"I see what you're saying," High Ridge said, and his voice was noticeably warmer than it had been at the beginning of the meeting. Which, Janacek knew, was because he wanted to find his First Lord's reassurances reassuring.
"So do I," Descroix seconded with a vigorous nod.
"I follow your logic," New Kiev agreed, although her voice and manner were considerably cooler than those of her two colleagues. Then she paused for a moment, and Janacek held his mental breath, wondering if she were about to point out the gaping hole in what he'd just said.
"I follow your logic," she repeated, "but even granting all you've just said, I have to admit that the mere fact that they've announced the existence of these ships worries me badly. They've obviously spent years successfully concealing it, given how long it takes to build a ship of the wall, so what inspired them to voluntarily stop concealing it? And why do it at this particular moment?"
Janacek exhaled internally, his attentive expression hiding his enormous relief that she hadn't pointed out that the ONI which was confident of the RMN's technological superiority was the same ONI which had been equally confident of its numerical superiority up until approximately thirty-six hours before this meeting.
"I have to admit to concerns of my own in that regard," he told her, and turned to the Foreign Secretary. "I'm not aware of any compelling military reason for Theisman to have made this information public," he said. "Which leads me to suspect that there must be some other consideration which justifies him and Pritchart, at least in their own minds, in making this announcement. Have your people been able to come up with anything in that regard, Elaine?"
Descroix returned his bland gaze with a composure he suspected was equally false. It was obvious that she fully understood his relief at finding another target against which he might direct the attention of their ministerial colleagues. Fortunately, he thought, there wasn't very much she could do about it.
"We haven't had a great deal of time to think about it, Edward," she said with an air of reason. "Given how completely . . . unexpected Theisman's announcement was, none of my diplomatic analysts had seen any reason to allow for anything like it in their evaluations of the Republic's negotiating posture. After all, since no one had even hinted to them that these ships existed, they could hardly have factored them into their analyses, now could they?"
Her sweet smile held more than a hint of malice, and Janacek hid a mental wince as her swift riposte drew blood.
"I've spent several hours conferring with my senior people since we received the news, however," she continued in a tone which added an unspoken "of course" to the sentence. "At the moment, we see two main possibilities where political and diplomatic considerations are concerned.
"First, and simplest, is a possibility you've already raised yourself. It's been apparent for some time that Pritchart has been less than delighted with our refusal to make the ridiculous concessions her negotiators have demanded from us." New Kiev shifted ever so slightly in her chair, but she didn't interrupt, and Descroix went on smoothly. "Our best analyses suggest that Secretary Giancola is even unhappier than she is. In fact, it would be completely unreasonable for us to expect either of them not to be displeased, under the circumstances. After all, one of the realities of interstellar diplomacy is that someone is in the weaker position in almost any negotiation, and since Saint-Just sued for a truce, that someone has been the Republic.
"Obviously, Pritchart and her administration would very much like to change that. They've failed to do so at the negotiating table, and so it's very possible—even probable—that this entire announcement is designed to do so in another venue. If they've been able to offset our military advantage, or even to create a false impression that they've done so, then the entire balance of power shifts. In which case," she transferred her attention from Janacek alone to everyone else around the table, "Edward's suggestion that this might be the first step toward a new, more aggressive foreign policy stance would make perfectly good sense."
"I see." High Ridge nodded thoughtfully, then pursed his lips. "But you said that was the first possibility. What's the second one?"
"The second one," Descroix said, "is that this announcement represents an escalation of a purely internal political agenda."
"How?" New Kiev asked. Descroix glanced at her sharply, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer shrugged. "I'm not discounting the possibility, Elaine. I'm just curious about how an announcement of enhanced military capabilities could affect any sort of domestic agenda."
Her tone was conciliatory, despite the growing antipathy between her and Descroix, and the Foreign Secretary relaxed visibly.
"The internal dynamics of the Republic aren't as clear as we could wish," she said. "In large part, that's because their entire system is so new. In a lot of ways, they're still working out precedents and spheres of authority as they go along, and if they don't know exactly where the lines lie, it's even more difficult for us to know. Even so, though, it's pretty clear that Pritchart and Giancola are rivals, despite his membership in her Cabinet. As you know, he ran a fairly respectable campaign against her in the presidential election, and there are several indications that he sees foreign policy as an issue on which he might base an even more effective campaign when she runs for reelection.
"We don't have a formal ambassador to Haven, of course, but we do have extensive third-party contact with their government through several other nations' embassies and consulates. On the basis of that contact, it seems evident to us that Giancola's been pressing Pritchart to assume a more assertive stance in their treaty negotiations. Not only that, but he also appears to be in the process of establishing his own clique within their Congress and the upper tiers of the Administration, and he's using discontent with Pritchart's stance to do it."
"I assume that if we're aware of this, President Pritchart also has to be aware of it." New Kiev's observation came out as a question, and she cocked an eyebrow at Descroix.
"I'm sure she is," the Foreign Secretary agreed.
"In that case," New Kiev asked, "why doesn't she simply fire him as Secretary of State?"
"Probably because she can't," Descroix replied. "She has to consider the balance of power between domestic political factions just as carefully as we do, Marisa. Probably even more carefully, given how . . . unsettled the Republic's internal affairs have been. It's obvious that Giancola has a substantial power base of his own, and she probably figures that she can't afford to openly alienate it. Especially if he has been succeeding in strengthening it."
"All right." New Kiev nodded. "I can see that. But if Giancola's been advocating a more confrontational foreign policy, wouldn't she appear to be giving in to his demands if she adopted one?"
"That would certainly be one way to look at it," Descroix conceded. "On the other hand, she may see it as her best opportunity to undercut his power base by co-opting his position and effectively taking it away from him. Which is why I said that announcing the existence of these new ships could reflect domestic tensions even more than interstellar ones. It's entirely possible that Pritchart does intend to become more aggressive—on the surface, at least—in her negotiating stance, and that she sees Theisman's announcement as a stick she can use against us. But if that's the case, I would be extremely surprised if she were really willing to push us hard."
"Why?" High Ridge asked. "I don't necessarily disagree," he said when she glanced at him. "I'm just curious as to your reasoning."
"As Edward's just pointed out," the Foreign Secretary said after a moment, "the mere fact that they have more ships than we thought they did doesn't necessarily indicate that they've actually managed to equalize the military balance. In fact, now that I've had time to think about it, the fact that Pritchart hasn't already become more assertive in the treaty negotiations is probably an indication that it doesn't. After all, whatever we may or may not have known about their naval building policies, she obviously had full information on them all along. So if she believ
ed these new ships of the wall Theisman's just told the galaxy about really would significantly change the military equation, I doubt that she would have waited this long to stiffen her negotiating stance. Especially not if delaying such a change has permitted Giancola to do any successful empire-building inside her administration.
"Given all of that, I'm very much inclined to think that we're probably going to see a few strongly worded notes and probably some fairly emphatic news releases and press briefings from their State Department over the next few months. But all of that will probably be posturing, intended at least as much for domestic consumption as for us. Certainly, if Pritchart really intended to take a hard line in our negotiations, we'd have seen some sign of it before this."
"I have to say that that makes sense to me," Janacek put in. "And if she were truly insane enough to contemplate some resumption of active operations against us, they would have been much less likely to tell us these ships existed. The mere fact that we know about them enormously reduces the military impact they could have asserted if they'd taken us completely by surprise with them."
High Ridge nodded exactly as if he hadn't expected the First Lord to agree with anything which might make the Admiralty's Intelligence failure look even a little less ominous.
"So what you're basically saying, Elaine," he said instead, "is that you believe we can expect a certain degree of surface agitation but that the fundamental diplomatic equation remains effectively unchanged?"
"I don't know that I'd put it quite that strongly," she temporized cautiously. "That's certainly what I think right now, but at the moment our information about these additions to their navy seems to be extremely incomplete. If it turns out they really have narrowed the military gap—or even if they only think they have, whether or not they're correct—I'd have to reconsider my position."
"That's reasonable," he agreed, and turned back to Janacek.
"Assuming the ship numbers Theisman announced are accurate, and further assuming that the Republic does become more confrontational in the wake of his announcement, then I think it will be incumbent upon us to reconsider our own naval stance," he said. "How soon will you be able to recommend any appropriate changes, Edward?"
"I can't say at this point," Janacek admitted. "It's going to take time for us to verify Theisman's claims, and even longer for us to get any realistic appreciation for possible changes in their hardware. I wish that weren't the case, but it is."
"Couldn't we begin considering possibilities while we go about getting that verification?" For a change, New Kiev's question was untainted by her habitual dislike of the military. She was simply considering their options, and Janacek made himself smile at her.
"Certainly I can—and will—put my people to work considering best-case and worse-case scenarios, Marisa. And I'm sure they'll be able to give me detailed proposals for dealing with either of them. The problem is that once a set of proposals has been presented and adopted, it tends to become self-fulfilling. I think that as important as it is for us to formulate the proper response to the new situation, it's equally important that we not go off half cocked and adopt radically new policies of our own before we're certain we're justified to do so."
"I fully agree that we need to avoid panicking," High Ridge responded. "But at the same time, we can't afford to do nothing, Edward. For one thing, I think we can be confident that Alexander and White Haven and their cronies are going to insist—loudly—that this news validates their continual criticism of our naval policies."
"I know," Janacek growled in what was very nearly a snarl as the Prime Minister put an unerring finger on a consideration which had occurred to him the instant Jurgensen screened him with the information.
"Well," High Ridge continued, "when they do, we have to be ready to respond. I think it's equally important that we demonstrate not only that we're prepared to realistically modify our policies in the light of new information, but also that our existing policies have been basically sound. Which, of course, they have."
He looked around the conference room, and no one chose to dispute his last sentence.
"I understand." Janacek sighed, and sat back in his chair.
"I'm afraid that the first thing were going to have to do," he said, manifestly unhappily, "is reconsider the present naval budget. I don't want to do it, especially after the amount of grief the Opposition gave us over adopting it in the first place. Worse, I'm not at all convinced at this point that a decision to reconsider it is justified by the actual situation. Unfortunately, we can absolutely count on White Haven, if no one else, to seize upon any excuse to demand that we do so. In light of that, it seems to me that our only real option is to make it clear that we've already done it. If we take the lead ourselves, we can exert more control over the process. And if we present our own suggestions in a reasoned, calm sort of way, we may even be able to make him and his cronies look as hysterical as they actually are."
And, he added to himself, thank God that maniac Harrington isn't here to add her voice to the chorus!
"What sort of 'reconsideration' did you have in mind, Edward?" New Kiev asked, and despite her obvious intention to avoid confrontations with the First Lord, her tone bristled with automatic defensiveness of her cherished programs for "building the peace."
"There's going to be a lot of pressure from the hysterics to begin all sorts of emergency construction programs and major dislocations of existing policies," Janacek told her. "People like White Haven won't really care about the facts; they'll be too busy twisting them to their own advantage to justify the policies they wanted to put in place all along. If we want to prevent them from succeeding, then we're going to have to be willing to propose a more rational set of alternatives which will still soothe the inevitable public . . . disquiet. I have no more desire than you do to disrupt our existing budgetary priorities, Marisa, but we're going to have to propose at least some changes.
"Unless the actual situation is much worse than anything Admiral Jurgensen has so far been able to determine suggests, I think we can reasonably reject the most panicky demands. At the very least, however, we're going to have to announce that we're resuming construction on at least some of the incomplete SD(P)s and CLACs. After all, a large part of our current naval spending priorities was based on the fact that those ships are there, waiting to be finished and commissioned if circumstances warranted it. In fact, I think we'll want to reemphasize that point in order to quell any unjustified panic."
And demonstrate in the process that our policies were sound all along, he did not add aloud.
"Even assuming that Theisman's numbers are accurate, simply completing the ships already under construction will more than offset them." He continued, then snorted harshly. "For that matter, just completing the ships under construction at Grendelsbane would match every modern ship of the wall Theisman says they've built!"
His colleagues relaxed visibly at his assurance. He was relieved to see it, but he was also too experienced a politician not to cover his back.
"At the same time," he cautioned, "there's going to be a window between the time when we authorize resumption of construction and the time the ships are actually completed. I haven't got detailed projections at this point, but the rough estimate from BuShips is that it will take at least six T-months, more probably eight, to reactivate the building slips and assemble the workforce required. In addition, Mr. Houseman, Admiral Draskovic, and I are going to have to go over the manpower numbers very carefully, since it won't do us any good to build ships we don't have the personnel to crew."
"Just how wide is this 'window' of yours likely to be, Edward?" Descroix asked.
"It's not my window," Janacek replied. "It's a simple physical limitation we're going to have to live with." He held her eyes levelly for a second or two, then shrugged. "As I say, it will take around six T-months to get construction back underway. After that, we can assume between another six months and a year to complete each existing hull, depending on h
ow advanced its construction was before we halted it. So the window will be from twelve to eighteen T-months wide."
There was a sudden, profound silence in the conference room as all of them were brought face to face with the unpalatable numbers. Janacek was hardly surprised, although nothing he'd said should have come as a shock to them. The time lag was an inevitable consequence of their decision to suspend construction in the first place, and he and Houseman had both warned the others about it. They hadn't exactly dwelt on it, of course, but they had mentioned it. It was right there, in black and white, in their initial budgetary analysis, which at least meant no one who felt surprised now could blame them for it.
"That's a wider period of vulnerability than I like," High Ridge said finally. He did not, Janacek noticed, ask what the Republic of Haven's shipyards might be producing during that same period. That was a point which had exercised a considerable influence on the First Lord's own thought processes over the last day or so, but if no one else was going to bring it up, he certainly had no intention of doing so.
"I don't much care for it myself, Michael," he said instead. "Unfortunately, there's not much we can do to narrow it. Not by simply increasing our own forces, that is."
"What are you suggesting?" Descroix asked.
"I'm not suggesting anything . . . at this point," Janacek replied. "But we have to be aware of all of our alternatives, Elaine."
"And which alternative haven't you already mentioned?" she inquired, gazing at him intensely.
"We could always opt for a preemptive strike on their new ships," he said flatly.
"That would be an act of war!" New Kiev protested instantly, and Janacek ordered himself not to let his contempt show.