Part I
1. For a history of the struggle for the NIEO, see Orlando Letelier and Michael Moffitt; The International Economic Order, TNI Pamphlet No. 2, Washington, D.C., 1977. Also Sylvain Minault; The New International Economic Order: The Promise and the Reality, Friends World Committee for Consultation, London 1977. Details of proposed commodity agreements will be found in the UNCTAD document, An Integrated Programme for Commodities, Report of the Secretary General of UNCTAD (TD/ B/ C. 11166) and the five supplements to this report. Another useful source is Barbara Huddleston, Commodity Trade Issues in International Negotiations, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. 1977. See also notes 2 and 4. Back
2. George Eads, quoted in Jere R. Behrman; International Commodity Agreements: An evaluation of the UNCTAD Integrated Commodity Programme, Overseas Development Council Monograph no. 9, Washington, D.C. 1977, p. 2-3.
(*)A spokesman for the London Metals Exchange (LME), "the world market for major metals" (including N1EO core commodities copper and tin) expects implementation of UNCTAD's buffer stock/Common Fund program "in about three or four years' time." He says, "I don't think the LME would be the slightest bit perturbed at the idea of a buffer stock system being set up," for the excellent reason that the Exchange would very likely manage it. See Geoffrey Smith, "Contangos, Backwardation and Other Dangerous Games," Forbes, 3 April 1978. Back
3. Behrman, idem, sp. pp. x-xi, p. 34, pp. 38-39. The quotation (p. 39) is based on C. Fred Bergsten; "The Policy of the United States Toward International Commodity Agreements," Statement by Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs before the Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, June 1977. Back
4. The World Bank; World Tables 1976 ("Social Indicators"). Table 3, p. 514-17; all figures for 1970. If control of capital—not just income—were included, the concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 5% would show up much more strongly and the apparently greater equality of distribution in the US and Canada would of course be sharply reduced. Back
5. Behrman, op. cit. Table 13. Back
6. Calculated from data in Helen O'Neill, A Common Interest in a Common Fund, United Nations, New York 1977, Annex p. 44. Back
7. See "Can Agriculture Save the Dollar?" Forbes, 15 March 1973. Agricultural exports represent an average 20% of total US exports. Back
8. Chase Economic Consulting Service, Confidential Report to Executives:"Special Forecast: The Long-Term Outlook for US Agriculture," New York, October 1977.
(*) An "International Wheat Agreement does exist but it is toothless and more or less limited to exchanges of information. The 1971 agreement which was to end on June 30, 1978, has been extended for a year in hopes that further discussions between producers and consumers may bring about a stronger and more effective replacement. Chase, however, nowhere suggests that any international measures will affect prospects for US wheat prices one way or another. Barring a major breakthrough in brotherly international relations, this seems the more realistic approach. Back
9.United States Department of Agriculture; Market Potential for US Agricultural Commodities in Select Mid-East and North African Countries; USDA-FAS; FAS M-269, October 1975 and Foreign Agriculture Circular, World Grain Situation, USDA FG 2-78, p. 9-10. Back
10. US Foreign Agricultural Trade Statistical Report, Calendar Year 1976, Table 34, p. 338. Back
11. Calculated from data in idem, Tables 3 and 21. Back
12. Idem, Table 25, sp. pp. 316 and 318.
13. Idem, Table 21, sp. from pp. 229-237.
14."New Corn Derivative Challenges Big Sugar as Shakeout Looms," Wall Street Journal, 2 November 1976. Back
15. Robert N. McConnell, Director, Sugar and Tropical Products Division, USDA-FAS; "The International Setting for Sugar and Sweeteners," Paper presented at the 1978 Food and Agriculture Outlook Conference, November 1977. Related data also in Thomas W. Little & Fred Gray; "US Sugar and Sweetener Outlook," same USDA conference, published in same USDA mimeographed series. Back
16."A Source of Natural Rubber in our own Back Yard," Fortune, 24 April 1978, p. 80. Back
17.Dick Griffin, "Natural Rubber has a Future After All, Fortune, idem, p. 81.
(*) Fortune does not mention Goodyear's two existing polyisoprene plants in Texas and Le Havre, France. Polyisoprene molecules are structurally identical to those of natural rubber. The only disadvantage to this artificial but truly natural rubber is its petroleum-based price. Back
18."What and Who Makes Cargill So Powerful," Forbes, 18 September 1978 and Food Product Development, cover articles for June and September 1977. Back
19. Both quotes from the UNCTAD Resolution adopted on 30 May 1976, Nairobi. (TD/RES/93 (IV).) Back
20. This observation includes the area of food aid, which is reduced when export prices rise and one of whose aims is the creation of commercial markets. See Susan George, How the Other Half Dies, chapter 8. Back
21. As noted on Table, source for data is World Bank: World Tables 1976. "Economic Data Sheet no. 1" for the percentage of agriculture in GDP; "Economic Data Sheet no. 2" for current expenditure on defense and agriculture. Sheet no. 2 also gives data on "capital expenditure on agriculture," but since these figures include loans and grants from outside sources such as the World Bank, the UNDP, etc. who themselves decide how the money is to be spent, they do not seem to me to reflect the real priorities of governments as well as do current expenditure figures. World Bank statistics are probably more reliable than others; unfortunately they are also usually old. Back
22.Dr. Moises Behar, World Health Organization, oral communication at the FAO/Scandinavian Journalists Encounter, Oslo, December 1977.Back
23.Siepko H. Lok; "Smallholders' Rubber Production," Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, FAO, Vol. 26, no. 3, March 1977.Back
24."Inflation Bites Chocolate Again," Business Week, 29 August 1977.Back