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Back in the conference room Tamanna restarted audio record. Nishat had suggested tactics on ensuring the Canadian Minister was best informed and ways to go forward with this negotiator. She tried one. “Her Excellency has decided you may represent the Minister for the Dominion of Canada at this time.”
Harry lifted his head, catching the tone. His lip twitched, the slightest smirk running over his face, but he covered the tremor with his winning smile.
Tamanna, however, had noticed.
She stared at him. “Was there something I said?”
He knew, and she knew.
The smile held. “Oh, nothing really. Look, just to be up front, we refer to our country as Canada. The Dominion of was dropped some time ago.”
Tamanna nodded slowly, “Perhaps Her Excellency refers to an earlier name to set a time context. One more appropriate. Back when your country’s lack of knowledge then, could explain its dated climate change policy now.”
Harry’s eyes narrowed. “Oh, I see.” But his smile widened. He looked at Tamanna and then Vince, emphasizing compliance. “We remain willing to represent the Minister.”
The sound of shuffling in chairs pervaded the room.
Tamanna began again. “The first point of business, then. Your Minister must realize that negotiations between our consortium and yours, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development–the OECD will no longer continue as per previous. The situation has changed. Significantly.”
Harry settled back like a practised listener.
“The Minister must realize that the HICCC decision to act came about due to OECD non-response to repeated requests. Our appeals to basic human interests and a globally focused solution have not received adequate response. Further to this non-response, we decided on a project we expect will be noticed.”
“You realize that while Canada does hold OECD membership, our country does not represent the OECD as a whole,” Harry said softly.
“That may be the official status, however, we will reveal a unique opportunity for your country. With your membership, Canada will carry a message directly to the OECD as a whole.” Tamanna looked Harry’s way calmly.
He said nothing.
“So we can speak in metaphor or stick with scientific terminology, what would be your preference?”
“We can be flexible.”
“Brilliant.” She looked to her visiscreen. “We will touch on both then.”
She stood, straightening her skirt.
“First, let us point out that we all share one planet and that to a certain degree, we have a common interest in our mutual wellbeing. Her Excellency wants to truly emphasize those two words, mutual and wellbeing.” Tamanna paused, looking directly at Harry. “With wellbeing in mind, we must all understand the true value of nature, that being our mutual life support system. We inhabit only one planet.”
She paused, touching her visiscreen. “Any comment?”
Harry shook his head absently.
“Although there was a time when nature was big and society was small, today those circumstances have reversed. A basic fact. While nature may still seem ample in northern latitudes, when we measure our planet globally we find significant carbon footprint overshoot. Led by industrialized countries like the OECD. These measurements, with repeated scientific confirmation, speak to our wellbeing.”
She paused again, waiting. The Canadian team remained silent.
“Not to beleaguer the point but simply put this sets our context. Like all countries, members of the HICCC have specific interests in the wellbeing of their citizens. What we emphasize here are the effects our mutual atmosphere has on climate change–also mutual. Our project we believe will help move negotiations along.”
Harry appeared cordial.
“Now, our engineer.”
She nodded towards Vince as she sat and he rose.
“OK, so once upon a time there was a volcano.” He gauged first reaction. “The first volcano in our story goes by the name Pinatubo–a naturally active volcano.” He detected interest, the human ear connecting to story. “Now, you may have heard of Pinatubo due to a recent eruption. What you may not have heard of are the atmospheric effects some of which jump out on any global temperature graph. Volcanic eruption can, in fact, have a cooling effect on our planet albeit short-term. So from Pinatubo we get our project name, Pinatubo II.”
Vince’s felt that excited shiver run up his spine.
“What we have going here, really, is a make-your-own-volcano project. And our HICCC client has defined five different volcanoes of interest. Each has an increasing size and by default a greater effect.”
He held a hand up five fingers extended.
“We can classify each volcano geographically. We have local, regional, national.” He held his hands close together, moving them wider as he went down the list. “Then major regional and even a hypothetical global.” He stretched his hands wide.
“Major regional would be a group of countries.” He moved his hands back in a notch. “An area like the Sahel in North Africa.”
The Canadians watched attentively.
“At this time our client’s Minister has directed we carry out sulphur release tests for both the local.” He returned his hands quite close. “And the regional.” He spread them a step wider.
“We have already created both of those volcanoes.”
He opened his hands to the middle size.
“And, we now have a green light on a Niger national release. The first country to create its very own volcano.” He grinned. “I’ll let my colleague speak more to this but I believe this is happening with solid political support.” Tami nodded confirmation. “Just to give you a little project engineer insight, the Niger national sulphur release has an expected completion date three weeks from now.”
“OK, wait, wait, sulphur release? Create a volcano? ” Harry’s pen now tapped on the table. “Can you please clarify.”
His assistant leaned towards Harry’s ear pointing to his visiscreen and speaking quietly. “Geoengineering. We have been trying to tell you, Harry, high or low, this has always been a risk. With increasing probability.” Harry stared at his assistant, then back at Vince. He turned his pen sideways, tapping now in staccato bursts.
“Vince, can you explain sulphur release as you summarize the Nigerien national,” Tamanna said.
“Sure, no problem. So back in school we all learned how a volcano works. Maybe later, any earth science class would teach a little on plate tectonics. Now, our Pinatubo eruption occurred geographically in the Philippines in 1991. A dormant volcano covered with dense forest erupts unexpectedly. Our first volcano importantly sits geologically on the edge of a subducting oceanic plate. Now we bring in a second volcano into our story named Krakatoa. This bigger volcano erupted in 1883 in Indonesia also on a subducting ocean plate.”
He paused, eyes on Harry’s bouncing pen.
“While Pinatubo adds importance to our story because she blew recently, giving us better records, Krakatoa gave us significant data due to her size. Now to the sulphur question. One volcanic emissive substance when eruption occurs on an ocean plate edge is sulphur dioxide. And this sulphur gas can be blown up into the stratosphere; that portion of our atmosphere situated way up above our weather zone. Skipping all the chemistry, once up there sulphur gas turns into a haze or aerosol. And that haze blocks a certain portion of the sun’s rays. Again, all natural.”
He looked for any glazed over eyes, detecting none.
“So our Pinatubo II project replicates that process.” He spoke slowly now. “We produce a haze in the stratosphere that blocks a certain portion of the sun’s heat. We engineer a cooling effect. We can design-a-volcano for any client, for anyone actually, anyone who wants one.” He held up a finger. “When I say replicates, well, there are differences. Unlike natural volcanoes exploding, artificials are silent. Rising in the night time too when everyone’s fast asleep. And mysteriously invisible.
So they go unnoticed, kinda like no one notices the global-average climate change.”
Vince looked at Harry.
“So that’s the sulphur release we’re talking about.”
Harry stared at his now motionless pen. “What you are talking about will screw up our entire climate.” His voice rose. “Completely.”
“You’re screwing it up right now.” Vince matched tone. He had practised.
Harry glared, but caught himself. “We could talk specific to this.”
“Sounds like you’ve already been talking. A lot. Minus any real action.”
Harry began tapping.
“One more fact.” Vince went on. “In spite of our two story volcanoes being local, that is a one mountain location, they had significant global consequences. People in Europe felt the Krakatoa cooling, but what they noticed most was a different colored sky. So, our project design, at this point our Niger volcano, will impact our global climate due to aerosols blocking out sunshine.”
Vince felt like a spin-around, like his daughter after ballet class. But he forced a professional saunter over to the window.
“If you can bear with me, just a couple baseline numbers.”
He turned to face them hands behind his back.
“For Krakatoa, global thermometers recorded a drop of over one degree, precisely 1.2 degrees. Celsius.” He paused, looking around. “Good, we all speak Celsius here. For Pinatubo, the cooling effect was less than half a degree, 0.4 degrees. So now we need to offset the global warming effect of current greenhouse gases emissions.” He grinned. “And we can do that with Pinatubo II.” He raised a paper report to show a title. “Or Pinatubo 2.0.”
“OK, hold on.” Harry cut in. “Just how much warmer are we now?”
“Now? Triple Pinatubo or 1.2 degrees so far. Same as Krakatoa.”
“And really.” Harry followed with his suggestive look. “How much difference would one or two degrees ever make?”
Vince looked at this man of politics. A negotiations opponent to spar with, could this be? He came up on his toes against the wall and spoke slowly. “Most trend estimates agree the carbon already released into the atmosphere will double that temperature increase. So we are committed to 2.4 degrees. When that happens, we’ll need Pinatubo 2.0 even more.”
“But I mean...give me a break. That kind of temperature change happens all the time.” Harry spread his palms wide. “I’m no engineer, but I would guess the heat changes that much here in this room at the touch of a button.” He pointed towards the air controls. “Or much more outside in this African heat. We all know that. Right?”
Vince looked at Harry again. He heard his wife’s voice telling him of the new Bow River valley after the Calgary floods. Freshly formed channels with gravel bars shifted to new places...quite pretty actually she had said. He spoke patiently, precisely, keeping it simple. “Look, like I said, no one feels the global-average climate. You have to be smart enough to know it’s there. Are you familiar with two degrees? What impact a global two degree increase would have?”
Harry looked to his assistant, who slowly shook his head. He resumed tapping, not speaking.
Vince took a deep breath and began his now practiced spiel on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defined two degree danger line. He made direct reference to the global game being played by humanity and the many feedback loops waiting to be triggered just past two degrees. Or before, that being a Russian roulette game of chance. There were severe weather events, rising sea levels, the drought end of the hydrological cycle, the new normal floods in places like southern Alberta.
Harry kept glancing at his assistant but holding silent.
Vince ended with the socio-political turmoil likely to come about not just globally but locally too, wincing inwardly when he thought of Annalise. His assistant leaned into Harry’s ear again. “Sulphur gases are cheap commodities.” He tightened his lips. “So any rogue nation could do this, just what he is saying.”
Harry stopped tapping, speaking back. “We budget for an improved media campaign.” He tossed his pen on the table. His assistant shook his head slightly. “Our believability to be honest is already stretched.” Harry shook his head. “Well there’s no flooding in Ottawa. Let Alberta deal with their own problems.” His assistant leaned back, silent.
Vince watched them with interest.
“So, our Nigerien artificial volcano replicates Pinatubo aerosol creation only a lot less conspicuously,” he said. “Two last items. First, we design the long term impact through continual sulphur release with a ten year timeframe now proposed for Niger. Second, we have strategic release locations spread all across this country. So up north here would be up beside the Sahara.”
He walked back to the table and pulled his chair out. “And as you would have deduced from Pinatubo, or Krakatoa, any local sulphur release has a global impact. As will the Nigerien national. Assuming cooling would impact the Nigerien landmass only is a grossly incorrect supposition. But that’s where engineering becomes politics.” He waved a hand towards Tamanna. “So at this point I step out and Ms. Meacham steps in.”
As Vince sat the room fell into silence, but for the air conditioning fan squealing faintly.
“Lovely. What Mr. Patel stated is correct,” Tamanna said. “Niger has an initial ten year plan. While the president wants one release close to Niamey for citizens to see, other release points will not be disclosed.” Tamanna rose, looking at Harry. “This plan, however, is available for adjustment into the foreseeable future as climatic and political conditions warrant. With your minister now informed Her Excellency proposes further talks on a global climate change agreement.”
“OK OK, just a minute here,” Harry said. “To start, I find it difficult to accept you represent the country of Niger. You are nothing but technical support. But just assuming you do, is Niger familiar with international agreements? Does Niger realize how irresponsible this action will be seen by the international community?”
Tamanna looked at him.
“We can review the responsibility of other national actions, say those of your country,” she said. “We could discuss the carbon pollution your country has chosen to release into our atmosphere, our mutual atmosphere, the carbon now causing direct climate change impacts. Missing monsoon rains dry up Nigerien rice fields, bring on the Ganges delta exodus in Bangladesh, and flood your own Alberta south. In fact, we would like to compare notes as we negotiate. Carbon emissions per capita for Canada versus say, Niger. So please, yes, bring that topic to the table.”
Harry retrieved his pen, squeezing it tight now. She went on.
“Might I also mention that at this time there is talk in Niger as well as in other high impact countries, of temperature reduction. Below that of pre global warming. As citizens here learn cooling is possible, they rally around their own volcano’s potential.”
“Below? Why would anyone want a colder planet?”
“National interests.” Vince put in. “Like hungry people.”
“Politicians want happy citizens,” Tamanna added. “Political points, you know. The Canadian or Russian citizen may be happier on a nice warm day, however the Nigerien people cheer on a cooler day. And let your minister know this outlook is not unique to Niger.”
“Not unique.” Harry parodied, chin dropping. “But only Niger now. Correct?”
Tamanna smiled and went on. “Did you know that during the last ice age when Canada was covered by a kilometer of ice, the Sahel was not? Not long after that time of ice sheets, the Sahel became wetter and much greener. So now, the president of Niger gains a lot of political traction when he reminds citizens of the Green Sahara. Especially when he talks of how he will bring it back.”
“Are you threatening us? What, are you threatening to throw Canada back into another Ice Age?” He glared at her. “So you can have more rain here?”
“Modifying our mutual climate can bring about unpredictable results,” she replied evenly. “And rai
n is good for crops, is it not?”
“Canada’s not just an OECD member, we’re a NATO member.” Harry scowled. “We’ll easily put a stop to this pitiful African president.”
Vince recalled the drone attempt on his life. But, he could play by other rules. “As one Canadian to another,” Vince said. “I’m telling you we’ve got to look at what we’re doing. To our children’s future, to our own future.”
“Canada has an extensive carbon capture research program with many Alberta energy companies on board. We have ongoing breakthroughs from our research teams–there’s a new lab under construction in Edmonton.” Harry spread his hands. “We’ll have a market solution any day.”
“How many tons?” Tamanna’s voice was loud and clear. “How many have you captured so far?”
Harry stared.
“Listen, I’ve spent most of my career as an oilfield engineer.” Vince matched Tami’s volume. “So don’t try telling me about Alberta. Moving all that liquid carbon dioxide would need a pipeline system as extensive as the entire Alberta oilfield production and transmission lines we have now. Carbon capture is out of synch with reality. Typical symbolic action!” Vince took a breath. “I’ve learned a few things from this non-oilfield project. Another perspective on the politics of climate change being one of them. The first world lifestyle, Canadian like mine, like yours, is highly subsidized by a free dumping ground for hydrocarbon emissions. In this situation, what we’re gonna do doesn’t count anymore.” Vince could almost hear his daughter’s not fair voice. “These countries may not be doing the best thing for our mutual planet, but they never caused climate change in the first place. And now they’re doing something.”
“Hydrocarbon energy drives near all of our civilization.” Tamanna kept her tone. “We need energy and we want cheap energy. We’ve got a dodgy situation, with a lot of inertia in both the carbon cycle and the human economy. That has to stop.”
“Everyone wants that lifestyle.” Harry demanded, shrugging back and forth between them. Then, confidently subdued, he repeated. “Everyone.”
“Yeah, well, at what cost?” Vince asked. “There are people dying here in Niger because of that lifestyle, not that we ever cared much before. But I, for one, am thinking about back home too. I’ve got my daughter’s future to think about.”
“I have two boys,” Harry said.
“Good. So take it from me, you’re raising them on a lifestyle they can’t have.”
“My boys play hockey–now that’s Canadian. We’ll never let that be taken away.” He glared. “Not from my country, not from me, not from my boys.”
A pin might have sounded as loud as a pounding fist.
Harry spoke again, now strategically. “So just how big is this Pinatubo II project?” He looked from Tamanna to Vince, with a show-nothing face.
“At this time we’re authorized to speak of Nigerien national.” Tamanna dropped her voice. “But a little political insight. There are other high impact national interests. Take what we have told you to your minister.”
The air conditioning fan wound down into off cycle.
Harry took a breath. “I’d like to request a recess to contact the Minister.”
“By all means.” Tamanna lifted her hand in a small flourish.
Harry rose and followed as his team filed out.