teachers formally notified when a child with a history of serious misconduct is introduced to their class?
What is the student-to-teacher ratio in class? During recess? During meals?
How are students supervised during visits to the restroom?
Will I be informed of teacher misconduct which might have an impact on the safety or well-being of my child?
Are there security personnel on the premises?
Are security personnel provided with written policies and guidelines?
Is student safety the first issue addressed in the security policy and guidelines material? If not, why not?
Is there a special background investigation conducted on security personnel, and what does it encompass?
Is there any control over who can enter the grounds?
If there is an emergency in a classroom, how does the teacher summon help?
If there is an emergency on the playground, how does the teacher summon help?
What are the policies and procedures covering emergencies (fire, civil unrest, earthquake, violent intruder, etc.)?
How often are emergency drills performed?
What procedures are followed when a child is injured?
What hospital would my child be transported to in the event of a serious injury?
Can I designate a different hospital? A specific family doctor?
What police station responds to the school?
Who is the school’s liaison at the police department?
The school should have a ready answer to every one of these questions. Just the process of asking these questions (which can be done in writing) will identify those areas that have not been considered or thoroughly addressed by the school’s officials.
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Gavin De Becker, The Gift of Fear: Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence
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