68. Frank Drake and Dava Sobel, Is Anyone Out There? (New York: Dell, 1994); Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, “The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence,” Scientific American (May 1975): 80–89. A Drake-equation calculator can be found at http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/
drake_equation.html.
69. Many of the descriptions of the Drake equation express fL as the fraction of the planet’s life during which radio transmission takes place, but this should properly be expressed as a fraction of the life of the universe, as we don’t really care how long that planet has been around; rather, we care about the duration of the radio transmissions.
70. Seth Shostak provided “an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy.” Marcus Chown, “ET First Contact ‘Within 20 Years,’ ” New Scientist 183. 2457 (July 24, 2004). Available online at http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6189.
71. T. L. Wilson, “The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence,” Nature, February 22, 2001.
72. Most recent estimates have been between ten and fifteen billion years. In 2002 estimates based on data from the Hubble Space Telescope were between thirteen and fourteen billion years. A study published by Case Western Reserve University scientist Lawrence Krauss and Dartmouth University’s Brian Chaboyer applied recent findings on the evolution of stars and concluded that there was a 95 percent level of confidence that the age of the universe is between 11.2 and 20 billion years. Lawrence Krauss and Brian Chaboyer, “Irion, the Milky Way’s Restless Swarms of Stars,” Science 299 (January 3, 2003): 60–62. Recent research from NASA has narrowed down the age of the universe to 13.7 billion years plus or minus 200 million, http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/mr_age.html.
73. Quoted in Eric M. Jones, “ ‘Where Is Everybody?’: An Account of Fermi’s Question,” Los Alamos National Laboratories, March 1985, http://www.bayarea.net/~kins/AboutMe/Fermi_and_Teller/
fermi_question.html.
74. First, consider the estimate of 1042 cps for the ultimate cold laptop (as in chapter 3). We can estimate the mass of the solar system as being approximately equal to the mass of the sun, which is 2 × 1030 kilograms. One twentieth of 1 percent of this mass is 1027 kilograms. At 1042 cps per kilogram, 1027 kilograms would provide 1069 cps. If we use the estimate of 1050 cps for the ultimate hot laptop, we get 1077 cps.
75. Anders Sandberg,“The Physics of Information Processing Superobjects: Daily Life Among the Jupiter Brains,” Journal of Evolution and Technology 5 (December 22, 1999), http://www.jetpress.org/volume5/Brains2.pdf.
76. Freeman John Dyson, “Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation,” Science 131 (June 3, 1960): 1667–68.
77.Cited in Sandberg, “Physics of Information Processing Superobjects.”
78. There were 195.5 billion units of semiconductor chips shipped in 1994, 433.5 billion in 2004. Jim Feldhan, president, Semico Research Corporation, http://www.semico.com.
79. Robert Freitas has been a leading advocate of using robotic probes, especially self-replicating ones. See Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Interstellar Probes: A New Approach to SETI,” J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (March 1980): 95–100, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/InterstellarProbesJBIS1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “A Self-Reproducing Interstellar Probe,” J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (July 1980): 251–64, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ReproJBISJuly1980.htm; Francisco Valdes and Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Comparison of Reproducing and Nonreproducing Starprobe Strategies for Galactic Exploration,” J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (November 1980): 402–8, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Debunking the Myths of Interstellar Probes,” AstroSearch 1 (July–August 1983): 8–9, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ProbeMyths1983.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “The Case for Interstellar Probes,” J. British Interplanet. Soc. 36 (November 1983): 490–95, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/TheCaseForInterstellarProbes1983.htm.
80. M. Stenner et al., “The Speed of Information in a ‘Fast-Light’ Optical Medium,” Nature 425 (October 16, 2003): 695–98. See also Raymond Y.Chiao et al., “Superluminal and Parelectric Effects in Rubidium Vapor and Ammonia Gas,” Quantum and Semiclassical Optics 7 (1995): 279.
81. I. Marcikic et al., “Long-Distance Teleportation of Qubits at Telecommunication Wavelengths,” Nature 421 (January 2003): 509–13; John Roach, “Physicists Tele-port Quantum Bits over Long Distance,” National Geographic News, January 29, 2003; Herb Brody, “Quantum Cryptography,” in “10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change the World,” MIT Technology Review, February 2003; N. Gisin et al., “Quantum Correlations with Moving Observers,” Quantum Optics (December 2003): 51; Quantum Cryptography exhibit, ITU Telecom World 2003, Geneva, Switzerland, October 1, 2003; Sora Song, “The Quantum Leaper,” Time, March 15, 2004; Mark Buchanan,“Light’s Spooky Connections Set New Distance Record,” New Scientist, June 28, 1997.
82.Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis, “Misconceptions About the Big Bang,” Scientific American, March 2005.
83. A. Einstein and N. Rosen, “The Particle Problem in the General Theory of Relativity,” Physical Review 48 (1935): 73.
84. J. A. Wheeler, “Geons,” Physical Review 97 (1955): 511–36.
85. M. S. Morris, K. S. Thorne, and U. Yurtsever, “Wormholes, Time Machines, and the Weak Energy Condition,” Physical Review Letters 61.13 (September 26, 1988): 1446–49; M. S. Morris and K. S. Thorne, “Wormholes in Spacetime and Their Use for Interstellar Travel: A Tool for Teaching General Relativity,” American Journal of Physics 56.5 (1988): 395–412.
86. M. Visser, “Wormholes, Baby Universes, and Causality,” Physical Review D 41.4 (February 15, 1990): 1116–24.
87. Sandberg, “Physics of Information Processing Superobjects.”
88. David Hochberg and Thomas W. Kephart, “Wormhole Cosmology and the Horizon Problem,” Physical Review Letters 70 (1993): 2665–68, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v70/i18/p2665_1; D. Hochberg and M. Visser, “Geometric Structure of the Generic Static Transversable Wormhole Throat,” Physical Review D 56 (1997): 4745.
89. J. K. Webb et al., “Further Evidence for Cosmological Evolution of the Fine Structure Constant,” Physical Review Letters 87.9 (August 27, 2001): 091301; “When Constants Are Not Constant,” Physics in Action (October 2001), http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/14/10/4.
90. Joao Magueijo, John D. Barrow, and Haavard Bunes Sandvik, “Is It e or Is It c? Experimental Tests of Varying Alpha,” Physical Letters B 549 (2002): 284–89.
91. John Smart, “Answering the Fermi Paradox: Exploring the Mechanisms of Universal Transcension,” http://www.transhumanist.com/Smart-Fermi.htm. See also http://singularitywatch.com and his biography at http://www.singularitywatch.com/bio_johnsmart.html.
92. James N. Gardner, Biocosm: The New Scientific Theory of Evolution: Intelligent Life Is the Architect of the Universe (Maui: Inner Ocean, 2003).
93. Lee Smolin in “Smolin vs. Susskind: The Anthropic Principle,” Edge 145, http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge145.html; Lee Smolin, “Scientific Alternatives to the Anthropic Principle,” http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0407213.
94. Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines, pp. 258–60.
95. Gardner, Biocosm.
96. S. W. Hawking, “Particle Creation by Black Holes,” Communications in Mathematical Physics 43 (1975): 199–220.
97. The original bet is located at http://www.theory.caltech.edu/people/preskill/info_bet.html. Also see Peter Rodgers, “Hawking Loses Black Hole Bet,” Physics World, August 2004, http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/8/7/11.
98. To arrive at those estimates Lloyd took the observed density of matter—about one hydrogen atom per cubic meter—and computed the total energy in the universe. Dividing this figure by the Planck constant, he got about 1090 cps. Seth Lloyd, “Ulti-mate Physical Limits to Computation,” Nature 406.6799 (August 31, 2000): 1047–54. Electronic versions (version 3 dated February 14, 2000) available at http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/990804
3 (August 31, 2000). The following link requires a payment to access: http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v406/n6799/full/
4061047a0_fs.html&content_filetype=PDF.
99. Jacob D. Bekenstein, “Information in the Holographic Universe: Theoretical Results about Black Holes Suggest That the Universe Could Be Like a Gigantic Hologram,” Scientific American 289.2 (August 2003): 58–65, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000AF072-4891-1F0A-97AE80A84189EEDF.
Chapter Seven: Ich bin ein Singularitarian
1. In Jay W. Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Ray Kurzweil vs. the Critics of Strong A.I. (Seattle: Discovery Institute, 2002), introduction, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0502.html.
2. Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, M.D., Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (New York: Rodale Books, 2004).
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Max More and Ray Kurzweil, “Max More and Ray Kurzweil on the Singularity,” February 26, 2002, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0408.html.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. Arthur Miller, After the Fall (New York: Viking, 1964).
9. From a paper read to the Oxford Philosophical Society in 1959 and then published as “Minds, Machines and Gödel,” Philosophy 36 (1961): 112–27. It was reprinted for the first of many times in Kenneth Sayre and Frederick Crosson, eds., The Modeling of Mind (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1963), pp. 255–71.
10. Martine Rothblatt,“Biocyberethics: Should We Stop a Company from Unplugging an Intelligent Computer?” September 28, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0594.html (includes links to a Webcast and transcripts).
11. Jaron Lanier, “One Half of a Manifesto,” Edge, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/lanier/lanier_index.html; see also Jaron Lanier, “One-Half of a Manifesto,” Wired News, December 2000, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.12/lanier.html.
12. Ibid.
13. Norbert Wiener, Cybernetics: or, Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1948).
14. “How Do You Persist When Your Molecules Don’t?” Science and Consciousness Review 1.1 (June 2004), http://www.sci-con.org/articles/20040601.html.
15. David J.Chalmers, “Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness,” Journal of Consciousness Studies 2.3 (1995): 200–219, http://jamaica.u.arizona.edu/~chalmers/papers/facing.html.
16. Huston Smith, The Sacred Unconscious, videotape (The Wisdom Foundation, 2001), available for sale at http://www.fonsvitae.com/sacredhuston.html.
17. Jerry A. Fodor, RePresentations: Philosophical Essays on the Foundations of Cognitive Science (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981).
Chapter Eight: The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR
1. Bill McKibben, “How Much Is Enough? The Environmental Movement as a Pivot Point in Human History,” Harvard Seminar on Environmental Values, October 18, 2000.
2. In the 1960s, the U.S. government conducted an experiment in which it asked three recently graduated physics students to build a nuclear weapon using only publicly available information. The result was successful; the three students built one in about three years (http://www.pimall.com/nais/nl/n.nukes.html). Plans for how to build an atomic bomb are available on the Internet and have been published in book form by a national laboratory. In 2002, the British Ministry of Defence released measurements, diagrams, and precise details on bomb building to the Public Record Office, since removed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1932702.stm). Note that these links do not contain actual plans to build atomic weapons.
3. “The John Stossel Special: You Can’t Say That!” ABC News, March 23, 2000.
4. There is extensive information on the Web, including military manuals, on how to build bombs, weapons, and explosives. Some of this information is erroneous, but accurate information on these topics continues to be accessible despite efforts to remove it.Congress passed an amendment (the Feinstein Amendment, SP 419) to a Defense Department appropriations bill in June 1997, banning the dissemination of instructions on building bombs. See Anne Marie Helmenstine, “How to Build a Bomb,” February 10, 2003, http://chemistry.about.com/library/weekly/aa021003a.htm. Information on toxic industrial chemicals is widely available on the Web and in libraries, as are information and tools for cultivating bacteria and viruses and techniques for creating computer viruses and hacking into computers and networks. Note that I do not provide specific examples of such information, since it might be helpful to destructive individuals and groups. I realize that even stating the availability of such information has this potential, but I feel that the benefit of open dialogue about this issue outweighs this concern. Moreover, the availability of this type of information has been widely discussed in the media and other venues.
5. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1990).
6. Ken Alibek, Biohazard (New York: Random House, 1999).
7. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines (New York: Viking, 1999).
8. Bill Joy, “Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us,” Wired, April 2000, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html.
9. Handbooks on gene splicing (such as A. J. Harwood, ed., Basic DNA and RNA Protocols [Totowa, N.J.: Humana Press, 1996]) along with reagents and kits that enable gene splicing are generally available. Even if access to these materials were limited in the West, there are a large number of Russian companies that could provide equivalent materials.
10. For a detailed summary site of the “Dark Winter” simulation, see “DARK WINTER: A Bioterrorism Exercise June 2001”: http://www.biohazardnews.net/scen_smallpox.shtml. For a brief summary, see: http://www.homelandsecurity.org/darkwinter/index.cfm.
11. Richard Preston, “The Specter of a New and Deadlier Smallpox,” New York Times, October 14, 2002, available at http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/specterdeadliersmallpox.html.
12. Alfred W.Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
13. “Power from Blood Could Lead to ‘Human Batteries,’ ” Sydney Morning Herald, August 4, 2003, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/03/1059849278131.html. See note 129 in chapter 5. See also S.C. Barton, J. Gallaway, and P. Atanassov, “Enzymatic Biofuel Cells for Implantable and Microscale Devices,” Chemical Reviews 104.10 (October 2004): 4867–86.
14. J. M. Hunt has calculated that there are 1.55 1019 kilograms (1022 grams) of organic carbon on Earth. Based on this figure, and assuming that all “organic carbon” is contained in the biomass (note that the biomass is not clearly defined, so we are taking a conservatively broad approach), we can compute the approximate number of carbon atoms as follows:
Average atomic weight of carbon (adjusting for isotope ratios) = 12.011.Carbon in the biomass = 1.55 1022 grams/12.011 = 1.3 1021 mols. 1.3 1021 6.02 1023 (Avogadro’s number) = 7.8 1044 carbon atoms.
J. M. Hunt, Petroleum Geochemistry and Geology (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1979).
15. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “The Gray Goo Problem,” March 20, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0142.html.
16. “Gray Goo Is a Small Issue,” Briefing Document, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, December 14, 2003, http://crnano.org/BD-Goo.htm; Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, “Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology,” Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, January 2003, http://crnano.org/safe.htm; K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, chapter 11,“Engines of Destruction” (New York: Anchor Books, 1986), pp. 171–90, http://www.foresight.org/EOC/EOC_Chapter_11.html; Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, section 5.11, “Replicators and Public Safety” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 196–99, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/5.11.htm, and section 6.3.1,“Molecular Assemblers Are Too Dangerous,” pp. 204–6, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/6.3.1.htm; Foresight Institute, “Molecular Nanotechnology Gui
delines: Draft Version 3.7,” June 4, 2000, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/.
17. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Gray Goo Problem” and “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations,” Zyvex preprint, April 2000, section 8.4 “Malicious Ecophagy” and section 6.0 “Ecophagic Thermal Pollution Limits (ETPL),” http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Ecophagy.html.
18. Nick D. Bostrom, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” May 29, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0194.html.
19. Robert Kennedy, 13 Days (London: Macmillan, 1968), p. 110.
20. In H. Putnam, “The Place of Facts in a World of Values,” in D. Huff and O. Prewitt, eds., The Nature of the Physical Universe (New York: John Wiley, 1979), p. 114.
21. Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism (New York: Times Books, 2004).
22. Martin I. Meltzer, “Multiple Contact Dates and SARS Incubation Periods,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 10.2 (February 2004), http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no2/03-0426-G1.htm.
23. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes Using Digest and Discharge Protocol,” Zyvex preprint, March 2001, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm, and “Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes,” Foresight Update no. 44, March 31, 2001, pp. 11–13, http://www.imm.org/Reports/Rep025.html.
24. Max More, “The Proactionary Principle,” May 2004, http://www.maxmore.com/proactionary.htm and http://www.extropy.org/proactionaryprinciple.htm. More summarizes the proactionary principle as follows:
People’s freedom to innovate technologically is valuable to humanity. The burden of proof therefore belongs to those who propose restrictive measures. All proposed measures should be closely scrutinized.
Evaluate risk according to available science, not popular perception, and allow for common reasoning biases.
Give precedence to ameliorating known and proven threats to human health and environmental quality over acting against hypothetical risks.